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Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (Wiley Trader's Exchange) Kindle Edition

4.4 out of 5 stars 14 customer reviews

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Length: 176 pages Word Wise: Enabled

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

Provides easily understood, hands-on guidance for futures and options traders who are not computer literate. Using an approach that can be followed by whichever method of technical analysis readers prefer, it quickly and efficiently demonstrates exactly how to set up and adjust a successful trading model for a wide range of trading techniques and products, market considerations and risk profiles.

From the Inside Flap

The Wiley Trader’s Advantage is a new series of concise, highly focused books designed to keep savvy futures, options, stocks, bonds, and commodities traders abreast of the latest, successful strategies and techniques used by the keenest minds in the business. Each title delivers timely, cutting-edge guidance on a key aspect of trading, including trading systems, portfolio management methods, computerized forecasting, and systems optimization. Design, Testing, and Optimization of Trading Systems is designed to help savvy traders to formulate and test trading structures to amplify trading profit and avoid real-time trading issues. This is the first book to offer practical, hands-on guidance for setting up, adjusting, and trading mechanical systems without requiring computer language or programming skills. And its flexible, user-friendly approach can be easily followed regardless of which form of technical analysis you’re currently using — stochastics, moving averages, chart patterns, RSI, breakout methods, and others. Here, finally, is the systematic, empirical guidance you demand to develop and verify each stage of a profitable trading strategy, from formulation through testing to real-time trading. Armed with the author’s battery of easily accomplished testing and optimization techniques — many never before published — you’ll design a workable trading strategy, reliably measure its profit potential and risk, then test it to see if it works in real-time trading. Moreover, you’ll learn how to optimize the strategy over a variety of different markets and time periods, and maintain its peak performance in the face of trends, volatility and liquidity changes, and new trading conditions. To insure testing accuracy, the author identifies the symptoms of overfitting and supplies proven guidelines for avoiding it. Design, Testing, and Optimization of Trading Systems recognizes that different traders have different levels of trading capital, time available, profit requirements, and risk tolerance. Whether you’re seeking to enhance your trading profit or make a start at strategy testing, you’ll find the perfect mix of practical instruction and advice to develop, evaluate, and apply a winning mechanical trading system that suits your exact needs.

Product Details

  • File Size: 3027 KB
  • Print Length: 176 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; 7 edition (November 18, 2009)
  • Publication Date: November 18, 2009
  • Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B00305GUNS
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Word Wise: Enabled
  • Lending: Enabled
  • Enhanced Typesetting: Not Enabled
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,191,559 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

Format: Hardcover
This book contains everything you need to know to understand the theory of computerized trading systems. It goes through the process of choosing a strategy, implementing it in algorithm form, perfecting variables, and optimization. The most important parts, in my opinion, are those regarding tests of statistical significance of the test results. The author is also careful to caution against any "over-optimization," which is the bane of any trading system.
Incedentally, I manage the technical analysis arm of a newsletter that attempts to forecast the best performing Fidelity Select mutual fund. This book was an asset during the implementation of my trading system. I would choose it before "The Mathematics of Technical Analysis," by Clifford Sherry, for example.
The trading system paradigm detailed in this book is based on technical analysis; the use of mathematical tools to estimate the future performance of a security. Technical analysis is, of course, at odds with the strict versions of the efficient market theory. Do you believe that stock performance is deterministic, that future price changes can be inferred from past ones? If so, this is the book to use to implement your computerized trading system.
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Format: Hardcover
A great instructional book on the application of statistical analysis to trading systems. It's excellent for novice trading system developers who don't yet understand the importance of rigorous testing or discretionary traders who aren't yet aware of their need for a carefully and thoroughly tested trading system--a real eye-opener. While the text is somewhat repetitive and the references to software are extremely dated, the techniques within are timeless and are boiled down so that non-mathematicians can easy understand and apply them. This book helps you bypass the slow process of learning system development by trial-and-error and gives you a clear step-by-step breakdown of how to ensure that your trading system is sound and "robust." However, for those of you looking for trading system recipes/indicators/source code, you won't find it here. Coming up with ideas for a trading system and setting them up is entirely up to you--this book only describes the process of forging an existing trading system into a robust system that can be used successfully in real-time trading. A must-read for any serious trading system developer!
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Format: Hardcover
Let me state my biases up front. I've always been rather suspicious of so-called "mechanical" trading strategies, although I'm a strong supporter of a technical approach to the market.

Technical analysis, for me, has always been about individual market participants, as a group, are likely to respond to price action to further their interest for profits, or to conserve capital. Market players are not mindless robots who are as predictable as coin flips, but people pursuing goals, and who learn from history. How the market reacts to news and fundamental info is extremely important from this point of view.

While there are things that can be learned from looking at price action, any algorithm that can extract profits from markets is likely to be short lived. With the advent of cheap, powerful computers, it is all too easy to "test" a system on historical data, only to have it fail in real time. Proper system testing is difficult to do.

Even if testing is done properly, it is likely to have been found by a significant number of smart, well-capitalized people long before you or I ever came onto the scene, making historical test results misleading, possibly unprofitable.

The fact is, markets change, and the context of price action in the past may be totally different to the current market environment. How do market systems account for market change, while still producing valid results?

This book allayed some of my fears. Since system testing IS hard to do, it is unlikely that a significant percentage of people will discover the signals of a profitable system, making the method unprofitable.
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Format: Hardcover
If you are trying to develop a profitable trading system, this is a book you really should read. It is one of the very few good books out there on the subject of developing an automated trading engine that will withstand the test of time and hold up when the bets are placed. It covers all the critical issues involved in successful trading system development: data, backtesting, optimization (and over-optimization), issues of robustness, and more. I would not hesitate to recommend it.

Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D.

Author (with Donna McCormick): "The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies" (McGraw Hill, 2000).
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Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
If you have never read anything about trading systems before, then this might be the right book for you. The few basic concepts are well explained and the text is concise (the book is less than 200 pages). Else save your time and look elsewhere for more sophisticate time series analysis concepts.
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Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
Short but to the point. The classical reference for this subject. If you need more detail in trading systems development, you can read the new revision from Robert Pardo of this book, but I still prefer the original version because the concepts are clear. Also, for more detail you can read Trading Systems from Emilio Tomassini.
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