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The Keys to the White House

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The casual reader might not realize it, but this book is a significant piece of social science. Lichtman and Soviet seismologist (!) Volodia Keilis-Borok threw about 300 variables into a computer and let it find the ones that differentiate between popular-vote winners and losers in every Presidential election from 1860 through 1980. (For those few who would know and care, they used what is known in the English-language literature as kernel discriminant function analysis.) The model produced correct calls in the elections since. This is remarkable. 1988 and 1992 were not easy, as the polls changed dramatically during the campaigns. In 2000, only two sources called Gore's popular-vote win: the last Zogby poll before the election, and the 13 Keys nearly a year in advance! Many political scientists, pundits, and commentators are unhappy with this model, since it implies that much of the ideology, campaign strategy and tactics, image polishing, etc. they care so much about don't really affect the outcome: it's about governance, not campaigning. Ignore their howls of protest. The model works, and Lichtman has explained it well, in easily readable style.

Is it possible to have a system of predicting the election of a president, months or even years before Election Day? According to one political historian, yes, there is a way. In fact, it's a "guaranteed" prediction. Historian Allan J. Lichtman has devised a system of thirteen keys that predicts the outcome of elections. The Keys consider such things as the economy, social unrest, scandal, candidate charisma, etc. Since 1981, his forecasting system has never been wrong and, when applied retroactively, they correctly pick every presidential election since the Civil War. Lichtman's book, The Keys to the White House -- 1996 is an important historical/political work. Rather than an over reliance on economic theory, which basically says that if the economy is strong the incumbent wins reelection, Lichtman's keys are historically based, not based solely on the economy or on polls or campaign strategy. The turning of a key is based on historical precedent from past elections. Readers interested in presidential election theory will find Lichtman's book fascinating. According to the book, if the incumbent holds 8 of the 13 keys they will win, regardless of what polls or pundits say. In fact, Lichtman is basically saying that campaigns don't really matter, it's what happens before the campaign that counts. Readers looking for other works related to this topic should read Forecasting Elections by Michael Lewis Beck and Tom Rice or Forecasting Presidential Elections by Steven Rosenstone. The Keys is a must read for anyone interested in political history. Are you trying to predict who will win in 2000? - the Keys will tell you. Only time will tell whether The Keys to the White House is a surefire guide to predicting the next president, but so far, they have a perfect record.

I bought a prior edition of this book in 1996 and it completely changed the way I followed presidential politics.

Professor Lichtman has devised a system for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. He posits that there are 13 conditions, which he calls "keys", that have an impact on whether the incumbent party will retain the presidency or whether the challenging party will take over. If eight or more of the keys line up in favor of the incumbent party, the party in power stays in power; if seven or fewer of the keys line up in favor of the incumbents, the White House changes hands.

The keys have accounted accurately for the results of each of the 37 presidential elections held in the United States since 1860.

The fact that the system almost failed several times suggests that someday the keys will not predict an election accurately. James Garfield just barely won in 1880 despite having just four keys turned against him; Richard Nixon just barely lost in 1960 even though he had a staggering nine keys against him; Hubert Humphrey just barely lost in 1968 despite having had eight keys against him; and Gerald Ford just barely lost in 1976 even though eight keys were turned against him.

Even George W. Bush might have won the popular vote in 2000 even though only five keys were against Al Gore, if the networks had not made their bogus Florida projection and had not rushed to call states for Gore on Election Night, while carefully deliberating before awarding Bush his states on Election Night, in order to try to create a bandwagon effect by making it seem as though a Democratic victory was imminent (see Chapter 2 of Bill Sammon's At Any Cost).

However, the fact that the system has gone 37 for 37 so far is reason enough to read this book.

Lichtman closes by offering advice based on the keys. Since elections turn on big issues (war and peace, the economy, etc.) that largely cannot be whitewashed to seem different than they actually are, he suggests that candidates refrain from negative campaigning. He also advises that parties abandon ideological posturing, as when parties move to the center--a stinging rebuke to the Republicans of 2008, who seem to think that the way to win is to move leftward on global warming, immigration, the environment, etc.

Political junkies anywhere on the political spectrum--conservative, moderate, or liberal--will devour this book the way little kids devour chocolate and hard-boiled eggs on Easter morning.

Lichtman provides, with the Keys to the White House forecasting system, a novel approach to the obscure academic exercise of predicting presidential elections. Ignoring the polls, working sometimes years in advance, it's possible to determine whether the party in the White House will hold or lose it in the coming election. Lichtman achieves this by developing his theory of governance into a set of thirteen "keys" or key factors that will determine the upcoming contest. From the ease of the governing party's primary campaign, to the pulse of the economy, to the foreign policy failures and successes, he applies an historian's eye to current events and lines up the keys. While the system is certainly open to debate, particularly on some of the more subjective keys, the more important point is what it tells us about how and why we choose our presidents. Some of the answers that the keys suggest are surprising. Certainly, the theory of governance diminishes the importance of the media blitz, the opinion poll, and the rough and tumble of everyday politics -- and some political junkies may not like that. But the message of performance is intriguing and should offer new insights to even the most jaded policy wonk.

i first came upon the "keys" on a visit to the my local library in 1991 and was astounded. in 1992 i followed the keys in the book and it perdicted bill clinton's win that year. the first book was called"the 13 keys to the presidency" co-authored by allan litchman and ken decell.the second book on the keys is the above title by allan lichtman. over the course of the past 15 years i have called and emailed ken decell the co-author of the first book on his take on each election from 1992 to 2004. each pre-election perdiction well ahead of time was correct, even 2000 wich gore did win the popular vote. since it only accounts for the popular vote it does not take account of the electoral college votes not matching the popular vote winner wich happened 3 times in history(1876,1888, and 2000). if 5 or fewer keys are false the party that controls the white house that year. if 6 or more is false the out party wins. in 2004 pres. bush had 4 false keys against him, thus he won reelection. 2 more keys false he would have lost. and what is the perdiction for 2008? currently according to allan lichtman and ken decell as of april of 2007 the party in power as of now have 7 false keys against them, one more than necessary to perdict defeat of the republicans hold on the white house. don't take my word for it, go to your local library or book store to read for yourself(the keys to the white house,2005) by allan lichtman or the 13 keys to the presidency by allan lichtman and ken decell,1990). forgive me for some misspellings or some shaky grammar. writing is not my strong suit.

A very good 'guide' to predicting the potential outcome of the 2012 election...The author has been 100% accurate for all pres elections since 1980!!!!

I really enjoy the book. Service was excellent and I recieved the book before the schedule date for it arrival. The book is well worth the price of the book. The book is well written and very informative. This book help me to really understand how elections are decided and who is going to win the election. excellent job Mr. Lichman. I would highly recommand this book Keys to the White House to anyone who really wants to know what elections are about

No matter your political leanings, this is the definitive book on presidential elections. Think they're all about the campaign? Think Nixon lost because he sweated on TV or that Dukakis lost because of the Willie Horton ad? Think again.

Lichtman relies on sound science to show what really matters in presidential elections-that is, how well the incumbent party has done at governing. It is quite refreshing after hearing the talking heads' saying that McCain lost because he picked Palin or because he was too old, when the reality is that any Democrat would have beaten any Republican in 2008.

Having read this book, one should understand that the 13 keys underline the important of the party out of power, in this case the Democrats, getting together in organization and party discipline in order to win more keys and thus the White House the next time around. In addition, while not mentioned, the Bob Shrum curse dominated the result of the 2000 Presidential election so Gore won the popular vote with the help of the keys but lost the electoral college to Bush thanks IN PART to the "Bob Shrum Curse". Look for the article written by the author's wife Karyn Strickler "The Keys to the White House vs. the Shrum Curse: What Really Happened in 2002 & What to Expect in 2004".

Alan Lichtman is a mediocre historian whose well-known left wing views color all his observations. It's as if he cannpt break free of the Marxist training in which he is mired. This taint makes all of his writings suspect. For those wishing to keep the faith in a totally discredited historical system, this book is for them. For those who have any historical sense at all, please avoid this book and all of Lichtman's books at all costs.