The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down (Little Books. Big Profits) [Hardcover]

Peter D. Schiff (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: October 6, 2008 | Series: Little Books. Big Profits (Book 20)

Written by seasoned Wall Street prognosticator Peter Schiff–author of the bestselling book Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse–The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets reveals how you should protect your assets and invest your money when the American economy is experiencing perilous economic downturns and wealth building is happening elsewhere. Filled with insightful commentary, inventive metaphors, and prescriptive advice, this book shows you how to make money under adverse market conditions by using a conservative, nontraditional investment strategy.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Certainly a savvy buy in the current climate...timely advice on how to survive the bear's bite." (CEO Middle East, November 2008) ‘It is all written in Schiff's usual brisk style… he has dived into the practicalities of portfolio construction.' (FT.com, October 2010).

From the Inside Flap

"Peter Schiff is one of the few financial analysts who understands the Federal Reserve's responsibility for the boom-and-bust cycle plaguing the American economy. Anyone wishing to know why the American economy is in trouble should add this book to their reading list."
—Ron Paul, United States Congressman

"Schiff was warning us about our fragile economic foundation long before the first cracks started to appear. There are plenty of market cheerleaders out there, but if you want advice from a market realist who has been proven right again and again, read this book."
—Glenn Beck, host, The Glenn Beck Program

"Peter Schiff understands the big financial picture better than most Wall Street professionals. Investors—with or without experience—will benefit from his insights, making this book a must-read."
—Jim Rogers, international investor and author of A Gift to My Children

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 304 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (October 6, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 047038378X
• ISBN-13: 978-0470383780
• Product Dimensions: 5.3 x 1.1 x 7.6 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (75 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #325,911 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Peter D. Schiff is a seasoned Wall Street prognosticator best known for his accurate predictions of the performance of the stock market, commodities, gold, and the dollar. He is one of the few unbiased investment advisors to have predicted the current bear market and positioned his clients accordingly. Schiff began his career at Shearson Lehman and joined Euro Pacific Capital in 1996, becoming President of the firm in 2000. He appears frequently on Fox Business News, CNN, CNBC, and Bloomberg TV, and has been quoted in such publications as the Wall Street Journal, Barron's, the Financial Times, and the New York Times. Schiff is also the author of the original edition of Crash Proof as well as The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets, both published by Wiley.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

93 of 98 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars When the government takes the capital out of Capitalism, the only signal left is static. October 22, 2008

By Freeway University Student

Format:Hardcover

Mr. Schiff's new book is a follow up to Crash Proof. I bought six copies of that book, because it was my introduction to real economics and I wanted to share it. Both his books are important because they accurately describe economic function in the context of what is happening now in our markets. He understands what is transpiring and warns people in advance. Protecting yourself from the economic forces now playing out is the focus of his work, not the full blown explanation of economics in general. For that, I recommend Economics in One Lesson, so that you may be fully educated on the subject. Read it as many times as you need to.

The foreword to Bull Moves is by Marc Faber, who endorses the common sense approach for the long term. The book's introduction warns of the inevitable downturn of an economy that was only possible through speculation borne of low interest rates. There is now no doubt that we are in that recession. The first chapters talk about the loss of America's purchasing power. The 1950's were a healthy economic time, because we produced goods that went around the world. High rates of production coupled with Reserve Currency Status gave the dollar an unbeatable edge back then. He then tracks reasons for the dollars' demise over time. He clarifies what inflation truly is. Unfortunately, most people don't understand it and how deadly it is. I don't like the way he explains Bretton Woods, and this is the second time he's done it in this manner. Bretton Woods was a poor excuse for a metallic standard and doomed to fail. Therefore it is my opinion that it was a dysfunctional group effort with multiple culprit nations. "My country's name is France and I'm a central banker." "Hi France."

Mr. Schiff's theory of decoupling hasn't yet come true.... It probably will, but I have to wonder after the recent worldwide interest rate reduction, if every central banker will see their citizens lose it all in their efforts to stick to the modern planned economy mantra. Additionally, the one prediction from his last book that is still unfulfilled is about the bond market. US Government bonds comprise the last bubble yet to feel the smack down from Adam Smith's invisible pimp hand.

Chapter three steers you through the confusion of government statistics. After reading about it, you'll finally realize what the government isn't telling you with their numbers. Chapter four explains historic market cycles and tells you how to restructure your investments. Chapter five is about investing in commodities. Let's take a breather shall we... Chapter six is specifically about gold and silver. He tells you about the different ways to invest and what to avoid. Seven gets you acquainted with investing in foreign countries and companies. Eight is about stable foreign economies that are his favorite to invest in. Nine is about how and where to invest in emerging markets. Currently, there are big problems in the foreign markets, but again, this book is for the long run. So keep that in mind.

Chapter ten is about employment. He talks about industries that will suffer, as well as the jobs that offer the most opportunity. Eleven is about what your declining standard of living will be like and ways to adjust. Twelve is about immigrating to a different country. To this one, I have to say "No Thanks." There are many problems in the rest of the world, not to mention, they're probably gonna hate Americans a lot at that point.

The last chapter is about bringing your money back to the USA. Peter says to wait until at least 2012 to see if the economy is functioning properly. I'm sure if you listen to his radio show, you'll be able to tell if we're there.

Throughout, Peter explains how interference into the markets has brought about so many of the problems that we now must face. He's one of the few who realize that government intervention is really the helping hand of a leper. Bull Moves is an informative and timely book. Read more ›

109 of 116 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars They laughed at him with his negative outlook several years ago. October 9, 2008

By Peter L. Coplin

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

Gold, commodities, foreign companies with little exposure to the USA. That is the gist of Peter Schiff's investing recommendations. Why? He's not unpatriotic, but rational in his thinking that the US has lost its way through outsourcing production of goods, and overwhelmingly becoming a country of service oriented personnel. We make nothing, we buy most, and are up to our ears in debt, which will take its toll now and in the future on the dollar. There are several well known "Doctor Dooms" around. Rubini, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, and Peter Schiff. I never thought that I would ever be a bear on the US stock market, until I started reading not only Peter Schiffs books and the others, but books on derivatives and other financial inventions, that could bring markets down entirely, and for a while. Impossible you say? If you think so, you need to read this. The Dow was down again today nearly 700 points. Maria Bartiromo is starting to call this a market crash. I stayed up the whole night reading this book. The writing flows and points are great, except when he recommends that you buy a gun, and learn how to use it- maybe he's correct there too. He's half tongue-in-cheek. He makes one recommendation that he says will make the dot.com bubble look like "warming up", during the next decade. Curious? Ans: gold producer stocks. Great book.

62 of 66 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars just in time (well, maybe a little too early) October 11, 2008

By Amazon fan

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

This book must be flying off the shelves at Amazon's warehouses, and for good reason. It is a welcome diversion to the anger-fear-nausea that has churned within me over the past few weeks and months. This hot-off-the-presses book can guide me in constructive thought and planning.

Will we have deflation or inflation? Schiff believes it will be deflation for big-ticket items typically purchased with debt (dwellings, education); for everything else there will be inflation. The reader should study this book, analyze his reasoning behind his recommendations, and evaluate how (or whether) to apply his strategy. As for me, his words sound spot-on, but I wonder if global markets are sufficiently decoupled for his advice (get out of $US) to be effective right now. On page 136 he states that decoupling is inevitable, but how long will it take to happen? No one really knows the answer to that.

This is written for people at various stages of life: students contemplating education and career choices, mid-career people looking for shelter from the storm, and retirees who want to maintain the best possible lifestyle and health care on fixed funds.

He lists pros and cons of various investment vehicles that can take you to other global markets (ETF, ETN, Mutual Funds, ADR, etc.), and how you may preserve the value of your domestic funds with precious metals and a very select few US investments. You won't find hot stock tips here. Instead Schiff shows you how to approach finding the best regional economies / countries / companies in which to invest, and provides some general directions to start your search.

Lastly, this is not an entirely pessimistic book. (Thank you Mr. Schiff!...) I'm not ready to head for a bunker in Mexico with canned food and toilet paper - but he does recommend you stockpile foodstuffs and other essentials at home because inflation will erode your purchasing power. He has (cautious) hope for America, but acknowledges the next decade could get grim. You must be particularly wise now to avoid getting hit by the Destitution Bus. This book, along with much research, reflection, and planning can show you how.

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POSTSCRIPT February 2009. Clearly his timing was off. Way off. But I'm keeping this book on my shelf, distilling some of Schiff's ideas, and monitoring general economic signals. Consensus among many is that inflation is surely on the way with all these bailouts. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon. That means you've got time to educate yourself, adopt and discard ideas based on their merit and applicability to your situation, and make plans for the various likely scenarios you foresee. You don't have to rush out pell mell today and throw all of your money at the first gold dealer you encounter. Take your time. Think it through. Make multi-facted plans and don't forget to formulate your exit strategy in case those plans turn out to be wrong. (Per Mish Shedlock, the lack of an exit strategy was one of Schiff's mistakes.)

I agree with the "flawed but worthy" and "helped me to sharpen my thoughts" type of reviews that awarded 2 or 3 stars. But Bull Moves presents a particular way of thinking and it should serve as a valuable wake-up call for folks who are beginning to suspect that we're going down a bad road. (Anyone in this category, please check out The Revolution: A Manifesto).

Like I said before, it's up to the reader to reason through the information presented and decide whether to act on Schiff's advice. No person on this planet can provide you with a foolproof, chiseled-in-stone, step-by-step blueprint for how to proced. Caveat emptor. Read more ›

332 of 390 people found the following review helpful

2.0 out of 5 stars Not exactly timely, and not exactly right October 22, 2008

By John A. League VINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover

I was intrigued by Mr. Schiff's little book purports to pull back the curtain on the invisible erosion of the value of your money, your investments, the U.S. economy and our financial system in general. Let me say first and foremost that Mr. Schiff has a lot of smart things to say. Yes, the Federal Reserve is culpable and careless about its monetarist policy of inflationary increases to the money supply, especially as it helps put more air into asset bubbles (think the housing market). Yes, Americans borrow too much money for consumption that they don't really need. Yes, fiat currency is beholden to the whim of the market.

Schiff also makes some good and useful points that do not often appear in books about investing. First, he tells you how to actually invest in the things he recommends. Granted, he is often hawking his own wares (his company does many of the things he says investors must have, like stocks bought on foreign exchanges and custodial services for precious metals), but he also presents some things I'd never heard of (like GoldMoney.com) that could have some utility, even if you don't buy his argument whole. Second, he gives some guidance for potential career and business choices that stand to benefit from the disasters he sees befalling the U.S. economy. Though I disagree with him on numerous points, I think his efforts here are an important part of any plan that relates to investing--that is, how you get the money you plan to invest--but are generally ignored in most books on the subject.

However, I have some serious problems with this book. Six of them. First, it looks like it was rushed to press to capitalize on the recent market turmoil.... I don't think they pushed it to market in the wake of the disastrous first few weeks in October, but when everything was going to hell back in July it looked like Schiff's predictions (ever-higher commodity prices and perpetual dollar weakness) were prescient. There are numerous typographical errors, and the title doesn't really seem to fit with Schiff's premise. These aren't bear-market strategies: this what Schiff thinks everyone should have been doing back when things were swell, and he even says that he said this very thing in a previous book. So while this book has a timely title, I don't think it is as useful as it wants to be.

Second, since July, commodities have been largely in freefall and the U.S. dollar has been the strongest performing developed-market currency, undermining most of Schiff's major points. Now he would say--as I do when my own strategies meet an extended bout of resistance--that this is merely a cyclical change and does not run counter to the secular pattern of surging prices of hard assets and the concomitant decline of the greenback. Still, it is hard to find his claims credible when he trumpets the early-July status as proof that his strategies work--including investing in developed foreign stock markets, whose performance has been in many cases worse than that of the U.S. and has been further savaged by weakness relative to the dollar.

Third, he underestimates or misrepresents exchange-traded funds (ETFs). At one point, Schiff lumps in ETFs with actively managed mutual funds as a bad idea because their sole purpose is to beat the market. Not so, and he even says so later on. Why the inconsistency? At another, he describes how he talked a prospective client out of investing in ETFs (admittedly in favor of paying Schiff to build and manage a custom portfolio) because he couldn't find any to invest in that didn't have large allocations to financial-services companies. True, financial serivces are often large chunks of broad-market ETFs for any country, but writing the entire product line off for that alone is short-sighted at best and self-serving at worst.

Fourth, he really skimps on his foreign-market preferences. Yes, he gives a long list that includes Australia, Singapore, Norway and Switzerland, but the information he offers to buttress his preference is apparently gleaned from the CIA Factbook, which anyone can access for free on the Internet. Why do I need him to regurgitate that? If I'm going to pay for his book, he needs to give me something more than information I can acquire at less cost elsewhere.

Fifth, Schiff says the only way back for the U.S. economy is to return to a production-based economy, one where the U.S. produces goods, not services. (At the same time, he says that the entertainment industry in the U.S. is evergreen.) I think he has something there, but it won't be that we'll start again making cotton underwear and tires. We might eventually, but only once the supply of places where workers will supply labor for less money is exhausted, and we've still got big sections of Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe and all of Africa to go through before we get there. We're going to have fulfill the single greatest requirement of any business in a free market: make what people want. Obama thinks that's energy technology. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. The point is that innovation and education are key, not an overpriced industrial base.

Sixth and finally, Schiff's notion of decoupling is debunked by this year's events. His analogy is that the U.S. thinks it is the engine of economic growth in the world, when really it's the caboose. If the rest of the world lets the caboose go, the rest of the train will be able to move faster. True, China and India will have their hands full of production and demand just supplying goods and services for their own populations. But for better or worse, the financial and economic fortunes of the developed and emerging worlds are married, perhaps not happily but married all the same.

In all, I am glad Schiff wrote this book, as it has allowed me to firm up my own ideas about markets and economies. I disagree, but I understand Schiff's strategies as a reaction to real problems. And in his defense, I don't think that investors would necessarily be all that bad off doing what he says. Inflation is a mostly invisible monster, but one that can be tamed. Paul Volcker did it (and Schiff credits him for it), and even feckless Ben Bernanke seems to have some newfound interest in pricking asset bubbles with interest rates and open-market actions. We'll see, but for now I'm sticking with my cheap U.S. stocks and my Treasury inflation-protected securities. Read more ›