The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist--How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives [Paperback]

Cal Orey (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: December 15, 2005

Meet Jim Berkland, a California geologist whose forecast of the famous October 17, 1989 World Series Quake that rumbled through the San Francisco Bay Area was right on the money. This is the first book to document a geologist's uncanny ability to foretell earthquakes around the world. This facinating read includes stories of earthquake survivors, a wealth of details about seismic activity in earthquake prone regions around the world.

Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Cal Orey is an accomplished author and journalist who has written hundreds of articles for a variety of national magazines. She specializes in topics as diverse as health, nutrition, relationships, and pets. Her articles have appeared in publications such as The Writer, Woman's World, Woman's Day, and Complete Woman, for which she also is a contributing editor. Ms. Orey is also has written articles for Dog World and Dog Fancy, and she is the California editor for PetFolio. She lives in South Lake Tahoe, California.

Product Details

• Paperback: 282 pages
• Publisher: Sentient Publications; First Edition edition (December 15, 2005)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1591810361
• ISBN-13: 978-1591810360
• Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 5.9 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.8 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (17 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #670,848 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #48 in Books > Professional & Technical > Professional Science > Earth Sciences > Geology > Volcanology
  • #91 in Books > Professional & Technical > Professional Science > Earth Sciences > Seismology

More About the Author

Cal Orey is a Northern California-based accomplished author and journalist specializing in topics such as health, nutrition, science, and pets. She holds two degrees in English (Creative Writing) from SFSU. Her books include the popular Healing Powers book series (based on the recent U.S. News Top 3 ranked Mediterranean Diet)--translated in more than 15 languages around the globe. The Healing Powers of Vinegar, Olive Oil, Chocolate, and Honey attracts a mainstream audience (for all ages) due to the lively, witty style and edgy information.
The author experiences the superfoods and their benefits, home cures (both internally and externally), beauty, pets, and household treatments, scrumptious and healthy pro-chef recipes, and she shares up close and very personal anecdotes in each and every Healing Powers book. Plus, she interviewed top experts around the world to back up her own findings. Her website is www.calorey.com and blog http://calorey.blogspot.com/ The Writing Gourmet.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

21 of 24 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Not What I Expected, March 31, 2006

By 

G. Poirier (Orleans, ON, Canada) - See all my reviews
(TOP 1000 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist--How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives (Paperback)

When I first saw this book's title and subtitle, thoughts of a new Alfred Wegener came to mind. I thought that, perhaps, this "maverick geologist" is really on to something. But it became clear to me after reading the first few pages that this book was not at all what I had expected. Instead of basing predictions on well-grounded science, some of the parameters used by this geologist tend to border on what many would call the paranormal. Nevertheless, I read on; perhaps his approach really works, I thought. After reading the book cover to cover, it is my opinion that if this geologist has indeed discovered a fairly reliable way of predicting earthquakes, then this book does not do him any favors - in fact it does the exact opposite. This book is really a jumble of topics related to earthquakes with no apparent logical progression. It contains a very brief mini-biography of the geologist (a couple of pages), several repetitive comments on his campaign to have his methods recognized by the scientific establishment, anecdotes from people who have experienced various earthquakes, many repetitive statements on certain earthquakes, discussions on animals being able to sense earthquakes before they happen, on people who claim that they can do the same, on clairvoyants and even on Nostradamus's predictions - all these peppered haphazardly throughout. What I believe the author should have done to truly promote this geologist and his methods is to be very objective and neutral; to subject his results to the scrutiny of the scientific method and very carefully analyze his predictions (and whether or not they pan out) using standard scientific and statistical methods. This would establish whether his predictions are indeed better than chance, and if so, by how much. But when the arguments presented are mainly one-sided and the scientific establishment is potrayed as, at best, being closed-mided, the author's agenda comes into question and so does the soundness of the subject matter being promoted. Although lacking in logical structure, the book's prose is clear and friendly. This book would likely be of some interest to those living in earthquake-prone areas, those with an interest in learning about earthquake descriptions and survivor experiences, those interested in the dos and don'ts regarding earthquakes and, of course, those interested in the methods used by some to predict earthquakes.

25 of 31 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Well-written fiction, February 13, 2006

By 

John E. Vidale "conventional Earth scientist" (Seattle, WA USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist--How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives (Paperback)

An entertaining book, I hope it is classified as biography rather than science. Jim O. Berkland, the self-proclaimed JOB, battles high science with his claims that earthquakes can be predicted by counting runaway dogs and cats (p. 48), ear tones (p. 65), headaches (p. 67), dreams (p. 75), and solar flares (p. 111).

Other interesting claims include that magnets lost their strength before the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (p. 113), that someone had a psychic premonition of the 9-11 WTC collapses (p. 129), there is perhaps earthquake weather - "warm, humid, deathly quiet" (p. 211), an earthquake time of day - near dawn and dusk (p. 212), an M5.3 earthquake generated 18"-high waves (p. 229).

His foremost claim is that predictions based on tides are accurate enough to issue warnings. Unfortunately, this idea is centuries old, and was debunked decades ago with precision and emphasis by dozens of much more careful studies than Berkland has done.

Still, much of the rest of the book (the parts I did NOT mention above) is accurate and most of it interesting, a good compendium of folklore well-told.

Postcript: I got an email from a USGS scientist as an alert that my name was on this moderately favorable review of a controversial book, suspecting it was a pretender. I guess someone does read these reviews.

9 of 12 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars A semi-interesting read about a sad phenomenon ..., March 21, 2008

By 

Gregory E. Smith (Portland, OR USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist--How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives (Paperback)

But really, what is sadder? That he has convinced himself, or that he has convinced others? How ironic that we have more access to more real non-biased data than any people anywhere at any other time in history, and that scientists are discovering more about nature at an unprecedented pace, and yet superstitions continue to be thriving despite it all. It's no surprise that we revere entertainers over scientists in this world, but it is sad.

Folks: NO HUMAN HAS EVER predicted earthquakes with a pattern of accuracy (hits without false alarms) in a way that exceeds random chance. (I should note I use random chance to refer to the known historical frequencies/magnitudes of earthquakes in the "prediction" regions from publicly available records.)

Many engage in the practice of fooling themselves with an unconciously selective review of data to make themselves believe, but none of their claims have ever stood up to rigorous statistical analysis. Should they have a statistically significant record of predicting these events beyond random chance, every seismologist in the world would be studying their techniques and perceptions.

And that goes for the other reviewer of this book who simultaneously offers a 5-star review and claims to be the only Parkfield "predictor". Wow.

-Greg