Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalize existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
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"The different chapters of this book provide a cross section of recent researches and developments in the field of business cycles and forecasting. The book is likely to be of interest for forecasters in government and business as well as for researchers in economics, business management, econometrics and statistics." R.K. Mathur, Journal of Educational Planning and Administration
"...an excellent review of the current state of research into leading indicators. While the evidence presented concerns the US economy (with the exception of a couple of papers on Australia), the message that surveys and patterns in data can help in forecasting, has a much wider application and needs to be taken seriously by economic modellers." Kenneth Holden, International Journal of Forecasting
"...an excellent review of the current state of research into leading indicators. While the evidence presented concerns the US economy (with the exception of a couple of papers on Australia), the message that surveys and patterns in data can help in forecasting, has a much wider application and needs to be taken seriously by economic modellers." Kenneth Holden, International Journal of Forecasting
Book Description
In recent years, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches.
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Inside This Book
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First Sentence:
They system of leading indicators is perhaps the least theoretical of forecasting tools. Read the first page Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
cycle peak date, extra turning points, major forecasting services, industrial materials price index, poor growth years, geometric null, inflation predictor, smoothed growth rate, forecasting cyclical turning points, two false signals, adjusted lead times, coincident index, coincident series, inflation turning points, turning point forecasts, turning point signals, composite leading index, leading indicator approach, economic indicator analysis, coincident variables, inflation troughs, recession quarters, turning point predictions, consecutive quarterly declines, forecasting turning points Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve, New York, Journal of Business, United States, National Bureau of Economic Research, Journal of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Index of Leading Series, Business Conditions Digest, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Columbia University, Handbook of Cyclical Indicators, High Feb, Journal of the American Statistical Association, United Kingdom, Statistical Indicators Division, West Germany, Low Dec, Low Feb, Trough Peak, Blue Chip, Brookings Papers, High Dec, Low Jan New!
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Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
They system of leading indicators is perhaps the least theoretical of forecasting tools. Read the first page Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
cycle peak date, extra turning points, major forecasting services, industrial materials price index, poor growth years, geometric null, inflation predictor, smoothed growth rate, forecasting cyclical turning points, two false signals, adjusted lead times, coincident index, coincident series, inflation turning points, turning point forecasts, turning point signals, composite leading index, leading indicator approach, economic indicator analysis, coincident variables, inflation troughs, recession quarters, turning point predictions, consecutive quarterly declines, forecasting turning points Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve, New York, Journal of Business, United States, National Bureau of Economic Research, Journal of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Index of Leading Series, Business Conditions Digest, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Columbia University, Handbook of Cyclical Indicators, High Feb, Journal of the American Statistical Association, United Kingdom, Statistical Indicators Division, West Germany, Low Dec, Low Feb, Trough Peak, Blue Chip, Brookings Papers, High Dec, Low Jan New!
Books on Related Topics | Concordance | Text Stats Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
Citations (learn more)
This book cites 32
books:
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18
books
cite this book:
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- Business Cycles (Selected Essays in History, Economics, and Social Science 109) by Wesley C. Mitchell on 7 pages
- Measuring Business Cycles by Arthur F. Burns on 4 pages
- Business Cycles by Francis X. Diebold on 4 pages
- Research Paper by R.H. Moore on page 229, page 400, and page 401
- Business Cycle in a Changing World (Business Cycles) by Arthur F. Burns on page 206, and page 208
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- Business Cycles by Francis X. Diebold on 5 pages
- Bayesian Economics Through Numerical Methods: A Guide to Econometrics and Decision-Making with Prior Information by Jeffrey H. Dorfman on page 80, and Back Matter
- Time Series Analysis by James Douglas Hamilton on page 407
- Handbook of Applied Econometrics and Statistical Inference (Statistics: a Series of Textbooks and Monogrphs) by Aman Ullah in Back Matter
- Time Series Models: In econometrics, finance and other fields (Chapman & Hall/CRC Monographs on Statistics & Applied Probability) by D.R. Cox on page 140
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