Customer Reviews

It's Not as Bad as You Think: Why Capitalism Trumps Fear and the Economy Will Thrive

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My ongoing series reviewing the major books written on the economic crisis of 2008 has hit an important stride. Some pivotal books on the subject have been released, or are nearing release, and I think more of the mechanical causes of the crisis are finally being discussed. Former Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, has written On the Brink, and I will have the book completed and reviewed in the next day or two. Michael Lewis, the most highly acclaimed writer to address this topic so far, releases his work this week (and expectations are high, at least for this reviewer). But the subject of my review today, Brian Wesbury's It's Not as Bad as You Think: Why Capitalism Trumps Fear and the Economy Will Thrive also belongs in the list of the truly important books to come out on the subject. This book is deeply ideological, has already proven to be prescient beyond belief, and most significantly, contains a larger perspective on the future of our economy that many other books have not concerned themselves with at all.

Wesbury is an important voice in the national conversation about the economic crisis of 2008. Unlike media talking heads, op-ed pundits, politicians, and most self-identified "authors", Wesbury actually runs money, which means he has skin in this game as it pertains to identifying what took place in 2008 and where things will go from here. That is not to say that the cadre of authors who have written about the crisis thus far are less credible; it is just to say that there are more impactful consequences for Wesbury if he gets something wrong than there is for most authors.

The book's underlying theses are: (1) The government, not the free market, deserves the lion's share of the blame for the crisis of 2008; (2) The free market, not the government, will play the major role in the economic rebound we are going to experience; and (3) It is a shame people on the right and the left do not better understand and apply both points #1 and #2.

My study of the 2008 crisis led me to agree with thesis #1 some time ago. At this point it is an incontestable conclusion for anyone doing more than a superficial glance at the events that led up to the crisis. Wesbury, though, takes a different approach than other conservative authors. Thomas Sowell rightly blames Uncle Sam for the insidious use of national housing policy to carve a social agenda. John Taylor, William Fleckenstein, Thomas Woods, and others have gone after different aspects of easy monetary policy for its role in the debacle (and all with complete legitimacy to their case). But what Wesbury focuses on more particularly (though he also joins Sowell in his harsh critique of the national housing policy which foolishly intoxicated Republican and Democratic leadership in our country the past couple of decades) is the utter disaster that was "mark-to-market" accounting.

The role that mark-to-market (MTM) accounting requirements played in exasperating the crisis of 2008 is a somewhat technical subject, but it is not as complicated as it sometimes sound. Neither Wesbury nor this reviewer are claiming that accounting requirements were at the root of the initial problem. What Wesbury does persuasively is demonstrate that what was a classic recessionary bubble burst turned into an utter financial crisis because of an accounting requirement that served no good purpose whatsoever. Defenders of the system make valid points in warning against some of the alternatives to MTM accounting, but Wesbury disects them one by one and the end result is a compelling case for what Steve Forbes began preaching before this crisis began: Forcing a company to value an asset based on what it is worth to a low-ball buyer instead of what it is legitimately worth to the holder of it is ludicrous. Fully-performing mortgage-backed securities without a single default in the portfolio were being marked down to 70 cents on the dollar (or worse), creating a snowball effect in financial institutions' needs for regulatory capital, and ultimately leading to the massive injections of capital that we now know as TARP. Wesbury does not, to my knowledge, actually suggest that no insolvencies were going to come out of this bubble burst without MTM accounting (and if he does, he would simply be wrong). His major contention, though, is that much of the systemic financial panic, and particularly the "trickle-out" effect of companies that actually had ample capital reserves and positive cash flow, was caused by requirements that forced them to move assets onto their balance sheet at distressed prices that never came close to matching reality. His example of a house two miles away from a fire being forced to be marked down to what someone would pay for it right then and there is extremely helpful. What could have been (and should have been) a painful (but not unprecedented) exercise in creative destruction (firms who made irreparable financial decisions being shed at the chopping block) morphed into a global credit crisis of write-downs and panic equity raises. Inadequate capital existed, but the death of the system was hardly a foregone conclusion until MTM accounting reared its ugly head. Wesbury blames much of the problem on the post-Enron culture we created wherein accountants, afraid of being executed ala Arthur Anderson, were held criminally liable for outcomes, but with no responsibility in the results (in other words, they did not impact the business activities at all, but did have criminal liability for the accounting of the activities). Financial institutions playing cute with their financial messes was and is a big problem, but MTM was an over-reach of massive proportions. Wesbury's chapters on this subject are worth the price of the book.

The overall point of the book goes far beyond what I have chosen to highlight above. He laments the pessimism of those who believe that economic growth is determined merely by consumption. He demonstrates empirically that in a full century of government policies that could best be defined as "all over the map", 80 out of 100 years (and 45 of the last 50) contained real economic growth. As he puts it, capitalism trumps policy. Some of the most ardent proponents of capitalism have forgotten this, or do not know what it means. Wesbury is highly critical of the present administration's attempts to reignite unionization efforts, to spend the national treasury into oblivion, and to nationalize the auto industry, banking system, health care industry, and even emissions of carbon into the environment. Wesbury does not argue that the agenda of the present administration is benign; he argues, rather, that the vast majority of it is going to fail, and that even where it is successful in doing harm, the harm will not be fatal. He argues from the clear weight of history that free markets and technological innovations have overcome burdensome government policy since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Wesbury is a faith-based, supply-side economist, which means he is innately an optimist. And there is no even decent economic mind who is not, first and foremost, an optimist. I will not explain all this in a brief book review, but it is a foundational reality that Wesbury understands.

A reading of Wesbury's 200-page book will give you a much fuller understanding of what caused the crisis of 2008. It will decimate the left's claim that the crisis proves the inadequacy of the free market system. It will give you much more color as to what really transpired, and what is likely to transpire in the decades to come. Like Wesbury, I am excited to live in the era I live in. I sure wish Uncle Sam would get out of the way to make this an even more enjoyable experience. But regardless, Wesbury knows that the history of free-market capitalism is a huge testimony to its ability to improve the quality of life for those who live in it. The taking down of this system did not take place when the leverage/credit/housing bubble of 2008 burst. And the taking down of this system will not take place under the brief reign of a Euro-radical President either.

The "Buy and Hold" strategy of investing has taken a lot of hard knocks during the past year. If you are bullish on the domestic stock market long term and don't have the time or interest in following the daily gyrations of the DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500, etc., the "buy and hold" investment strategy is the only game out there for you. "Market timing" is for suckers. But, during the last year, the bears, short sellers, and market timers looked pretty smart. The bulls, who stayed invested in the market, were left high and dry with their "buy and hope" strategy. One year ago (November 2008), "buy and hold" investors couldn't find too many voices who were still beating the "buy and hold" drum. The lone voice in the wilderness was Brian Wesbury. Some heeded his advice and stayed all in, after hearing his arguments that the recent economic crisis was the "Panic of 2008," not the "Great Depression of 2008." All of the pain we experienced was self-inflicted, and could easily be remedied with minor changes to accounting rules, such as, for example, mark-to-market accounting. Instead, conservatives jettisoned their faith in free-market principles at the first sign of trouble, and liberals saw an opportunity to introduce government solutions. The result has been a longer, deeper recession.

Fast forward one year later, Brian Wesbury has released his book, It's Not as Bad as you Think, which encapsulates the arguments behind his initial diagnosis of the economic crisis. But, this time around, his argument is bolstered by the "real events" of 2009, described as a V-shaped recovery in the stock market. Of course, we're not at 14K yet, but the domestic stock market has come a long way from the dark days of March 2009, when everyone saw black. Three things have helped this recovery: relaxation of the mark-to-market accounting rules, corporate profits, and easy Fed money. These three factors are not going away soon, and Wesbury indicates that future traumatic events, like the passage of a costly healthcare reform bill and higher taxes, have already been factored into the market. If you've been paying attention since March, you had the opportunity to make more than the bears and market timers, and you will continue to. According to Wesbury, the bears predicted this down market, but they did so for all the wrong reasons. His book, on the other hand, vindicates the "buy and hold" strategy, which is based on confidence in the productivity of the American people. In this way, it provides chicken soup for the long term investor's soul.

Wesbury's book is a thorough and detailed look at the recent market crisis of 2008. Each chapter will lead you through what he feels was the ultimate culprit for the panic and the good news is you won't get lost in all of the rhetoric. Wesbury has a humble and wise voice that is easy to follow. And I think if you give this book a fare shake you may just change many of your widely held beliefs. And while it's true that even now in 2010 (when I wrote this review) there is still massive unemployment and bleak outlooks for some there are still "tremendous opportunities available for those who can look at what appears to be chaos from a different perspective than the conventional wisdom."

Wesbury explains the federal reserve, inflation, capitalism and the role government(should)play in a healthy economy. So if you are still pessimistic about the future of America, stocks, the economy or the housing market then I implore you to read this book and begin to change the negative narrative that seems to be rampant right now.

There are people out there that want you to believe that this all happened because of "market failure. They want you to believe that capitalism is unstable, that the entire U.S. economy is built upon shifting sand. They want you to believe that business can't be trusted but government can be." But these things are all systems - and systems left to their own devices can not cause good nor evil.

Ultimately it is people who are responsible - people who make poor choices and people who follow poor decision makers. Capitalism is not to blame for this - capitalism is an "organic method of arranging the economy that has proven itself over the centuries."

"Capitalism did not fail - it never fails." The United States is "a very resilient country" and in the end it will be the optimists and the entrepreneurs who are left still standing when the smoke clears - and chances are - they will be standing on a huge pile of money.

This book is an excellent read; easy to follow charts, language and analogies. I highly recommend reading this book in these tough economic times where we are trying to understand what's happening and what has happened, Mr. Wesbury puts in all in perspective and lays it out for us as readers, consumers and investors to understand, why..."It's Not As Bad As You Think", after you read his book.


It's Not as Bad as You Think: Why Capitalism Trumps Fear and the Economy Will Thrive

I stumbled across Brian Wesbury on David Horowitz's website, and the video impressed me so much that I ordered the book right away. I think this is absolutely essential reading for investors --- and for anyone interested in what caused the Panic of 2008. By Wesbury's analysis, the first major villain was Alan Greenspan and his continuously low interest rates. None of the rest of the nonsense --- subprime mortgages, no-down-payment mortgages, the housing bubble --- could have happened without those absurdly low interest rates. The second major villain was mark-to-market accounting rules, which were finally overthrown AFTER the Panic of 2008 was well underway. His third major villain is George W. Bush, for making a speech which terrified people ("You may lose your job...you may lose your house...") and did the very opposite of what needed to be done.

That's a VERY short version of the high points of a fascinating book.

Highest possible recommendation!

Brian Wesbury has finally exposed the myths perpetrated by the "pouting pundits of pessimism" that free-market capitalism has failed. This is an inspiring book that will help you to understand what really transpired in our economy and markets in 2008. And, why we should be confident that 2010 and beyond will clearly demonstrate that, if left alone by government regulation and interference, our economy and markets will continue to provide the abundance and prosperity we all seek for ourselves and our families.

Read this book and you will understand why the housing bubble occurred. The causes stated in the popular press are off base. Everyone should read this book before voting in the next election. Do any candidates even have a clue?

This is a fantastic book! I've been followin Brian for sometime now, and he as been all over this recession. I don't think there has been an economist who has been more accurate during the recovery than Brian. In my opinion, he has given the most accurate descriptions on why the economy went into a recession (panic) and why/how it would come out of the recession. You can check his website, but I have him saved on video as early as November 2008 saying that this would be a "V" shaped recovery and in March '09 (when everything was in chaos) saying we would have 3-4% GDP growth for the second half of '09.
Highly recommended and is a very easy read!!

An excellent analysis of the recent downturn and recovery, and valuable information for investors going forward. If you are an investor and only read one book, this is it.

Having followed Wesbury's work for many years, I am very impressed by this book. A book like this should be required reading for journalists, politicians and college professors.