The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Paperback)

~ (Author)
Key Phrases: slide toward instability, open governance, closed regime, North Korea, South Africa, Saudi Arabia (more...)

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

With this timely book, political risk consultant Bremmer aims to "describe the political and economic forces that revitalize some states and push others toward collapse." His simple premise is that if one were to graph a nation's stability as a function of its openness, the result would be a "J curve," suggesting that as nations become more open, they become less stable until they eventually surpass their initial levels of stability. In other words, a closed society like Cuba is relatively stable; a more open society like Saudi Arabia is less so; and an extremely open society like the United States is extremely stable. Bremmer expertly distills decades—sometimes centuries—of history as he analyzes 10 countries at different positions on the J curve. North Korea is perhaps the most disturbing example of the left side of the curve, where a closed authoritarian regime produces effective stability; on the right of the curve sit stable countries like Turkey, Israel and India. This leads Bremmer to conclude that political isolation and sanctions often work against their intended resultsand that globalization is the key to opening closed authoritarian states. Bremmer persuasively illustrates his core thesis without eliding the complexities of global or national politics. (Sept.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

From Booklist

On a graph on which the vertical axis measures a nation's stability and the horizontal axis measures its relative openness to external political and economic forces, the "J curve" plots the trajectory nations must take as they move from authoritarian control toward liberal democracy (or vice versa). Essentially, the curve is a graphical representation of the commonsense proposition that governments moving toward or away from authoritarianism must necessarily survive a "slide toward instability" as their institutions of governance are broken down and then reformed in new configurations. In Bremmer's hands, however, the J curve is a powerful heuristic that is capable of clarifying the persistent dilemma of how to nudge nations toward openness while sparing their citizens--and the world--the chaos that accompanies such transitions. In part, the J curve is effective because it explains why authoritarian states (like North Korea, on the curve's far left) are often more stable than relatively young liberal democracies (like South Africa and Russia); it may also show the fallacy of trying to undermine authoritarian states though isolation. A quick, fascinating read. Brendan Driscoll
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 336 pages
• Publisher: Simon & Schuster (September 11, 2007)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0743274725
• ISBN-13: 978-0743274722
• Product Dimensions: 9.4 x 6.2 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 11.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (36 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #47,780 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

17 of 17 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars May you live in interesting times, September 16, 2006

By	Mary Byron (Tokyo, Japan) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This review is from: The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Hardcover)

This is a timely and thought-provoking book for anyone who wants to better understand our rapidly changing world but is required reading for anyone leading an institution - public sector or private - at the forefront of globalization. Ian Bremmer argues that none of us can afford to ignore the risks created by failing and failed nations in a world where disease, terrorism, refugees and weapons of mass destruction can cross borders more easily than ever before. The complex dynamics of openness and stability brought by globalization are challenging all societies, markets and governments in new ways. This book provides an excellent framework for understanding the journey.

The J-Curve is an innovative approach to mapping these complex dynamics to the behavior of governments around the world. Much of what has been written to date has focused solely on the economic and social impacts of globalization. This book synthesizes those impacts and explains how they can undermine or strengthen a nation depending on where it is on the J-Curve. Understanding the political decision-making and the forces within their societies that are motivating these governments is the crucial missing piece of the puzzle laid out in the J-Curve.

His insightful analysis distills the history and the current political, social and economic forces in the countries most relevant to the world economy and global stability - North Korea, Iran, Russia, Saudia Arabia, Turkey, China and more. Ian not only explains where they are but provides a framework to interpret current events and understand in which direction they are headed on the J-Curve.

I find myself interpreting news in a new way after reading this book. Three environmental disasters in China this week and the government response is to tighten controls on journalism, a clear move up the left side. Opium production at record highs in Afghanistan - we are still aren't through the bottom of the curve. While he does provide some foreign policy prescriptions, you are ultimately left with an understanding of the limits of foreign policy in our increasingly complex world and the dangers in not providing enough of the right assistance to the nations most at risk.

29 of 33 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars smart, persuasive, engaged, September 8, 2006

By	Marci Shore - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This review is from: The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Hardcover)

The central argument of The J Curve is quite persuasive: the path from authoritarian "closed" societies to democratic "open" ones leads through a "dip in the curve"--that is, a prolonged moment of dangerous instability. In this way, authoritarian societies that begin to democraticize become paradoxically more unstable in the early stages of "opening." The J Curve is an explanatory model. But the book is normative as well: If "closed" states are ultimately to emerge on the other, "open" side of the curve, they require sustained international support, in particular from Western democracies.

The J Curve is the work of a once precocious Sovietologist whose political education came inside a disintegrating Soviet Union-turned-dazzlingly successful president of a political risk consulting firm whose now experience extends far beyond former Soviet borders. Ian Bremmer's prose is lively, sharp and eminently accessible--free of both academic and policy jargon. His voice is a human one, and strikes a rare balance: devoid of sentimentality, but marked by an authentic concern about the human condition.

26 of 32 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Should Have Been Condensed to a Magazine Article, September 5, 2006

By	Loyd E. Eskildson "Pragmatist" (Phoenix, AZ.) - See all my reviews (TOP 100 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

This review is from: The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Hardcover)

Bremmer contends that political stability can be achieved through a closed society (eg. North Korea), and even more so through an open society (eg. U.S., Japan, Sweden). In between, lies political instability - hence, stability plotted on the Y-axis (vs. openness on the x-axis) would resemble a "J curve."

Maintaining stability in a closed society requires limiting access to outside ideas (eg. purge "liberals" and intellectuals, ban/limit satellite dishes, Internet access, foreign trade, foreign films, outside books and magazines, cell phones, etc.), internal police (eg. KGB in the old U.S.S.R., Hussein's spies). Stability exists in open societies because their citizens know that political and social problems will be resolved by legitimate institutions. The "bad news" is that authoritarian elites cannot be quickly replaced by widely accepted institutions - it takes time for those new institutions to demonstrate credibility and gain strength over individuals that seek to make themselves dominant; it is easier to reestablish order by declaring martial law than increasing freedom.

Bremmer then uses these concepts to propose alternative directions for U.S. foreign policy. Instead of pushing regime change in North Korea via imposing punitive sanctions and cutting off opportunity to interact with outsiders (actually helps Kim by providing someone to blame for his problems and making isolation easier), we should encourage the Chinese and South Korea to create openings into North Korea. Further, we should also allow North Korea to keep its nuclear weapons while China and South Korea enforce inspections of N.K.'s exports to prevent nuclear smuggling.

A similar less confrontational approach should be/have been taken vs. Iran, Iraq, and Cuba. Additional reasons for doing so in Iran: Russia, China, and possibly some European nations will not allow sanctions against Iran, Iran was supportive of our efforts in Afghanistan, and the biggest threat against Iran's mullahs is its unemployed youth - not the U.S. (A 2002 survey found 94% of Iranians wanting either "change" or "major change.") As for Iraq - we simply should have let the U.N. inspectors continue, and forty years of isolating Cuba has accomplished nothing except to almost bring nuclear havoc during the Kennedy years.

Bremmer makes some good points - clearly we have not succeeded in Iran, Iraq, North Korea, or Cuba, and new thinking is appropriate. (I am, however, leery of simply relying on export inspections to contain N.K.) However, he could have done it in far less than 320 pages - eg. a magazine article.

Reading "The J Curve" also prompts one to think about how long American political stability can withstand the assaults continually perpetrated upon it. Examples include attempts to squash opposition (intellectuals, newspapers and other media), control voting (gerrymandering, large campaign contributions, impairing opponents access to voting), and misrepresenting actions being taken (tax cuts mostly benefiting the middle class; Saddam had WMD). Simultaneously globalization is creating social stresses through increased unemployment, lower wages and living standards, and decimating aspirations. How long before we descend into political instability?