Comprehensively covering all aspects of long-range forecasting methods relevant to the social, behavioral and management sciences, this book is a synthesis of research in economics, sociology, psychology, transportation, education, and management - with occasional references to work in medicine, meterology, and technology. It describes a variety of forecasting methods, their strengths and weaknesses, and how to use them effectively, shows how to structure a forecasting problem, and gives detailed procedures for evaluating forecasting models in order to select the appropriate method for a particular problem. The book draws upon material from approximately 1300 books and articles, and includes original research by the author.
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5.0 out of 5 stars
Best book on predictions and integrating methods,
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This review is from: Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer (Hardcover)
As far as I can tell, there are just two editions. I have both. The 2nd edition was released in 1985. Both editions are heavily underlined and dog-eared from repeated readings.This MIT professor has done a masterful job at describing the process of making predictions and forecasting. The book is extremely easy to read and is well footnoted. This is obviously a labor of love for this expert on forecasting. You'll laugh at some of his stories of predictions gone astray or methodologies foolishly executed. There's not much math to this book (680 pages) but there is a lot of logic and thinking going on. This book covers all the major forms of forecasting and discusses the pro's and con's of each method. It provides many, many examples of forecasts. He then analyzes them to back up his major points. Then goes on to recommend why you should combine forecast methodologies to increase your accuracy. If you're an economist making forecasts on the economy, or if your a stock analyst making forecasts for Earnings, you'll enjoy this book. The book is aimed at researchers preparing forecasts for economics and social sciences. My interest was in the stock market and commoditiy markets. And I feel I was richly rewarded with this book. This book gives you the framework to work within. Other books give the math background for each of the techniques. The author has been very active in writing articles for journals and has helped start a journal for the forecasting field. Must have book, if you make any kind of forecasts - including just forecasting your business's sales. I can't recommend it highly enough. John Dunbar
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