The Kondratiev Cycle: A generational interpretation [Paperback]

Michael Alexander (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: March 21, 2002

Michael Alexander extends his analysis of cycles in the stock market to the last seven centuries of Western social, political and economic history. Alexander presents a series of conceptual models for the Kondratiev economic cycle over time and shows how they describe the interaction between economic, social and political cycles. Emphasis is placed on careful empirical demonstration of the reality of these cycles. Alexander then weaves these cycles together showing that they are deeply related to yet another cycle, the generational cycle identified by William Strauss and Neil Howe.This synthesis is used to project political and economic trends over the next twenty years.

Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Michael Alexander Ph.D. is a research engineer at Pharmacia Corporation. He has had a lifelong interest in economic history. He is the author of Stock Cycles (2000). He lives in Kalamazoo Michigan.

Product Details

• Paperback: 314 pages
• Publisher: iUniverse (March 21, 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0595217117
• ISBN-13: 978-0595217113
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6.1 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 15.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #217,903 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

22 of 22 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A valuable contribution to the long-cycle literature, July 8, 2002

By 

chris k papenhausen (Minneapolis, MN United States) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Kondratiev Cycle: A generational interpretation (Paperback)

If successful prediction is a sign of good science, Michael Alexander, who in his previous book "Stock Cycles: Why Stocks Won't Beat Money Markets over the Next Twenty Years" predicted poor stock market returns for twenty years beginning in 2000, has impressive scientific credentials.

In his second book, he synthesizes the theory of stock cycles and innovation waves developed in his first book, with a generational cycle based on the idea of birth cohort peer personalities, a Kondratieff social stress cycle, a world power cycle and a political cycle to describe a single operative cycle that is currently approximately 72 years. The analysis is very quantitative (but fairly easy to follow) and relies quite a bit on statistical significance testing, something that is understandably lacking in most long cycle research (there aren't generally enough cycles to test for statistical significance). Alexander's tying together of several independently constructed cycles to rise to statistical significance is perhaps his most important contribution. But there are several other contributions here including his use of a tool called reduced price that he uses to show that the Kondratieff Cycle that appeared to have ended around mid-century 20th century is actually still operative.

I highly recommend this book for investors, history buffs or anyone who loves a good intellectual puzzle. Some readers may be put off by the more speculative arguments, but the scope of subjects covered here should appeal to almost anyone.

7 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars My highest recommendation, April 23, 2003

By 

James S. Ehmer (Rosemount, MN USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Kondratiev Cycle: A generational interpretation (Paperback)

I give my highest recommendation to this book. I found it to be well-researched, very rigorous, and the conclusions very convincing.

As also stated in his previous book "Stock Cycles...", he said (paraphrase) that the true test of the validity of his conclusions is to observe how events in the future unfold. So far, he is right on!!

Michael, if you're reading this, will you please write another book or offer those of us who admire your work a means to keep up with your current thinking?

Jim

4.0 out of 5 stars A Good Try at an Old Puzzle, January 9, 2011

By 

John V. Higgins "Himself" (Grahamsville, NY) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Kondratiev Cycle: A generational interpretation (Paperback)

Economists and historians have long been fascinated the apparent cycles in the various branches study. The analyses range from the purely literary, such as David Landes' "The " Great Wave', to fairly technical, such as Sumru Altug's recent 'Business Cycles" Alexander advances an interesting hypothesis that generations have uniifying characteristics, The Baby Boomers or the Greatest Generation (at my age, I like that one), usually driven by a reaction to the previous generation. I think he tries to make the relationship too tight; he has neat limited succession of generational types tied to his readings of the course of history. An interesting conribution, but men will continue to puzzle over a cycle tha may not exist.