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Keep from All Thoughtful Men: How U.S. Economists Won World War II [Hardcover]

Jim Lacey
3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)

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Book Description

April 15, 2011
This ground-breaking work overturns accepted historical dogma on how World War II strategy was planned and implemented. Refuting the long-accepted notion that the avalanche of munitions which poured forth from American factories defeated the Axis powers, it examines exactly how this miracle of production was organized and integrated into Allied strategy and operations. In doing so, it is the first book to show how revolutions in statistics and finance forever changed the nature of war, overturning three millennia of the making of grand strategy. Jim Lacey argues that manpower and the capacity to produce more munitions gave out long before the money did.

While the book relates the overall story of how economics dictated war planning at the highest levels, more specifically it tells how three obscure economists came to have more influence on the conduct of the war than the Joint Chiefs. Lacey further contends that the nation s basic strategy, known as the Victory Plan, had nothing to do with Gen. Albert Wedemeyer, despite the general s widely accepted claims that he formulated the plan. The author also is the first to correct to a long-standing fallacy that Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Marshall went to the Casablanca conference determined to push hard for a 1943 invasion of Northern Europe. A check of the conference minutes proved that the Army s official history purposely left out important information or misquoted the principals, according to Lacey, and that the idea of a 1943 invasion had been given up months before. He also makes extensive use of recently uncovered documents and histories written by members of the Joint staff that Lacey discovered misfiled in the National Archives. This first full study of the civil-military fight offers an entirely new perspective of World War II.

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Keep from All Thoughtful Men: How U.S. Economists Won World War II + Bankrupting the Enemy: The U.S. Financial Siege of Japan Before Pearl Harbor
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Editorial Reviews

Review

Much has been written about America s role in the Second World War and about the Second Front which was at the center of the story. Jim Lacey has turned the world upside down. Now for the first time we can see what really happened and why. This is a path-breaking book. --JOHN GOOCH, Emeritus Professor, University of Leeds, coauthor of Military Misfortunes: The Anatomy of Failure in War

Jim Lacey tells how a few obscure American economists guided the miracle of production that crushed the Axis. In 1940-1943 all-outer military chiefs and Roosevelt himself badly misjudged American capacities of labor, materials and finance. Their jumbled arms programs were out of touch with reality. Lacey persuasively describes how the economists, applying then-new statistical measure like gross national product, convinced them to recalibrate output to credible goals that assured a timely victory. --EDWARD S. MILLER, author of Bankrupting the Enemy: The U.S. Financial Siege of Japan Before Pearl Harbor

Quite simply Jim Lacey has overturned nearly 60 years of sloppy work by historians. This book represents a crucial contribution to our understanding of how the United States actually developed the mobilization plan that led to victory in the Second World War. It is undoubtedly one of the most important books to appear on the war in a decade. --WILLIAMSON MURRAY, author of A War To Be Won: Fighting the Second World War

Keep From All Thoughtful Men is a work of scholarship... Nonetheless, I was surprised to discover the book was not a daunting read. Readers interested in America s WWII home-front history may want a copy of Lacey s work for their shelves. Comparing some of its conclusions to much of what has been printed on the subject of America converting itself into the Arsenal of Democracy is useful. And what Keep From All Thoughtful Men adds to what we already know about America s weak military position in the first days of the war makes the story a little more hair-raising. --America in WWII, August 2011

Jim Lacey tells how a few obscure American economists guided the miracle of production that crushed the Axis. In 1940-1943 all-outer military chiefs and Roosevelt himself badly misjudged American capacities of labor, materials and finance. Their jumbled arms programs were out of touch with reality. Lacey persuasively describes how the economists, applying then-new statistical measure like gross national product, convinced them to recalibrate output to credible goals that assured a timely victory. --EDWARD S. MILLER, author of Bankrupting the Enemy: The U.S. Financial Siege of Japan Before Pearl Harbor

Quite simply Jim Lacey has overturned nearly 60 years of sloppy work by historians. This book represents a crucial contribution to our understanding of how the United States actually developed the mobilization plan that led to victory in the Second World War. It is undoubtedly one of the most important books to appear on the war in a decade. --WILLIAMSON MURRAY, author of A War To Be Won: Fighting the Second World War

About the Author

Jim Lacey, a retired U.S. Army Infantry officer with a Ph.D. from the University of Leeds in Great Britain, is a defense analyst and writer based in the Washington, DC area. He is the author of several books on military history, terrorism, and current affairs, including Takedown: The 3rd Infantry Division's Twenty-One Day Assault on Baghdad and a biography of General Pershing, among others.

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 280 pages
  • Publisher: Naval Institute Press; First Edition edition (April 15, 2011)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1591144914
  • ISBN-13: 978-1591144915
  • Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.9 x 9.1 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #498,939 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

3.4 out of 5 stars
(8)
3.4 out of 5 stars
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
20 of 22 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Everything You Know Is Wrong August 30, 2011
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Well, at least most of what I knew about US war planning in 1940-43 turns out to be wrong. The conventional view is that Gen. Alfred Wedemeyer drew up the "Victory Program" that guided US economic and military planning during WWII. This was stated in the US Army Official History and repeated in virtually every book that touched on this subject since then. But apparently no previous historian bothered to check the original documents -- not even Wedemeyer's own files. Lacey did check, and it turns out that 1) Wedemeyer had no detectable influence on that program; 2) His own proposal is absurd, calling for a huge Army that the US economy could not have supported: 3) Wedemeyer inserted himself into history by means of a life-long campaign of lies and forgery.

The real heroes hidden behind Wedemeyer's smokescreen are civilian economists who worked out how much the USA could spend on the war in terms of money and key raw materials; and persuaded FDR and the military to cut back their requirements to fit reality (e.g. redefining half-tracked APCs as "tanks").

The only reason I don't give this book five stars is that it is too short. The discussion of resource limitations is at a very high level (Billions of dollars and thousands of tons of metals). We never get a feel for how these decisions affected actual production numbers of tanks, guns, and ships. For instance, many have argued that the US produced too many defensive weapons (AA guns, ASW ships, AT guns) instead of the offensive arms needed to win (landing craft, field artillery, heavy breakthrough tanks). How did the economists' war in Washington affect these imbalances?

I would also like to have seen a serious discussion of Normandy 1943 vs. Normandy 1944. The author seems to accept the idea that the 1942 cutbacks in the Army Supply Program ruled out the original plan to invade France in April-July 1943. There is a huge literature arguing the opposite. The Allies actually did land 7 divisions in one lift in Sicily in July 1943, despite the production cuts.
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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars A wonderful new perspective May 2, 2012
By GeorgeB
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
While I found the book thoroughly engrossing, I was disappointed that it ended before even Operation Torch in North Africa. It explains how it came to be that the decision to invade Normandy was moved to 1944 and how the first inklings of that date had come to be known to some individuals before even Pearl Harbor was attacked but I was hoping for more. In particular, I was wondering how they coped with the challenges of the Manhattan Project which would have been completely unforeseen at this time and must have thrown a huge monkey wrench into their production planning.

Other things I had wondered were how losses in transatlantic shipping were addressed; how, after victory in Europe, were the logistics swung toward the Pacific theater; what surprised them as war production ramped up in 1943 and 1944? In other words, I suppose I was expecting a more comprehensive treatment of WWII economics and logistics so I give this only 4 stars rather than 5 but I will say that this is a very important read for anyone who would want to see more of "the big picture" behind the planning of WWII.

The one lesson that the book did drive home was that setting production goals too high can actually result in lower production because raw materials diverted to, say, the building of new production facilities which might sit idle for lack of raw materials could have seen the diversion of the raw materials used on that construction to the building of useful war material in the plants that are already built. It is possible to run yourself out of raw materials early by overbuilding production facilities too early. The steel used in building a factory to produce tanks that now sits idle for lack of steel could have been put to use building tanks in plants already operating.

It also shows by clear example how the failure to keep top military planners properly informed of actual production capacity could have resulted in even further delay in the prosecution of the war and how giving responsibility for obtaining information with no authority to actually compel the provision of that information can be a waste of everyone's time.
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Format:Kindle Edition|Amazon Verified Purchase
The book centers essentially on bureaucratic infighting among the responsible (mostly second-echelon) for the economic mobilization of the US during the initial stages of World War II. As such, it is quite interesting and seems to make good use of archival material. The research seems solid, despite its somewhat irritating revisionist "I am the discoverer of the truth" tone. It should be noted, however, that one should have a good background on the American mobilization process in order to be able to place the events described by Lacey in their context. One ends up with the feeling that Lacey is somewhat guilty of overinterpreting the significance of some events.
Lacey essentially argues that a group of economists, using relatively new statistical tools at the time (for instance, GNP calculations), were capable of accurately establishing not only the wartime economic potential of the American economy, but also the optimal rates of production in the economy. In this they faced the armed forces, who initially asked for too little, and later for too much, all the while seeking to assert control over the economy. This led to a showdown in early to mid 1942, as the mounting pressures of economic distortion caused by full mobilization threatened to delay reaching the production targets
In special, Lacey makes a good case -although one does have to take him at his word in a few moments- that Wedemeyer's "Victory Program" had very little, if any, any influence in wartime planning, and that General George C. Marshall already knew, by the time of the Casablanca conferences, that there could be no invasion of mainland Europe in 1943, as the armed forces had not yet reached full strength.
Indicated for anyone interested in wartime economics.
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