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Managing Strategic Surprise: Lessons from Risk Management and Risk Assessment

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The principal theme of this book is that risk management must be integral to any national security strategy. To explore this theme the editors of the book have compiled a series of essays by various subject matter experts to explore risk management and its corollary warning intelligence as they affect national security. Like all compilations some essays are better than others.

The lead essays on "How to Build a Warning System" and "Intelligence Management as Risk Management" are also the weakest of the lot. In both a basic misunderstanding of intelligence processes and capabilities is apparent. Remarkably both also manage to misread the conclusions of Roberta Wohstetter in her book, "Pearl Harbor: warning and decision" which although it does emphasize the failure of intelligence on that occasion, it also makes it clear that the failure as a part of a wider breakdown of the U.S. national defense system. In both essays one is left with conclusion that both authors (Bracken and Arad) have not done their homework.

There are also two essays in this book that are absolutely first rate and well worth the price of admission. "Managing Energy Security Risks" by Van Der Linde does a masterful job explaining the complex issues of energy and national security in a global economy. And "Political Stability Frameworks and Country Risks" does an outstanding job of explaining the risks and opportunities of globalization for national security.

The editors of this book are to be commended for raising the important issue of risk management in the formulation of national security policy. Even if not perfect the book lays a firm foundation for further studies on this important issue.