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This book will make your head explode--but in a good way. -- John Vorhaus
From the Publisher
1. Putting your opponents on hand distributions
2. Evaluating your own hand
3. Figuring out how your opponents will respond to every possible action you can make
4. Deducing the line of play yielding the highest EV (expectation value) based on #1-#3
Putting your opponents on hands and figuring out how your opponents will respond to your actions are all about reading betting patterns, picking up physical tells, and recognizing psychological cues from your opponents. In other words, poker is all about reacting to your opponents and forcing them to react to you. Properly reacting and inducing reactions is all about data analysis; to be a great poker player, you need to be great at doing data analysis. However, all the data analysis in the world isn't enough if you don't know what to do with it. Once you've acquired your data at the poker table, you need to perform some math to process it and to ultimately come up with the best decisions. For those not familiar with the math, it can appear to be daunting at first, but with a good teacher, those intimidated it should find that it's not nearly as bad as they thought it was. Not only is the math not bad, but it's also necessary if you are going to make the best-possible decisions at the table.
One of the most popular features of televised poker tournaments is the on-screen graphic that shows players' hole cards and the winning percentages of everyone's hands. Viewers love it, and memorizing certain percentages has made them better players, but players want to know how to figure out the percentages themselves-not to mention the other mathematical intricacies that the experts know and the amateurs covet.
Do you have proper odds for your draw? Based on your opponent's calling distribution, should you toss in a value bet on the river? If so, what's the size of the value bet yielding that yields the highest profit in the long run? How profitable is a continuation bet into two opponents given the hands they hold and the hands they are willing to call with on the flop? How should your hand playing requirements change as a function of your stack size? What percentage of the time will opponents fold to an all-in bet in a tournament given that you know their calling distributions? Is it better to use a blocking bet out of position on the river, or is it better to check with the intention of calling?
This is just the beginning of the long list of important questions that the math of poker answers. Killer Poker by the Numbers teaches readers the math required to answer all such questions, and it does so in an accessible, engaging fashion.
In a black-box world obsessed with results, Killer Poker by the Numbers emphasizes process over results. In doing so, Killer Poker by the Numbers arms readers with mathematical weaponry and a methodical paradigm through which to evaluate any poker decision, not just decisions relating to the numerous situations covered in the book. This is what makes it such a powerful addition to the poker literature. And even though it focuses on no-limit hold'em cash games and tournaments (fullhanded and shorthanded), you'll find that the thought process described can be applied to any poker game.
Poker is about having fun and winning money, and the more money you win, the more fun you have. Tony Guerrera has had lots of fun battling in all the venues he's played in, whether it be live $20-$40 hold'em, 6-tabling shorthanded no-limit hold'em cash games online, or 8-tabling single table tournaments online. And Killer Poker by the Numbers will lay the foundation so that you can put yourself in a position to have just as much fun. While many books out there give their readers the basic tools to go into battle, Killer Poker by the Numbers fills a gaping void in the poker book market. It goes into rigorous detail about mathematical concepts that other so-called advanced poker books gloss over, and it gives readers the tools to do the analysis themselves, thus taking their game to the next level. John Vorhaus says it best in the book's foreword: "Armed with Tony's tools is to be armed to the teeth. And that's good times. Very good times indeed." May your EV always be positive!
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Chapter 1: Analytic Tools, for example, begins with the following question: suppose you have A K, raise pre-flop, and have N opponents. (e.g., N = 1, 2, 3, etc.) Supposing these opponents hold two random cards, what is the probability at least one will hit an unpaired flop? Table 1.1 is the first of many great tables in this book, and it tells us that N = 1 means it's 65% likely nobody hits, up through N = 9 => 1% likely nobody hits.
Then Tony asks: Suppose you make a 2/3 pot continuation bet: how many opponents can you have before this bet is no longer profitable, assuming your bet is called/raised if and only if an opponent pairs? Answer: N = 2 is slightly profitable, and N > 2 no longer profitable. This example ends with the author critiquing his own assumptions (e.g., that players will call your pre-flop A K raise with two random cards, play back iff they hit one pair or better, etc.) and cautiouns that all such models should have their assumptions questioned.
As an objective conclusion to this review:
If you play any form of no limit hold `em, then even if you happened to disagree with every single piece of strategy advice Tony gives (making you a tough critic indeed :) ), the probability reference material alone will still make buying this book for $11 a profitable decision.
- Collin
Author of Sit 'n Go Strategy
He explains why at certain times tight play makes mathematical sense and at other times looser and more aggressive play is the way to go. He explains the math behind these decisions in a clear and concise manner.
When reading this book you never get the sense that the math is beyond you, because the author breaks the process of analysis down step by step. This book also goes way beyond the "what are my odds for this draw" type of material common in other books. His examination of No Limit Hold 'em and various playing lines of some key situations shows why math and not just psychology are at the center of successful play.
When you study this book it will give you (as it did me) new insights into poker and a jump on the competition.
Most books give you general rules of thumb. For example, they recommend continuation betting 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot. To follow up they might give an qualitative explanation saying "it give you 2 ways to win..."
However, Tony Guerrera explains poker problems qualitatively and quantitatively. By going thru the problem mathematically, you really go deeper and start to understand what's going on under the hood. He also teaches you a framework to solve poker problems/situations yourself. In fact, at the end of chapters he gives you homework to solve yourself. Highly recommended to players who want to improve and are willing to spend the time to do homework and study (reading the book more than once).
Odd that this book hasn't had many reviewers. I guess it won't win any popularity contests, but the book gave me more poker tools than any TwoPlusTwo book has.
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