Customer Reviews

Make Your Own Luck: 12 Practical Steps to Taking Smarter Risks in Business

5 star:		(11)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

Frankly, I did not know quite what to expect as I began to read this book but it soon became obvious that Shapiro and Stevenson have much of value to say about the relevance of gambling to business organizations as well as to an individual's business career and personal life. They offer a concept which they call "Predictive Intelligence" (PI): "the ability to act in the face of uncertainty to bring about desired results." It involves a process which begins with recognizing whether or not one is in a betting situation. If so, they recommend "The Gambler's Dozen," steps by which to increase one's PI and thereby improve the odds when "placing" business bets, career bets, and life bets. If all this seems hokey, blame me. It really isn't. Shapiro and Stevenson are quite serious when asserting that "every purposive action is a bet; one acts now on the expectation or hope, but not the certainty, of the results that will be achieved in the future." I agree. Given that premise, it is highly desirable to increase one's PI. Shapiro and Stevenson explain how.

Each of the steps which comprise "The Gambler's Dozen" is carefully positioned within the OOPA! process (i.e. Orient, Organize, Predict, and Act!) and for each, the authors create a context with equal care. Step #6, for example, should be initiated only after having completed the previous five Steps. Perhaps the easiest way to grasp Shapiro and Stevenson's methodology is to think of it as a sequence ot questions to be answered:

1. What future (i.e. desirable results) am I trying to create?
2. Will playing this "game" be worth it for me?
3. Do I need to make a radical shift now?
4. Whose help will I need and how must I obtain it?
5. How much "magic" will my current bets require?
6. If my current plan fails (or is insufficient), what is my Plan B?
7. What's the future space I'm betting into?
8. What are my best "left side" bets?
9. How much risk can I shed or shift?
10. What's the "it" I'm betting into?
11. Will I then be locked into a tighter set of follow-up bets?
12. How will I know when to call it quits?

Over a period of time, through repeated use, this checklist will become almost second nature to "players" on Wall Street and in Las Vegas as well as to those making complicated career decisions and to executives who must decide, for example, whether or not to introduce a new product or service.

In Blink, Malcolm Gladwell suggests that many of the best decisions are made instinctively, without much (if any) "homework," analysis, verification, etc. I agree. However, what Gladwell really doesn't consider in much depth is the fact that many "made in the blink of an eye" decisions reflect extensive prior experience in comparable situations. For example, many decisions in combat or in emergency rooms have life-or-death implications and must be made almost instantaneously. A master automotive mechanic may need only to listen to a running engine or to drive a vehicle a short distance before knowing almost immediately what a given problem is. Shapiro and Stevenson would add that gamblers seated at a Blackjack table or located around a Craps table in a casino have only a few seconds to place a bet. Those who understand and have followed "The Gambler's Dozen" have neither more nor less time than does anyone else but they ARE better informed to take smarter risks. Do they always win? Of course not.

This is a thoughtful, eloquent, and entertaining book. Its recommendations are eminently practical. "The Gambler's Dozen" concept has almost unlimited applications. True, you can place smart bets (i.e. make excellent decisions) in all areas of your life without Shapiro and Stevenson's assistance...but why take that chance?

Although in previous reviews, the word "easy" is used, the value of this book is found by taking the time to give it serious study. "Make Your Own Luck" is not a simple read with slap-your-head insight at the end of each chapter. Rather, it provides a step-by-step methodology that, if you understand and follow it, increases the odds of your success.

Even though I'm a highly productive person, prior to buying this book, my thoughts and actions related to a business plan were scattered and unproductive. Based on my anxiety, I instantly understood the value of "The Gambler's Dozen Predictive Map." This technique shows how to match goals (bets) against probability (the unknown), a process so clarifying that it inspired me to created a software application so I could easily use this technique on a wide-range of issues.

I just finished studying the concept of "risk splits." After mastering the Predictive Map, it still took a few hours to wrap my mind around what the authors were describing; not because they are unclear, but because I've never before cast my thoughts using the patterns that they suggest. What I learned is that the hardest thing about making winning business decisions is understanding the impact of the future. By employing "risk splits," I can now look back from the future to analyze today, which is a major shift in my thinking process.

I'm starting to define my "It," a task of concisely describing my business that I've put off for the past year. As I'm a writer and a programmer, describing objectives is easy for me. In this case, however, I've come to realize that the uncontrollable elements revealed in my Predictive Map increased my anxiety and scrambled my brain. In other words, without employing "magic thinking" (more commonly called "BS"), I didn't know enough about my own project to make a meaningful statement, or properly invest my time and money (called "marbles" in Luck-speak) to make it come to life.

This book is a must read for anyone who is serious about improving the odds that their actions will produce the intended results.

The book has at least four things going for it:
* The authors' deep, relevant experience in business, business theory and real-world decision making.
* A practical, straightforward approach to acting in the face of uncertainty -- based on the sequential application of 12 skills and processes that, taken together, should improve anyone's "predictive intelligence."
* Stories -- lots of engaging, memorable stories that bring the process to life.
* Interactive elements that allow you to test your understanding of the material.

For me, Make Your Own Luck has been more than just another good business book. As the CEO of a start-up business, I and my associates face more than our share of uncertainty. And, given our limited resources, the consequences of bad bets can be particularly unwelcome.

We faced just such a situation a month ago when an important part of our business was underperforming. So, we turned to Make Your Own Luck and quickly realized that the source of our problems laid in steps 5 and 6 of the Gambler's Dozen, where we had relied on too much "magic" while failing to deal with an "elephant in the living room" (read the book and you will understand). Fortunately, we had a Plan B (also covered in step 6) and we are back on track.

The book's advice was direct and effective - almost as though we had Shapiro and Stevenson on our Board asking tough questions and offering possible solutions. Like I said, it is a must read.

This book presents a methodology for making messy decisions quickly... and most important decisions are messy. It is doubtful that anyone decided to choose a spouse based on some type of quantitative matrix.

The authors, Eileen Shapiro and Howard Stevenson, lay out a twelve point methodology revolving around key questions that must be answered before a businessperson decides to take a business risk.

They suggest that it's more important to cover all twelve of the questions quickly than going into just a few deeply. I found their questions and methodology helpful and the book was easy and fun to read. Some of their points were a reminder of obvious things, but the framework of all twelve questions provided more coverage and forces you to cover them all.

I found the book difficult to follow in some spots. The authors or editors tried to make the points too fun, contemporary, exiciting, edgy ("buff dudes and dudettes of our haiku"). Somewhere around the sixth point, I tried to skim through the long examples. I found it difficult to pick out the authors content from their illustrations and jocular comments. Although I found the examples entertaining and informative, they should have been edited down to one paragraph each so the rationale could be more apparent. Having said that, I liked many of the examples and particularly the discussion of Jack Welch and GE.

Their Prediction Maps were very interesting to me and I think the reader would find them most helpful too. I stumbled over them a little at first. The book could have also detailed methods to prepare the observations that go on the Prediction Maps. These Prediction Maps help you identify your high probability predictions and observations that have high impact to your results.

The big benefit of this book is that the methodology they propose fits very well the types of fuzzy decisions faced by businesspeople. The methodology is easy to apply and fairly comprehensive. A favorite expression for this might be "go wide, before going deep."

Readers wanting something more quantitative for large financial investments might also try the very readable "The Book of Risk" by Dan Borge.

After reading this book, you may want to condense this twelve point methodology down to something easy to carry or pin on the wall. The authors have conveniently provided this for you in their Appendix.

John Dunbar
Sugar Land, TX

Generally, my eyes glaze over as I reach chapter 3 of most business books as they provide the mastery of the intuitively obvious. Make Your Own Luck by Shapiro and Stevenson has broken the pattern. Written in punchy conversational style, the book is a delightful combination of anecdotes and useful tools geared to help the reader up the odds in personal and business decision-making. The process of setting goals and assessing risk is broken down into discrete aspects, allowing the reader to assess his own patterns of success and failure. This sounds as if it could be tedious, but it's not. The authors know you are not sitting in a policy course. They know that you make numerous bets in any given day and do it most of the time without focusing on the decision as a bet. The book makes you conscious of those bets and gives you the groundwork to move through those bets with speed and focus. In managing investments, I'm betting on a gestalt of macro economic factors and company specific performance as well as betting on the actions of other investors. The tools in Make Your Own Luck, such as the Prediction Map, are completely applicable to the inferential analysis I use in managing investments as well as life's major problems, such as how to seat guests at the next dinner party. This book is a good read. Shapiro and Stevenson incorporate topics from baseball to the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Make Your Own Luck makes you laugh, makes your think and gives you tools to improve your own lot.

As a serial entrepreneur, I am always on the look out for books that can help me to make better decisions for my company. I enjoyed Good to Great by Jim Collins and Blink by Malcom Gladwell but walked away from the books thinking "How do I apply this knowledge?" Make Your Own Luck (...) by Eileen Shapiro and Howard Stevenson is an entertainingly written book that provides a clear and actionable set of steps to placing better bets - in business and in life. I have shared this book with my management team and is has sharpened our decision making capabilities. I also shared the book with my wife (who is in grad school). She has actual found the steps outlined to be useful in approaching scientific experiments. Another friend of mine has successfully applied the author's methodology to his formerly strained relationship with his girlfriend. In short, this book is a sure bet.

Decisions are BETS, and neither should be one step actions -- at least not if they are going to be good ones. "Making Your Own Luck" makes clear that the question to ask is not whether or not to "bet", but rather what one wants from the bet, what directions might get there, and what can help you bet most safely and with the greatest probability of winning.

Our group found the chapter on "Defining the IT" particularly beneficial. Like a laser, consciously examining the core of what we wanted to accomplish helped us to cut through confusion and frustration, and became the cornerstone of our analysis. Clarity increased our efficiency, too, because it eliminated distracting options from the outset.

Yes it's work -- but with the stories and models for success provided by Shapiro and Stevenson, it's fun work about which you feel great. After all, you've used your feelings and intellect to tip the scales to get "one for your side". The process is not only for business or those weighty decisions. Relationships, shopping, how to use that free evening -- all benefit from thoughtful reflection.

The "Make Your Own Luck" website (...) has a fun feature "Test Your Mojo" that gives a sense of the book and insight into your own betting strengths and potential foibles.

I read "Make your own luck" more or less in one go this weekend. Its unquestionably worth the time and money. This doesn't mean I agree with everything in the book; but then if nothing in a book makes you uncomfortable, you probably didn't read it carefully or its not as good as you think it is.
The book stands between standard texts on decision theory on the one hand and Malcolm Gladwell's bestseller, Blink on the other.
Texts on decision-making provide a well-integrated, mathematically flawless theory. Unfortunately the theory leaves a lot out - for instance it tells you how to maximize your objective function ("goals" in common language) but says nothing about how you determine these goals. Similarly you learn how to choose between options but not how you arrive at these options in the first place. The Shapiro and Stevenson book addresses these critical gaps. It reminds you about the importance of determining your goals (self-evidently true, but how often we forget to) and provides rules of thumb or heuristics for where and how to look for the options that standard theory assumes somehow materialize.
Moreover, the heuristics can endure when than mathematical formulae are long forgotten: how many people who studied Bayes rule (and didn't go on to become academics) actually remember what it says?
Unlike a standard text, the book rests on engaging stories: the authors communicate their rules of thumb through anecdotes and apparently have derived these rules from anecdotes. Purists may sniff but it's the stories that make the book useful. Its trite and not particularly helpful to tell me to think about my ultimate goals; but if I've read memorable stories about people who did or didn't, I'm more likely to remember to do the obvious thing in a clutch situation.
"Make your own luck" also made me think of Blink. At one level the messages of the two books seem to be in conflict. Gladwell claims that in many situations you have to rely on your intuition to make snap judgments because there just isn't enough time to do any thing else. Shapiro and Stevenson seem to take the opposite tack: they suggest that you follow all their rules in a structured and self-conscious way, including writing out our premises and arguments. I'm unpersuaded. In fact I think like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates, each of their rules is delectable on its own, and it may be inadvisable to eat the whole lot at once. And, I see the anecdotes as working mainly by seeping into the unconscious, so that when the time comes they can make better snap judgments. So I think the book is a complement to Blink, upgrading the reader's intuition rather than as a substitute for the formulaic prescriptions of standard decision theory. That makes it well worth the price of admission.

As others have noted, it's an easy book to quickly read and underestimate, but it's a very useful book when you actively think it through. I can vouch for its value as I'm about to use it for the second time in my undergrad intro to Entrepreneurship class at Marquette U. Judging from the quality of the plans last time (following the general outline of the appendix) and from their comments, they really have managed to develop personally meaningful, realistic and actionable plans. The first clue I had that the book has this quality was when I noticed that my wife, who is a busy business lawyer, was spending a lot of care going over it in the evenings, while preparing for a major case. So I'd conclude that it is useful for a range of readers.

Make Your Own Luck is an excellent book, with more pragmatic, useful content than I've found in most business books.

My background is in engineering and science, then business. As an engineer, I really liked that there's a "right answer." Or at least, there are clear wrong answers (the bridge will collapse if we make it out of tissue paper, period). In business, things aren't so easy. Most situations have too many factors to identify, let alone consider deeply. Shareholders interact with managers who interact with technology and customer service people and engineers and operations and ... it's tough to know how to think about all this.

<cite>Make Your Own Luck</cite> lays out a 12-step process (hmm...) for taking risks. Some of the steps sound simple: Know your big goals before you begin, so when you make bets in your life, you're betting on what you actually want. Sounds obvious? Yeah, but in my own work with executives, I've found that people easily lose sight of their real goals(1). The power from Shapiro and Stevenson's approach comes from having a rigorous checklist to consider when making risky bets.

Some of their tools help evaluate risks that I've never known how to tackle. For example, the authors give us "prediction maps," a tool for identifying low-risk, high-reward opportunities. Simple, elegant, and practically useful. Their other big new tool is "uncertainty grids." Uncertainty grids let you quickly test your plans against combinations of uncertainties to realize whether you've unconsciously anchored yourself to a single scenario, or whether your plans can survive multiple uncertain events.

Behind the tools, they slip in some subtle thinking shifts that are worth pondering in detail. In a paragraph or two, they dismiss "high rewards require high risks" and claim you don't need high risk to get high rewards. Maybe in their world, but that's not how I think. Yet I've also heard Warren Buffett say something similar, so I'm changing my beliefs around risk/reward. That said, it would have been nice if they had pulled out some of their mindset shifts and devoted more time to helping me-as-reader explore what amount to big changes in worldview.

The writing style is fun, with thought experiments between the chapters, a final chapter of scenarios to analyze using the 12 steps, and haiku or other verse at the start of each chapter. I found it a pleasant change from the overly heavy style of most substantive business books, and it was an easy read cover-to-cover that did justice to its excellent content.

I heartily recommend the book. Go check it out!

- Stever

(1) Being a professional, of course, I never, ever lose sight of my own goals. Really.