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93 of 98 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
When the government takes the capital out of Capitalism, the only signal left is static., October 22, 2008
Mr. Schiff's new book is a follow up to Crash Proof. I bought six copies of that book, because it was my introduction to real economics and I wanted to share it. Both his books are important because they accurately describe economic function in the context of what is happening now in our markets. He understands what is transpiring and warns people in advance. Protecting yourself from the economic forces now playing out is the focus of his work, not the full blown explanation of economics in general. For that, I recommend Economics in One Lesson, so that you may be fully educated on the subject. Read it as many times as you need to.
The foreword to Bull Moves is by Marc Faber, who endorses the common sense approach for the long term. The book's introduction warns of the inevitable downturn of an economy that was only possible through speculation borne of low interest rates. There is now no doubt that we are in that recession. The first chapters talk about the loss of America's purchasing power. The 1950's were a healthy economic time, because we produced goods that went around the world. High rates of production coupled with Reserve Currency Status gave the dollar an unbeatable edge back then. He then tracks reasons for the dollars' demise over time. He clarifies what inflation truly is. Unfortunately, most people don't understand it and how deadly it is. I don't like the way he explains Bretton Woods, and this is the second time he's done it in this manner. Bretton Woods was a poor excuse for a metallic standard and doomed to fail. Therefore it is my opinion that it was a dysfunctional group effort with multiple culprit nations. "My country's name is France and I'm a central banker." "Hi France."
Mr. Schiff's theory of decoupling hasn't yet come true. It probably will, but I have to wonder after the recent worldwide interest rate reduction, if every central banker will see their citizens lose it all in their efforts to stick to the modern planned economy mantra. Additionally, the one prediction from his last book that is still unfulfilled is about the bond market. US Government bonds comprise the last bubble yet to feel the smack down from Adam Smith's invisible pimp hand.
Chapter three steers you through the confusion of government statistics. After reading about it, you'll finally realize what the government isn't telling you with their numbers. Chapter four explains historic market cycles and tells you how to restructure your investments. Chapter five is about investing in commodities. Let's take a breather shall we... Chapter six is specifically about gold and silver. He tells you about the different ways to invest and what to avoid. Seven gets you acquainted with investing in foreign countries and companies. Eight is about stable foreign economies that are his favorite to invest in. Nine is about how and where to invest in emerging markets. Currently, there are big problems in the foreign markets, but again, this book is for the long run. So keep that in mind.
Chapter ten is about employment. He talks about industries that will suffer, as well as the jobs that offer the most opportunity. Eleven is about what your declining standard of living will be like and ways to adjust. Twelve is about immigrating to a different country. To this one, I have to say "No Thanks." There are many problems in the rest of the world, not to mention, they're probably gonna hate Americans a lot at that point.
The last chapter is about bringing your money back to the USA. Peter says to wait until at least 2012 to see if the economy is functioning properly. I'm sure if you listen to his radio show, you'll be able to tell if we're there.
Throughout, Peter explains how interference into the markets has brought about so many of the problems that we now must face. He's one of the few who realize that government intervention is really the helping hand of a leper. Bull Moves is an informative and timely book.
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108 of 116 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
They laughed at him with his negative outlook several years ago., October 9, 2008
Gold, commodities, foreign companies with little exposure to the USA. That is the gist of Peter Schiff's investing recommendations. Why? He's not unpatriotic, but rational in his thinking that the US has lost its way through outsourcing production of goods, and overwhelmingly becoming a country of service oriented personnel. We make nothing, we buy most, and are up to our ears in debt, which will take its toll now and in the future on the dollar. There are several well known "Doctor Dooms" around. Rubini, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, and Peter Schiff. I never thought that I would ever be a bear on the US stock market, until I started reading not only Peter Schiffs books and the others, but books on derivatives and other financial inventions, that could bring markets down entirely, and for a while. Impossible you say? If you think so, you need to read this. The Dow was down again today nearly 700 points. Maria Bartiromo is starting to call this a market crash. I stayed up the whole night reading this book. The writing flows and points are great, except when he recommends that you buy a gun, and learn how to use it- maybe he's correct there too. He's half tongue-in-cheek. He makes one recommendation that he says will make the dot.com bubble look like "warming up", during the next decade. Curious? Ans: gold producer stocks. Great book.
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61 of 66 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
just in time (well, maybe a little too early), October 11, 2008
This book must be flying off the shelves at Amazon's warehouses, and for good reason. It is a welcome diversion to the anger-fear-nausea that has churned within me over the past few weeks and months. This hot-off-the-presses book can guide me in constructive thought and planning.
Will we have deflation or inflation? Schiff believes it will be deflation for big-ticket items typically purchased with debt (dwellings, education); for everything else there will be inflation. The reader should study this book, analyze his reasoning behind his recommendations, and evaluate how (or whether) to apply his strategy. As for me, his words sound spot-on, but I wonder if global markets are sufficiently decoupled for his advice (get out of $US) to be effective right now. On page 136 he states that decoupling is inevitable, but how long will it take to happen? No one really knows the answer to that.
This is written for people at various stages of life: students contemplating education and career choices, mid-career people looking for shelter from the storm, and retirees who want to maintain the best possible lifestyle and health care on fixed funds.
He lists pros and cons of various investment vehicles that can take you to other global markets (ETF, ETN, Mutual Funds, ADR, etc.), and how you may preserve the value of your domestic funds with precious metals and a very select few US investments. You won't find hot stock tips here. Instead Schiff shows you how to approach finding the best regional economies / countries / companies in which to invest, and provides some general directions to start your search.
Lastly, this is not an entirely pessimistic book. (Thank you Mr. Schiff!) I'm not ready to head for a bunker in Mexico with canned food and toilet paper - but he does recommend you stockpile foodstuffs and other essentials at home because inflation will erode your purchasing power. He has (cautious) hope for America, but acknowledges the next decade could get grim. You must be particularly wise now to avoid getting hit by the Destitution Bus. This book, along with much research, reflection, and planning can show you how.
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POSTSCRIPT February 2009. Clearly his timing was off. Way off. But I'm keeping this book on my shelf, distilling some of Schiff's ideas, and monitoring general economic signals. Consensus among many is that inflation is surely on the way with all these bailouts. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon. That means you've got time to educate yourself, adopt and discard ideas based on their merit and applicability to your situation, and make plans for the various likely scenarios you foresee. You don't have to rush out pell mell today and throw all of your money at the first gold dealer you encounter. Take your time. Think it through. Make multi-facted plans and don't forget to formulate your exit strategy in case those plans turn out to be wrong. (Per Mish Shedlock, the lack of an exit strategy was one of Schiff's mistakes.)
I agree with the "flawed but worthy" and "helped me to sharpen my thoughts" type of reviews that awarded 2 or 3 stars. But Bull Moves presents a particular way of thinking and it should serve as a valuable wake-up call for folks who are beginning to suspect that we're going down a bad road. (Anyone in this category, please check out The Revolution: A Manifesto).
Like I said before, it's up to the reader to reason through the information presented and decide whether to act on Schiff's advice. No person on this planet can provide you with a foolproof, chiseled-in-stone, step-by-step blueprint for how to proced. Caveat emptor.
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