The Keys to the White House [Textbook Binding]

Allan J. Lichtman (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: July 5, 2000 | ISBN-10: 073910179X | ISBN-13: 978-0739101797

With The Keys to the White House, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election from 1860 through Clinton's 1992 defeat of Bush and reelection in 1996, Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to know why Al Gore will be the next president should not miss this book.

Editorial Reviews

Review

For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail--a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book. (David Broder )

This is a must book for political junkies who want to answer one important question about any campaign: Who's going to win? (Baltimore Sun )

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House. (Roll Call )

If you're into American presidential politics, The Keys to the White House is a must, and fun, read. (Toronto Sun )

Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable. (Schneider, William )

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman is Professor of History and Chair of the Department of History at American University.

Product Details

• Textbook Binding: 208 pages
• Publisher: Lexington Books (July 5, 2000)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 073910179X
• ISBN-13: 978-0739101797
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 5.9 x 0.6 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.2 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,487,198 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

13 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Entertainingly written, based on solid science, February 1, 2004

By 

Doug Samuelson (Annandale, VA United States) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Keys to the White House (Textbook Binding)

The casual reader might not realize it, but this book is a significant piece of social science. Lichtman and Soviet seismologist (!) Volodia Keilis-Borok threw about 300 variables into a computer and let it find the ones that differentiate between popular-vote winners and losers in every Presidential election from 1860 through 1980. (For those few who would know and care, they used what is known in the English-language literature as kernel discriminant function analysis.) The model produced correct calls in the elections since. This is remarkable. 1988 and 1992 were not easy, as the polls changed dramatically during the campaigns. In 2000, only two sources called Gore's popular-vote win: the last Zogby poll before the election, and the 13 Keys nearly a year in advance! Many political scientists, pundits, and commentators are unhappy with this model, since it implies that much of the ideology, campaign strategy and tactics, image polishing, etc. they care so much about don't really affect the outcome: it's about governance, not campaigning. Ignore their howls of protest. The model works, and Lichtman has explained it well, in easily readable style.

12 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The Keys to the White House--A Surefire Winner, April 5, 2000

By 

Tim Stout (Washington, DC) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President (Hardcover)

Is it possible to have a system of predicting the election of a president, months or even years before Election Day? According to one political historian, yes, there is a way. In fact, it's a "guaranteed" prediction. Historian Allan J. Lichtman has devised a system of thirteen keys that predicts the outcome of elections. The Keys consider such things as the economy, social unrest, scandal, candidate charisma, etc. Since 1981, his forecasting system has never been wrong and, when applied retroactively, they correctly pick every presidential election since the Civil War. Lichtman's book, The Keys to the White House -- 1996 is an important historical/political work. Rather than an over reliance on economic theory, which basically says that if the economy is strong the incumbent wins reelection, Lichtman's keys are historically based, not based solely on the economy or on polls or campaign strategy. The turning of a key is based on historical precedent from past elections. Readers interested in presidential election theory will find Lichtman's book fascinating. According to the book, if the incumbent holds 8 of the 13 keys they will win, regardless of what polls or pundits say. In fact, Lichtman is basically saying that campaigns don't really matter, it's what happens before the campaign that counts. Readers looking for other works related to this topic should read Forecasting Elections by Michael Lewis Beck and Tom Rice or Forecasting Presidential Elections by Steven Rosenstone. The Keys is a must read for anyone interested in political history. Are you trying to predict who will win in 2000? - the Keys will tell you. Only time will tell whether The Keys to the White House is a surefire guide to predicting the next president, but so far, they have a perfect record.

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The System Is Perfect So Far, March 9, 2008

By 

Eric Mayforth (Houston, Texas) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President (Paperback)

I bought a prior edition of this book in 1996 and it completely changed the way I followed presidential politics.

Professor Lichtman has devised a system for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. He posits that there are 13 conditions, which he calls "keys", that have an impact on whether the incumbent party will retain the presidency or whether the challenging party will take over. If eight or more of the keys line up in favor of the incumbent party, the party in power stays in power; if seven or fewer of the keys line up in favor of the incumbents, the White House changes hands.

The keys have accounted accurately for the results of each of the 37 presidential elections held in the United States since 1860.

The fact that the system almost failed several times suggests that someday the keys will not predict an election accurately. James Garfield just barely won in 1880 despite having just four keys turned against him; Richard Nixon just barely lost in 1960 even though he had a staggering nine keys against him; Hubert Humphrey just barely lost in 1968 despite having had eight keys against him; and Gerald Ford just barely lost in 1976 even though eight keys were turned against him.

Even George W. Bush might have won the popular vote in 2000 even though only five keys were against Al Gore, if the networks had not made their bogus Florida projection and had not rushed to call states for Gore on Election Night, while carefully deliberating before awarding Bush his states on Election Night, in order to try to create a bandwagon effect by making it seem as though a Democratic victory was imminent (see Chapter 2 of Bill Sammon's At Any Cost).

However, the fact that the system has gone 37 for 37 so far is reason enough to read this book.

Lichtman closes by offering advice based on the keys. Since elections turn on big issues (war and peace, the economy, etc.) that largely cannot be whitewashed to seem different than they actually are, he suggests that candidates refrain from negative campaigning. He also advises that parties abandon ideological posturing, as when parties move to the center--a stinging rebuke to the Republicans of 2008, who seem to think that the way to win is to move leftward on global warming, immigration, the environment, etc.

Political junkies anywhere on the political spectrum--conservative, moderate, or liberal--will devour this book the way little kids devour chocolate and hard-boiled eggs on Easter morning.