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Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (Wiley Trader's Exchange) Kindle Edition
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Top Customer Reviews
Incedentally, I manage the technical analysis arm of a newsletter that attempts to forecast the best performing Fidelity Select mutual fund. This book was an asset during the implementation of my trading system. I would choose it before "The Mathematics of Technical Analysis," by Clifford Sherry, for example.
The trading system paradigm detailed in this book is based on technical analysis; the use of mathematical tools to estimate the future performance of a security. Technical analysis is, of course, at odds with the strict versions of the efficient market theory. Do you believe that stock performance is deterministic, that future price changes can be inferred from past ones? If so, this is the book to use to implement your computerized trading system.
Technical analysis, for me, has always been about individual market participants, as a group, are likely to respond to price action to further their interest for profits, or to conserve capital. Market players are not mindless robots who are as predictable as coin flips, but people pursuing goals, and who learn from history. How the market reacts to news and fundamental info is extremely important from this point of view.
While there are things that can be learned from looking at price action, any algorithm that can extract profits from markets is likely to be short lived. With the advent of cheap, powerful computers, it is all too easy to "test" a system on historical data, only to have it fail in real time. Proper system testing is difficult to do.
Even if testing is done properly, it is likely to have been found by a significant number of smart, well-capitalized people long before you or I ever came onto the scene, making historical test results misleading, possibly unprofitable.
The fact is, markets change, and the context of price action in the past may be totally different to the current market environment. How do market systems account for market change, while still producing valid results?
This book allayed some of my fears. Since system testing IS hard to do, it is unlikely that a significant percentage of people will discover the signals of a profitable system, making the method unprofitable.Read more ›
Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D.
Author (with Donna McCormick): "The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies" (McGraw Hill, 2000).
Most Recent Customer Reviews
If you're serious about an objective and thorough approach to evaluate your trading systems, then this book provides some good statistical tests to measure their effectiveness... Read morePublished 22 months ago by KT
I just finished reading this book. I bought Pardo's older book because it was shorter by a couple hundred pages and a bit cheaper. It was very well worth the read. Read morePublished on December 3, 2010 by MinCO
The book is really well written. Not a single line of code, just the concepts and math required to bullet proof your trade system programming.Published on February 17, 2010 by Daniel Coelho
The book is well written and easy to read. I have learned a great deal from it. So far, it is the best book I've read about trading system design and development. Read morePublished on July 12, 2007 by Abderrezak Kargas
Very well written (simple English) that help to organize thoughts of trading. and it help to improve your level of thinking about trading in general. little book, but very useful. Read morePublished on November 7, 2006 by Ctrader
I have never written a comment about a book, but hopefully other people will at least be warned. This is the one of the worst books I've ever read. Read morePublished on April 18, 2005 by P.T.
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