Customer Reviews

Judgment Misguided: Intuition and Error in Public Decision Making

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No book I've read does a better job explaining in a calm and objective fashion, why so many policies of the US government make no sense. This is not a political book. Instead, Baron applies the findings of cognitive psychology to examine irrational attitudes where they do the most harm, in politics.

His main thesis is that a number of rules of thumb, or "moral intuitions" are used by everyone from kids to consultants to make even the most serious decisions. These intuitions include "do no harm," group loyalty, and respect for what is "natural."

Thus, vaccinations against will be dodged because they pose a risk, even when the risk of the disease is greater. A free trade agreement will be opposed if someone loses his job, even when it will lead to the creation of more jobs than before. Overpopulation will not be confronted because of an intuitive "right" to breed. More resources will be spent to get a kitten out of a tree in America than to save starving children in Africa because of the tribal instinct that instills loyalty selectively.

A few small faults are worth mentioning. Some of the biases discussed have slippery definitions: "my-side bias," "wishful thinking," or "naturalism." The style of writing is accesible, but somewhat dull. Order of the topics is somewhat arbitrary.

The author is a leading expert in psychology and decision-making, yet he shows great restraint in making dogmatic or unqualified statements, and allows for all kinds of objections. His critique of human folly follows from the work of Amos Tversky, Paul Slovic, and other researchers into cognitive biases, grounding the book in solid scientific facts.

The final chapter tries to provide a ray of hope. Baron gives the usual suggestions: education, honest reporting, cost-benefit analysis; and a few strange ones: the internet, business ethics, and trust. I did not find this very encouraging. In the Preface, Baron writes "I would like this to be read by everyone concerned with public affairs or the psychology of thinking and decision making. That is, of course, too much to expect." But what would it matter? Nobody is going to change his mind about anything--priority bias, you know?