Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios [Hardcover]

Liam Fahey (Editor), Robert M. Randall (Editor)

Book Description

Publication Date: October 1997

"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager's toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today's leading practitioners in the field." -Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." -David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning-the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." -David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." -Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." -George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

This innovative text offers companies and their decision makers a chance to learn from the future before it happens. This new technique of forecasting future economic, political and other possible developments within an organization, is called scenario planning. Shows how to create, develop, and explore different types of scenarios and how to link them to future decision making.

From the Inside Flap

Being able to anticipate and shape the future is the goal of every leader. "Fortune favors the prepared mind," wisely advised Louis Pasteur more than 100 years ago. So, how well do modern institutions prepare? In recent decades, leaders have often been caught unaware by momentous events-oil shortages and gluts, the collapse of the Soviet empire, and technology that quickly transformed whole industries. The age-old question is, how can organizations learn to anticipate and find opportunity in such sudden crises? The future will always be unpredictable, but with the right techniques it can be imagined and managed. Leading companies and governmental units have learned a way to think smarter about the future. The authors of Learning from the Future reveal how these innovative organizations harness imagination and strategic management techniques to create scenarios that simulate future opportunities and threats. Using these scenarios to test current decisions and get a jump start on building new capabilities for the future is a rich learning experience. This book makes preparing for unpredictable futures a practical part of every manager's job. It shows how scenario learning readies companies for industry and market evolutions and customers' new needs. Scenario learning envisions how industry segments may gain or lose profit potential, how certain technologies could dominate a market or fail to be accepted, how new trends could propel mass markets, what circumstances could derail a merger. This new foresight methodology is a critical source of business advantage. To help readers construct truly useful scenarios and learn from them, this book offers the latest insights of 25 internationally known scenario developers. Their case studies explore rapid technology innovation, regulatory destabilization, actions by new or traditional competitors, and investment opportunities. The authors' previous book, The Portable MBA in Strategy, brought you the brightest and best ideas for winning in the marketplace of today and tomorrow. Now, by combining these proven methods of strategic management with scenario thinking, Liam Fahey and Robert M. Randall take you on a fast forward expedition-Learning from the Future.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 464 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (October 1997)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0471303526
• ISBN-13: 978-0471303527
• Product Dimensions: 6.6 x 1.2 x 9.6 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.8 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #761,498 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

21 of 22 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Conceptual Case Histories of How to Learn from Scenarios May 10, 2000

By Donald Mitchell HALL OF FAMETOP 100 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

If you talk to someone about using scenarios to think about the future, chances are that the other person will nod her/his head in agreement with whatever you have to say. That surface agreement, however, will be misleading because the other person is probably thinking about a totally different kind of scenario thinking than you are.

Learning from the Future helps overcome that misunderstanding by explaining a large number of ways that scenarios can be used. The book contains 25 chapters which each look at a different aspect of scenario development and subsequent thinking.

Three chapters look at what scenario learning is. Seven chapters explore basic approaches to constructing scenarios. Eight chapters describe how to apply scenarios in different contexts, like competitor evaluations, technology investing, making public policy decisions, and considering customers. The final section looks at how to create the right organizational environment for making and using scenarios for learning.

You will benefit from reading the thoughts of many of the world's top experts and users of scenario learning including Peter Schwartz, Kees van der Keijden, Ian Wilson, Liam Fahey and Robert Randall. It is a great line-up, and what they have to say is good food for thought.

If you would like a good introduction to scenario learning, this is an excellent place to start because the perspectives that are captured are unusually broad and appropriate.

This book belongs in the business library of every business decision-maker. When an important question arises, you can use this book as a resource to think through how you might best use scenarios to create a better result. Enjoy!

12 of 13 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Forewarned is forearmed June 7, 1999

By eclectic reader

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

Many, if not most, corporations try to utilize scenario planning in their strategy process. All too frequently, these efforts become routine: what if we increase (decrease) marketing budgets by 10%? What if raw material prices go up (down)? It's all pretty warm beer given the pace of business change every company faces.

This book shows how to do it right. The editors have shaped the contributions of 24 experts iinto a thorough, rigorous book covering all the vital aspects of scenarios. The reader will find clear discussions of what scenarios should be and how organizations can use them to "learn from the future." There are chapters on tools and techniques (like simulation models), advice on implementation, and case studies from both the private and public sector. The last chapter, "Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning" is especially valuable.

Forewarned is forearmed. Any manager who does not want to go into the future blind and defenseless must read this book.

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars A Mind Opening Work that has Changed My Approach to Strategy July 29, 1998

By A Customer

Format:Hardcover

Learning from the Future has completely changed my approach to conducting strategy and planning in my company. It has opened up endless possibilities for improving the quality of our strategy and planning processes and has given us some very powerful methods (and thinking tools) to create effective strategies and strategy management methodologies. I highly recommend this work to anyone who really wants to strengthen their ability to develop robust, well thought-out strategies for growing their business. The integration of scenarios with strategy is an unbeatable combination. I know of no other technology like it. A must for consultants.

Mike Martinez; Strategy and Planning Mgr.; Hewlett Packard Co.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Puts forth a powerful way for peering into the future. March 21, 1999

By A Customer

Format:Hardcover

This impressive work shows how to harness imagination and strategic management techniques to create scenarios that simulate future opportunities and threats. Shows how to use scenario building, drawing on case studies and insights of 26 expert scenario developers. Presents a new system of scenario learning, bringing together strategic management, scenario technology, teamwork, creativity, and decision-making skills. This is a meaty and informative book.

7 of 8 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars one of the very best works on scenario learning August 26, 2001

By Max More

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

This book, written in 1997, is one of the very best works on scenario planning-or scenario learning, as the editors prefer. The 446-page book is a collection of 25 chapters by a variety of authors, each adding a perspective to the scenario learning process. Fahey and Randall explain how scenario learning builds on traditional scenario planning, then follow up with a chapter on integrating scenarios with strategy. Several essays explain basic approaches to constructing scenarios. The next section shows how to apply scenario learning in diverse contexts including industry scenarios, competitive positioning, technology investments, and anticipating new consumer products. The last section details the vital step of managing the organizational context for scenario learning. Included in this section is a contribution by Kees van der Heijden on the business idea, and Paul Schoemaker on common pitfalls in scenario planning. This book is an excellent resource on the practical use of scenarios in business strategy. It mostly avoids overcomplicating the process as some other books have done, and it focuses on practical strategic implementation, not scenarios for their own sake. At a time when the New Economy continually throws up surprises, looking ahead with scenario learning is more timely than ever.