Customer Reviews

The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist--How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives

5 star:		(12)
4 star:		(3)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

When I first saw this book's title and subtitle, thoughts of a new Alfred Wegener came to mind. I thought that, perhaps, this "maverick geologist" is really on to something. But it became clear to me after reading the first few pages that this book was not at all what I had expected. Instead of basing predictions on well-grounded science, some of the parameters used by this geologist tend to border on what many would call the paranormal. Nevertheless, I read on; perhaps his approach really works, I thought. After reading the book cover to cover, it is my opinion that if this geologist has indeed discovered a fairly reliable way of predicting earthquakes, then this book does not do him any favors - in fact it does the exact opposite. This book is really a jumble of topics related to earthquakes with no apparent logical progression. It contains a very brief mini-biography of the geologist (a couple of pages), several repetitive comments on his campaign to have his methods recognized by the scientific establishment, anecdotes from people who have experienced various earthquakes, many repetitive statements on certain earthquakes, discussions on animals being able to sense earthquakes before they happen, on people who claim that they can do the same, on clairvoyants and even on Nostradamus's predictions - all these peppered haphazardly throughout. What I believe the author should have done to truly promote this geologist and his methods is to be very objective and neutral; to subject his results to the scrutiny of the scientific method and very carefully analyze his predictions (and whether or not they pan out) using standard scientific and statistical methods. This would establish whether his predictions are indeed better than chance, and if so, by how much. But when the arguments presented are mainly one-sided and the scientific establishment is potrayed as, at best, being closed-mided, the author's agenda comes into question and so does the soundness of the subject matter being promoted. Although lacking in logical structure, the book's prose is clear and friendly. This book would likely be of some interest to those living in earthquake-prone areas, those with an interest in learning about earthquake descriptions and survivor experiences, those interested in the dos and don'ts regarding earthquakes and, of course, those interested in the methods used by some to predict earthquakes.

An entertaining book, I hope it is classified as biography rather than science. Jim O. Berkland, the self-proclaimed JOB, battles high science with his claims that earthquakes can be predicted by counting runaway dogs and cats (p. 48), ear tones (p. 65), headaches (p. 67), dreams (p. 75), and solar flares (p. 111).

Other interesting claims include that magnets lost their strength before the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (p. 113), that someone had a psychic premonition of the 9-11 WTC collapses (p. 129), there is perhaps earthquake weather - "warm, humid, deathly quiet" (p. 211), an earthquake time of day - near dawn and dusk (p. 212), an M5.3 earthquake generated 18"-high waves (p. 229).

His foremost claim is that predictions based on tides are accurate enough to issue warnings. Unfortunately, this idea is centuries old, and was debunked decades ago with precision and emphasis by dozens of much more careful studies than Berkland has done.

Still, much of the rest of the book (the parts I did NOT mention above) is accurate and most of it interesting, a good compendium of folklore well-told.

Postcript: I got an email from a USGS scientist as an alert that my name was on this moderately favorable review of a controversial book, suspecting it was a pretender. I guess someone does read these reviews.

But really, what is sadder? That he has convinced himself, or that he has convinced others? How ironic that we have more access to more real non-biased data than any people anywhere at any other time in history, and that scientists are discovering more about nature at an unprecedented pace, and yet superstitions continue to be thriving despite it all. It's no surprise that we revere entertainers over scientists in this world, but it is sad.

Folks: NO HUMAN HAS EVER predicted earthquakes with a pattern of accuracy (hits without false alarms) in a way that exceeds random chance. (I should note I use random chance to refer to the known historical frequencies/magnitudes of earthquakes in the "prediction" regions from publicly available records.)

Many engage in the practice of fooling themselves with an unconciously selective review of data to make themselves believe, but none of their claims have ever stood up to rigorous statistical analysis. Should they have a statistically significant record of predicting these events beyond random chance, every seismologist in the world would be studying their techniques and perceptions.

And that goes for the other reviewer of this book who simultaneously offers a 5-star review and claims to be the only Parkfield "predictor". Wow.

-Greg

In this fascinating book, Cal Orey introduces us to Jim Berkland, a maverick geologist who studies earthquakes and the events that surround them. He is a maverick inasmuch as many of his theories and conclusions are ignored by the establishment, but prove to be correct more often than not. He has researched earthquakes and their patterns. He has tracked the behavior of animals such the increase in "missing pets" just prior to a quake. By studying the physical reactions of humans (like headaches and the hearing of high-pitched tones) before a quake and charting the lunar and planetary alignments and tides, he has been able to predict with great accuracy the likelihood of impending earthquakes. While other scientists scoff at his "unscientific" methods, his work has been invaluable. In this book, Cal Orey discusses the multitude of quakes that have occurred, the behaviors and activities surrounding them and gives the reader a thorough understanding of what earthquakes are all about. She even offers "to do" lists for earthquake preparation. A very interesting read, this book brings the reader into a world where many people worldwide live on a daily basis - that world that waits for "the big one."

I wrote the introduction to *The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes* because I believe that James Berkland's work on earthquake prediction deserves serious attention. Cal Orey's book provides a valuable contribution to our understanding of mysterious earthquake precursors and it offers a fascinating overview of James Berkland's colorful career as a maverick geologist. Berkland's adventures and explorations on the frontiers of scientific discovery will haunt conventional seismologists and intrigue open-minded students of unexplained phenomena.

I really enjoyed this book. It belongs in the category of intuitive knowledge, things which we know from a sense that the science establishment refuses to acknowledge despite overwhelming evidence and a successful track record. The reading is light, with just enough technical detail to lay a good foundation for the ideas which, though they cannot be considered theory, have enough clout to convince the reader that there is more to predicting earthquakes than meters and measurements, or at least an alternative method for the open minded.

This book discusses earthquakes and other natural disasters at a level that you and I can understand and use. Ms. Orey and Mr. Berkland have documented and backed up their statements.

More importantly, Ms. Orey, like a good teacher, gives her students important things to remember. After you read each chapter, examine the "Earthshaking Facts to Dog Ear."

I have read and analyzed a good deal of technical material. Most of the information presented in this book is technical in nature. But technical information can be cumbersome and non-rententive if the reader cannot connect the dots. What I found extremely gratifying was the care and ability Ms. Orey took to connect these dots.

And in the event of a major quake or other disaster, you should be able to connect the dots before the Big Event.

I loved this book. Cal Orey did an excellent job explaining Jim's methods. I've already read it once, marking with a yellow felt pen the things I really wanted to remember. Now I'm rereading it putting key words in the margins so I can find things quickly. I especially loved the page that goes with each chapter called "Earthshaking Facts to Dog-ear." This book is a must read for anyone interested in quakes and quake predicting. Jim Berkland has come up with some interesting signs that that we all could be watching.

This book causes you to think about the possiblity of an earth quake
and how to handle it. Lots of good advise and information.

Man who predicts Earthquakes - Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist -biography
by Cal Orey, Sentient Pub '06 Review - micheal sunanda Oness press

This book is charming & dramatic in language, vast in scope, very personal & accurate in reporting. Jim keeps Equake records of his `Syzygy' coorelations being Sun, full & new moon cycles of Equake clusters happening after many cats & dogs run away from homes. That natural data been observed in China for decades, but not reported to US much. Cal explains the politics around Jim & controversy still rejected by most geology now. Jim is open, careful & lucid telling of Equakes recent & historical. Even wild animals act weird or run away before Equakes, as many folks in northern California know. But government people are too worried & afraid about money & reputation to allow such a radical rebel to work for them predicting Equakes, makes'em look dumb, even if it saves damage & lives to know ahead & prepare.
I been hearing Jim on Coast to Coast am radio interview for 5 years now, So here I get to learn the details of his radical lifework around earthquake predictions. He has more honest integrity of any geologist I've ever heard or read. His observing & reporting natures cycles really inspired me to study earth science more about all earth changes causes & effects. Even him getting fired by his agency for publishing earthquake predictions is typical as it is absurd. But he continued his career research in patterns around earthquake wherever they happen & especially the precursors, not causes, but the signs of it coming soon. His Syzygy is 80-85% accurate predicting earthquakes. Jim's been tracking solunar cycles, ocean tides & animal behaviors & more coorelations to earthquake precursors
We read of other Equake predictors, sensitives to pre-quake rumbles, prophetic dreams & ESP. I've talked with 2 Equake sensitives who feel pre-quake vibrations as aches, pains & stress in their bodies, they've mapped according to body parts & earth regions. Cal probes the depths of the field. I like her referring to Rupert Sheldrake's work on morphic resonance & ESP of animals sensing invisible & farway things. If you want a deeper read on earth-quake dimensions this is it. Reading her is fun & profound at once, to realized how we're all connected with Mother earth. But animals seem more & sensitive & instinctual than most humans are. So we can learn about patterns with them, Like `where'd they go? Why running away? Is quake coming? When? Some causes of Equakes are still a mystery.