Customer Reviews

The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down (Little Books. Big Profits)

5 star:		(36)
4 star:		(17)
3 star:		(2)
2 star:		(11)
1 star:		(9)

 

 

Mr. Schiff's new book is a follow up to Crash Proof. I bought six copies of that book, because it was my introduction to real economics and I wanted to share it. Both his books are important because they accurately describe economic function in the context of what is happening now in our markets. He understands what is transpiring and warns people in advance. Protecting yourself from the economic forces now playing out is the focus of his work, not the full blown explanation of economics in general. For that, I recommend Economics in One Lesson, so that you may be fully educated on the subject. Read it as many times as you need to.

The foreword to Bull Moves is by Marc Faber, who endorses the common sense approach for the long term. The book's introduction warns of the inevitable downturn of an economy that was only possible through speculation borne of low interest rates. There is now no doubt that we are in that recession. The first chapters talk about the loss of America's purchasing power. The 1950's were a healthy economic time, because we produced goods that went around the world. High rates of production coupled with Reserve Currency Status gave the dollar an unbeatable edge back then. He then tracks reasons for the dollars' demise over time. He clarifies what inflation truly is. Unfortunately, most people don't understand it and how deadly it is. I don't like the way he explains Bretton Woods, and this is the second time he's done it in this manner. Bretton Woods was a poor excuse for a metallic standard and doomed to fail. Therefore it is my opinion that it was a dysfunctional group effort with multiple culprit nations. "My country's name is France and I'm a central banker." "Hi France."

Mr. Schiff's theory of decoupling hasn't yet come true. It probably will, but I have to wonder after the recent worldwide interest rate reduction, if every central banker will see their citizens lose it all in their efforts to stick to the modern planned economy mantra. Additionally, the one prediction from his last book that is still unfulfilled is about the bond market. US Government bonds comprise the last bubble yet to feel the smack down from Adam Smith's invisible pimp hand.

Chapter three steers you through the confusion of government statistics. After reading about it, you'll finally realize what the government isn't telling you with their numbers. Chapter four explains historic market cycles and tells you how to restructure your investments. Chapter five is about investing in commodities. Let's take a breather shall we... Chapter six is specifically about gold and silver. He tells you about the different ways to invest and what to avoid. Seven gets you acquainted with investing in foreign countries and companies. Eight is about stable foreign economies that are his favorite to invest in. Nine is about how and where to invest in emerging markets. Currently, there are big problems in the foreign markets, but again, this book is for the long run. So keep that in mind.

Chapter ten is about employment. He talks about industries that will suffer, as well as the jobs that offer the most opportunity. Eleven is about what your declining standard of living will be like and ways to adjust. Twelve is about immigrating to a different country. To this one, I have to say "No Thanks." There are many problems in the rest of the world, not to mention, they're probably gonna hate Americans a lot at that point.

The last chapter is about bringing your money back to the USA. Peter says to wait until at least 2012 to see if the economy is functioning properly. I'm sure if you listen to his radio show, you'll be able to tell if we're there.

Throughout, Peter explains how interference into the markets has brought about so many of the problems that we now must face. He's one of the few who realize that government intervention is really the helping hand of a leper. Bull Moves is an informative and timely book.

Gold, commodities, foreign companies with little exposure to the USA. That is the gist of Peter Schiff's investing recommendations. Why? He's not unpatriotic, but rational in his thinking that the US has lost its way through outsourcing production of goods, and overwhelmingly becoming a country of service oriented personnel. We make nothing, we buy most, and are up to our ears in debt, which will take its toll now and in the future on the dollar. There are several well known "Doctor Dooms" around. Rubini, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, and Peter Schiff. I never thought that I would ever be a bear on the US stock market, until I started reading not only Peter Schiffs books and the others, but books on derivatives and other financial inventions, that could bring markets down entirely, and for a while. Impossible you say? If you think so, you need to read this. The Dow was down again today nearly 700 points. Maria Bartiromo is starting to call this a market crash. I stayed up the whole night reading this book. The writing flows and points are great, except when he recommends that you buy a gun, and learn how to use it- maybe he's correct there too. He's half tongue-in-cheek. He makes one recommendation that he says will make the dot.com bubble look like "warming up", during the next decade. Curious? Ans: gold producer stocks. Great book.

This book must be flying off the shelves at Amazon's warehouses, and for good reason. It is a welcome diversion to the anger-fear-nausea that has churned within me over the past few weeks and months. This hot-off-the-presses book can guide me in constructive thought and planning.

Will we have deflation or inflation? Schiff believes it will be deflation for big-ticket items typically purchased with debt (dwellings, education); for everything else there will be inflation. The reader should study this book, analyze his reasoning behind his recommendations, and evaluate how (or whether) to apply his strategy. As for me, his words sound spot-on, but I wonder if global markets are sufficiently decoupled for his advice (get out of $US) to be effective right now. On page 136 he states that decoupling is inevitable, but how long will it take to happen? No one really knows the answer to that.

This is written for people at various stages of life: students contemplating education and career choices, mid-career people looking for shelter from the storm, and retirees who want to maintain the best possible lifestyle and health care on fixed funds.

He lists pros and cons of various investment vehicles that can take you to other global markets (ETF, ETN, Mutual Funds, ADR, etc.), and how you may preserve the value of your domestic funds with precious metals and a very select few US investments. You won't find hot stock tips here. Instead Schiff shows you how to approach finding the best regional economies / countries / companies in which to invest, and provides some general directions to start your search.

Lastly, this is not an entirely pessimistic book. (Thank you Mr. Schiff!) I'm not ready to head for a bunker in Mexico with canned food and toilet paper - but he does recommend you stockpile foodstuffs and other essentials at home because inflation will erode your purchasing power. He has (cautious) hope for America, but acknowledges the next decade could get grim. You must be particularly wise now to avoid getting hit by the Destitution Bus. This book, along with much research, reflection, and planning can show you how.

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POSTSCRIPT February 2009. Clearly his timing was off. Way off. But I'm keeping this book on my shelf, distilling some of Schiff's ideas, and monitoring general economic signals. Consensus among many is that inflation is surely on the way with all these bailouts. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon. That means you've got time to educate yourself, adopt and discard ideas based on their merit and applicability to your situation, and make plans for the various likely scenarios you foresee. You don't have to rush out pell mell today and throw all of your money at the first gold dealer you encounter. Take your time. Think it through. Make multi-facted plans and don't forget to formulate your exit strategy in case those plans turn out to be wrong. (Per Mish Shedlock, the lack of an exit strategy was one of Schiff's mistakes.)

I agree with the "flawed but worthy" and "helped me to sharpen my thoughts" type of reviews that awarded 2 or 3 stars. But Bull Moves presents a particular way of thinking and it should serve as a valuable wake-up call for folks who are beginning to suspect that we're going down a bad road. (Anyone in this category, please check out The Revolution: A Manifesto).

Like I said before, it's up to the reader to reason through the information presented and decide whether to act on Schiff's advice. No person on this planet can provide you with a foolproof, chiseled-in-stone, step-by-step blueprint for how to proced. Caveat emptor.

I was intrigued by Mr. Schiff's little book purports to pull back the curtain on the invisible erosion of the value of your money, your investments, the U.S. economy and our financial system in general. Let me say first and foremost that Mr. Schiff has a lot of smart things to say. Yes, the Federal Reserve is culpable and careless about its monetarist policy of inflationary increases to the money supply, especially as it helps put more air into asset bubbles (think the housing market). Yes, Americans borrow too much money for consumption that they don't really need. Yes, fiat currency is beholden to the whim of the market.

Schiff also makes some good and useful points that do not often appear in books about investing. First, he tells you how to actually invest in the things he recommends. Granted, he is often hawking his own wares (his company does many of the things he says investors must have, like stocks bought on foreign exchanges and custodial services for precious metals), but he also presents some things I'd never heard of (like GoldMoney.com) that could have some utility, even if you don't buy his argument whole. Second, he gives some guidance for potential career and business choices that stand to benefit from the disasters he sees befalling the U.S. economy. Though I disagree with him on numerous points, I think his efforts here are an important part of any plan that relates to investing--that is, how you get the money you plan to invest--but are generally ignored in most books on the subject.

However, I have some serious problems with this book. Six of them. First, it looks like it was rushed to press to capitalize on the recent market turmoil. I don't think they pushed it to market in the wake of the disastrous first few weeks in October, but when everything was going to hell back in July it looked like Schiff's predictions (ever-higher commodity prices and perpetual dollar weakness) were prescient. There are numerous typographical errors, and the title doesn't really seem to fit with Schiff's premise. These aren't bear-market strategies: this what Schiff thinks everyone should have been doing back when things were swell, and he even says that he said this very thing in a previous book. So while this book has a timely title, I don't think it is as useful as it wants to be.

Second, since July, commodities have been largely in freefall and the U.S. dollar has been the strongest performing developed-market currency, undermining most of Schiff's major points. Now he would say--as I do when my own strategies meet an extended bout of resistance--that this is merely a cyclical change and does not run counter to the secular pattern of surging prices of hard assets and the concomitant decline of the greenback. Still, it is hard to find his claims credible when he trumpets the early-July status as proof that his strategies work--including investing in developed foreign stock markets, whose performance has been in many cases worse than that of the U.S. and has been further savaged by weakness relative to the dollar.

Third, he underestimates or misrepresents exchange-traded funds (ETFs). At one point, Schiff lumps in ETFs with actively managed mutual funds as a bad idea because their sole purpose is to beat the market. Not so, and he even says so later on. Why the inconsistency? At another, he describes how he talked a prospective client out of investing in ETFs (admittedly in favor of paying Schiff to build and manage a custom portfolio) because he couldn't find any to invest in that didn't have large allocations to financial-services companies. True, financial serivces are often large chunks of broad-market ETFs for any country, but writing the entire product line off for that alone is short-sighted at best and self-serving at worst.

Fourth, he really skimps on his foreign-market preferences. Yes, he gives a long list that includes Australia, Singapore, Norway and Switzerland, but the information he offers to buttress his preference is apparently gleaned from the CIA Factbook, which anyone can access for free on the Internet. Why do I need him to regurgitate that? If I'm going to pay for his book, he needs to give me something more than information I can acquire at less cost elsewhere.

Fifth, Schiff says the only way back for the U.S. economy is to return to a production-based economy, one where the U.S. produces goods, not services. (At the same time, he says that the entertainment industry in the U.S. is evergreen.) I think he has something there, but it won't be that we'll start again making cotton underwear and tires. We might eventually, but only once the supply of places where workers will supply labor for less money is exhausted, and we've still got big sections of Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe and all of Africa to go through before we get there. We're going to have fulfill the single greatest requirement of any business in a free market: make what people want. Obama thinks that's energy technology. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. The point is that innovation and education are key, not an overpriced industrial base.

Sixth and finally, Schiff's notion of decoupling is debunked by this year's events. His analogy is that the U.S. thinks it is the engine of economic growth in the world, when really it's the caboose. If the rest of the world lets the caboose go, the rest of the train will be able to move faster. True, China and India will have their hands full of production and demand just supplying goods and services for their own populations. But for better or worse, the financial and economic fortunes of the developed and emerging worlds are married, perhaps not happily but married all the same.

In all, I am glad Schiff wrote this book, as it has allowed me to firm up my own ideas about markets and economies. I disagree, but I understand Schiff's strategies as a reaction to real problems. And in his defense, I don't think that investors would necessarily be all that bad off doing what he says. Inflation is a mostly invisible monster, but one that can be tamed. Paul Volcker did it (and Schiff credits him for it), and even feckless Ben Bernanke seems to have some newfound interest in pricking asset bubbles with interest rates and open-market actions. We'll see, but for now I'm sticking with my cheap U.S. stocks and my Treasury inflation-protected securities.

Having read Peter Schiffs books, followed his commentary, researched his opinions, including reading; Smith, Rothbard, Keynes & about Weimar; my opinion in relation to this book are as follows.

1. This is a very well written book.

2. The concepts are very well explained.

3. The diagnosis is solid and rational.

4. He calls a spade a spade.

5. Although I think the explanation of the issues is spot on, due to economic complexity, other credible alternative views regarding how (some of) this will play out & the best way to profit from it exist. (hence the 4 stars)

6. This is required reading regardless.

Now regarding point 5. Issues that I think could greatly reduce the effectiveness of adopting this strategy now are:

a) I'm not totally sold on inflation at this stage. Govts have to issue bonds to create money. (this is credit)

b) Commodity stocks and prices generally tank with the general stockmarket during recessions/depressions (not gold/gold stocks) and do not reliably enter the 20 year bull run until the bottom is reached, there may be some time to wait. (recent market action supports this)

I would not bet against this man, but I am proceeding with caution........, and with a hint of greed, analysing gold stocks now & commodity stocks for the medium to long term (3-5 years).

I tend not to listen much to financial folks since I am convinced that the vast majority are just guessing like the rest of us, except they get well paid for guessing with your money. If they guess correctly they are hailed as brilliant. If they guess wrong nobody notices and they get to keep guessing until they by happenstance get something right. At which point they become the brilliant genius du jour.

A few weeks ago I had never heard of Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital - a company name you will be very familiar with after reading this book. Then somebody sent me the now viral Youtube clip-show of arrogant financial "experts" telling Schiff over the past couple of years what an idiot he is for very calmly and repeatedly saying that the financial party is going to end soon. Which it did.

This book tells you what went wrong and what to do next. In the history department we are told, plausibly, that the mess we are in started a long time ago in part by a desire for instant gratification egged on by nonsensical lending practices in turn enabled by nincompoops at the Federal Reserve.

Schiff makes lots of interesting and valuable points, for example about real inflation and real unemployment - real as opposed to the government issued numbers that are manipulated to make the picture rosier than it is. He also points out that at the market peak in 1929 it took 19 ounces of gold to `buy the Dow' and that that number hasn't changed at all in 80 years. Actually, as of today, the Dow is at about $8500 and gold is selling for around $850 so now it only costs you 10 ounces of gold.

So, what to do in these messy times? Well, if you are young you should consider vocational training in a field such as shoe repair. Huh? Mr. Schiff's thinking is that the future will be bad enough that actually fixing broken stuff will again be all the rage since people won't have the money to buy new stuff.

If you hate the idea of touching other people's sweaty shoes you should at least consider moving out of cities, buying a gun, and be prepared to emigrate to some distant land where the future is not behind them. Oh, yeah, bring your gold with you, unless it is safely stored at the Perth Mint in Australia. Having followed Schiff's advice you have already traded your grimy US stocks in for much shinier foreign stocks, so you won't have to move them.

So, is - as CNBC likes to call him - Dr. Doom correct? Who knows? I'm not much for doomsday folks, but after reading the book I was for the first time ever seriously considering the possibility that we (the US) may not recover from the financial mess we are in for a very, very long time. A key reason it is different this time is that so much of the economy is now based on nothing tangible. At least after the Great Depression the manufacturing base was still there and people knew how to make stuff. Now American expertise mostly comprises borrowing money from China and spending the same money on instant gratification toys also from China.

While I tend to think that Mr. Schiff may well be correct, the trouble with long-term financial predictions is that this field, like medicine or the climate, is just too complex for anyone to understand well enough to make accurate predictions. As good as Schiff was in predicting the effect of the housing bubble, he clearly was blindsided by the consequent plummeting of commodities and foreign stocks, and the actual rise of the dollar. He says (although not in this book) that these are temporary slumps and perhaps he is correct. It's your money so feel free to follow him and hope that he is not 14 minutes into his 15 minutes of fame. Financial types always say that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Most of the time that maxim also applies to their advice. If nothing else this book is a pretty good read.

Schiff was among the few who predicted the economic crisis (way before this book was written). Therefore, what he had to say obviously came with some credibility.

In this book (completed in June of 2008), Schiff identified a number of problems with the US economy, most notably that it produces little exportable goods and services, imports and consumes more than it exports and produces, and from the average individual to the federal government the US is living beyond its means. The account deficit, the budget deficit, and the average savings rate are all proof for the notion.

Schiff compares the current economic crisis with the Great Depression, and identifies similarities and differences. His description of the current crisis is based on the premise that the demand destruction is mostly affecting the US, whereas the economic engines (the "BRIC" countries, most notably China) are decoupled from the US economy enough to drive demand for commodities even higher. Thus, whereas the demand destruction in the US would be a deflationary force, due to the uncoupling, the globalized economy will cause an inflation of prices, which will make goods even less affordable to US customers because of the continued fall of the dollar.

I think that the idea has some merit, at least in the long run. However, since the completion of the manuscript, the market's movements suggest that the decoupling idea is wrong. To be truthful, it might not be wrong, but the internal consumption of China and other countries might take time to compensate for the demand destruction in the US. Whether this is merely a delay, or the decoupling idea is totally wrong, only time will tell, but if one acted on Schiff's notion to invest in foreign markets, his losses have been worse than remaining in US stocks. The S&P500 held up better than the EAFE index, and even more so than the emerging markets.

If the idea of decoupling is wrong (as it looks like), the concern for inflation as the main problem is also wrong because what remains is the global demand destruction. The decreased demand is due to the shrinking amount of credit - Schiff also pointed out in this book that international investors will decrease their willingness to invest in US and to buy its Treasuries. All these factors, and the ongoing "deleveraging" (writing off losses, decreasing the debt levels by paying off more than the amount of new borrowing) point to deflation. Needless to say, investment strategies in deflation are different from those in inflation, and that's where the most important flaw in Schiff's book is.

In addition to investing in foreign stocks, betting against the dollar, Schiff also recommends investing in gold. In a deflationary phase, this is a bad idea. In contrast, the holding physical cash (something that Schiff implicitly frowns on) is a good one. However, I still believe that Schiff's idea of holding gold in the portfolio is worth considering. For one, fiat money is bound to lose value in the long run. In addition, gold would be a good hedge in case the deflation were to be be successfully fought by the Feds (i.e., the efforts of "reflation" succeeded). Gold's advantages also include liquidity. Schiff makes concrete recommendations how to own gold, and some appear to be very sound, offering protection against a potential resurfacing of Roosevelt-era gold confiscation laws.

There is a specific recommendation that I have found suspicious: Investing in gold mining stocks. Schiff stated in this book that gold mining stocks shined during the stock market decline of the Great Depression. This statement is at odds with Robert Prechter's book (Conquer The Crash; Wiley, 2002), according to which gold mining stocks were down. I have no reliable source to verify either claim, but one of them is wrong. (My bias is that Schiff is wrong.)

Schiff's solution to the crisis involves buying gold and buying high dividend foreign stocks on foreign exchanges. For both, one needs the service of a specialized brokerage firm. Conveniently, Schiff's firm is providing these "must have" services... Whether this apparent conflict of interest is undermining your confidence in Schiff's recommendations is up to you.

There were some surprising recommendations in this book to survive the coming calamity. Schiff recommended stockpiling food and other necessities, some of which can be used for bartering. I am sure that Schiff forgot his years in a two-bedroom rental apartment (if he ever lived in one). Where is the storage space? And if one lives in a 4-bedroom family home that has ample storage space, the person may not need to barter. If he needs bartering, the foreclosure of the home is imminent. It is also highly unlikely that the person who invested in gold through the Perth Mint (as per Schiff's recommendation; minimum initial investment of US$10,000) will need to barter a couple of cartons of cigarettes or canned soup... In deflation, these investments will lose value. In addition, they are illiquid. The idea of stockpiling food and water is good for only one thing: To prepare for disasters, either natural (such as a tornado) or man-made (e.g., a terrorist attack).

Some of Schiff's policy recommendations are politically loaded. He would like to avoid social unrest in the US, but the very policies that he recommends would probably bring about the unrest that he fears. Schiff might not like to spend on food stamps, but he seems to forget that a full stomach is the best antidote against revolution and rioting.

Altogether, the book is more flawed than correct. I would rather recommend Prechter's Conquer The Crash, and the strategies outlined there. To be sure, once we are at the bottom of the stock market (and it may need to correct from here downward significantly), buying commodities, and using Schiff's notions of foreign investment will make very good sense. The problem with this book is not what it recommends, but when he recommends to act on the ideas. Unfortunately, timing is crucial in investing.

I really recommend this book to anyone who wants to know the truth about the financial situation of this country, and it is really scary.
Peter Schiff explains the situation in a way that it is very easy to understand. He gives possible scenarios of what we can expect to live in this economic collapse and he gives many advices about what we can do to face the new reality of the American economy.

Another masterpiece from one of the very few economists that get it right year after year. His first book was eye-opening and this one is no different. His ability to put truth above anything distinguishes Mr. Schiff from mainstream media counterparts. If you like to being spoon-fed lies watch Kudlow & Company...if you want the truth, this book is a good place to start.

Dollar Decline:

1. Invest in foreign companies with a. high dividend earnings b. participating in global exports c. part of an economy that is growing (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico).

2. If foreign currency is spent in the American market place, foreign dollars compete with domestic dollars sending prices higher.

3. Foreigners bought dollars. Foreign currency is converted to dollars to buy items in the American Market. As demand increases, dollar price increases.

4. Efforts to combat recession through stimulus measures mean more money chasing a given supply of goods, inflation.

5. The dollar will decline even though interest rates will inevitability rise. A nontraditional investment approach is required, getting out of the US dollar and into commodities, precious metals, and equities in foreign countries.

6. Timing when to invest was more critical than if to invest. As the global economy dropped into recession, foreign countries spent heavily to subsidize the dollar and massive buying of the dollar occurred. The perception was the US economy was the safe haven to move money. Foreign equities values dropped off sharply, as the recession deepened.

7. We have to compare changes in nominal prices to price changes in commodities (Precious Metals, Agriculture commodities). Commodities correctly adjust to inflation. Commodity price inflation is the standard by which to measure prices.

8. Foreigners accumulate dollars. If foreigners spend their dollars to buy American companies through sovereign wealth funds then earnings streams will be diverted back to foreign owners.

9. How to foreign governments adjust their currencies? Foreign government buy dollars (Buy), invest in US treasuries (Loan), and sell their currency on the foreign exchange (Trade). Adjusting the currencies is a way to export inflation. Foreign currencies gain less value against the dollar.

10. Rising import costs occurs simultaneously as the dollar value drops, along with the standard of living in America.

11. Prices rise as the result of the fed printing money. Rising energy prices increases inflation indexes.

12. As commodity prices rise then all currencies are losing value. The dollar was losing value faster than the euro but the euro, also was losing value.

13. As more agriculture products are produced, prices should be falling.

14. True economic growth causes prices to fall. Growth means produces are cheaper, unemployment low, and output increasing.

15. A recession sheds government debt. Debt can be temporary. Shed the debt and growth will resume.

16. The Inflation rate could be 8-10 percent. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 2-3 percent. US manufacturing exports are growing. National Debt health is measured as a percentage of GDP.

17. Productivity measures the amount of consumer goods (Output) a business is capable of producing in a given time.

18. Unemployment rates exclude long-term unemployment counts. The result is over optimistic employment views.

19. Stocks that reinvest earnings as a way to financing growth are more speculative than stocks that payout earnings in dividends.

20. Wall Street has conditioned the public to believe that long-term capital gains potential of stocks is equal to bonds. Wall Street investment banking job is to sell stocks and keep clients happy.

21. As credit dries and discretionary spending collapses, companies will either scale back on volume or cut prices to turn a profit. It would seem logical that because cost to build the product decreases that the product price would decrease, but instead, price remains the same, and production decreases. As a result, GDP declines and the economy moves towards prolonged recession.

22. Asset prices (Real Estate) will fall much further in prices in relationship to Gold than goods prices (Gold).

23. Materials, Mining, energy, and agriculture commodities will benefit from the commodity boom.

24. Oil service companies (Service - Moat) are likely to prosper benefitting from oil market and unlikely to be hit with excess profit taxes. (Baker Hughes, Schlumberger, and Halliburton) Profit from the get-go.

25. Low commodity prices cause overutilization of resources and under-investment in capacity, resulting in low supply relative to demand. (Investment opportunity)

26. As a general rule, stock prices fall as commodity prices rise.

27. Domestic producers will face significant tax increases that foreign companies will not.

28. Gold is a wealth preserver, not a wealth gainer.

29. American Depository Receipts (ADRs) are foreign stocks listed on US stock exchanges. ADRs are receipts for foreign shares held in domestic bank vaults. ADRs pay dividends, entitle voting rights, and other shareholder rights. (Issued by Sony and Toshiba)

30. Developed foreign countries to watch: Austria, Beligium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain. Asia countries: Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and Philippines.

The ten strongest professions and industries in the next decade:

1. Engineering: Mechanical, electrical, computer science will be needed to rebuild the industrial base.
2. Construction: Construction will be strong for individuals who will rebuild America's roads, bridges, tunnels, public transportation systems, communication lines, and infrastructure.
3. Agriculture: US will grow its own food as imports become more expensive. Dollar devaluation will cause any item being exported to become more expensive as foreign money competes for the purchase of these items. There will be opportunity in agriculture in the coming decade, as trade imbalances correct.
4. Merchant marine: Merchant marine business will increase. As imports become more expensive, a demand for US shipping will increase to handle increased volume of exports.
5. Commercial Fishing: Commercial fishing and fish farming will be a growing industry. Currently, the US imports over 90 percent of the fish it consumes. As imports become more expensive, the US will grow its own fish.
6. Energy: As the dollar declines the price of oil will increase. Growth and consumption by China and India drove oil prices above $140 a barrel. The US exports over 300 billion barrels of oil a year.
7. Computers and high technology: The US will continue to remain a leader in computer manufacturing.
8. Entertainment: The US is a huge exporter of entertainment. As dollar declines oversea customer will purchase entertainment products, or US production facilities and talent and create product.
9. Automotive repair and small appliance repair: US consumers will be keeping their car on the road longer. Car repair skills will become more valuable.
10. Tailoring and Textiles: Rising prices will cut off the flow of inexpensive clothing items. There will be a growing need for tailoring and clothing repair. Import clothes will become more scarce and expensive.