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MegaCrunch!: Ten Survival Strategies for 21st Century Challenges

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Joe Pelton has spent three decades writing books -- and very good and intriguing books at that! He has written yet another one that blends his profound intellect and ability to connect readers with readable and engaging language. I have been familiar with Dr. Pelton's works since Global Talk, written in the 1980's and nominated for a Pulitzer Prize. Drawing upon his vast and professional reservoir of engaging work with Intelsat and the emerging world of `telecommunications', Dr. Pelton predicted a future that would create `smart buildings', wireless communication, and a broad band urban system as a result of advanced satellite technology. Pelton described a future world as a Global Village, and that even the most remote sections of the world would be connected to sophisticated communications technology. And it would not be that expensive because `in the future' it would be accessible and affordable and taken for granted. So much for spot on predictions!

In his latest book, Megacrunch: Ten Survival Strategies for 21st Century Challenges, Pelton once again talks about the Global Village, and in the short time since Global Talk, it is more fragile than ever before. At the pace the world's population is growing, if left unchecked the world could reach 12 billion by 2100. To put this in perspective, in the year 1 AD (or CE, common era) the world stood at 200 million. By year 1000, 275 million. In 1800, 800 million; 1900, 1.6 billion. And by 2000, 6 billion. Can the world sustain such rapid growth? The same super technology that Pelton praised in Global Talk that eventually brought so much good can also produce super automation production systems that will eliminate jobs. The ozone layer will become further deteriorated. Unlike a job loss, an eroding ozone layer is hard to detect on a daily and personal basis. What will it take for people to become alarmed? It is possible that future wars will be over water rights, since water supplies are also eroding, and that is more visible. And continuing overconsumption by a few nations will be out of balance with too little left for the remaining nations, many of which are desperately poor and undeveloped. Pelton has a number of other predictions, and considering the accuracy of his predictions in Global Talk, we should pay attention. One of his suggestions strikes me as a bit of `big brother': perhaps -- like in Singapore -- people who have too many children should be taxed for this and those who have none receive a financial incentive. This is not likely to gain the support of a world of religious and cultural diversity that see the survival of their own race, ethnicity or religion in the future of their children. But his support for population control is completely in line with the voice of others who have tried for decades to say that unchecked population growth cannot be sustained on an earth under assault from many fronts. Pelton argues that we must drop our national and cultural myopic beliefs and practices and work together. We must recognize that education, health care, the environment and world economy are not separate entities that can survive on their own. As for sustainability, there is not a non profit, when seeking funding support, that is not asked the question by donors: over time, how will you sustain your own efforts? The same is true for private business. Initial loans from venture capitalists or the banks must be repaid in some fashion and the risk is only taken by a sound marketing and business plan that projects sustainability. Why is this principle lacking for the future of our very existence?

Pelton remains an optimist and cheerleader in people's ability to make the "positive...[and] creative...mind blowing change" to confront these challenges, and that much will come from new leadership not afraid to also confront business as usual, which also means entitlement of consumption. New leadership will come from young people, but also older people living longer and with the living memory and experience to carry the torch of making sustainability, not unchecked growth, sound and practical economic sense. This book is a good read. It belongs in the classroom as a textbook used in a variety of courses where students are discussing these issues: economics, history, world politics, anthropology and global health. I am certainly taking this book into my classroom.

I read Dr. Pelton's new book "Megacrunch" with anticipation because I am familiar with his previous works, "Future Talk" and "Global Talk." Dr. Pelton has keen insight to many of the current problems facing the future of the human race. Will we implode, as we seem to be, as we reach a tipping point where the damage we are causing to our planet will be irreversible? The most interesting aspect of this book for me was the description of super automation and its impact on unemployment and the global economy. The authors point out that as technology automates more and more functions that people used to do, it takes longer and longer to recover from economic downturns. It is also pointed out that as we move to a super automated society, the education level for "base level" jobs increases. Given the current trends of our education system the authors make a good case that the US will lose its super power status.

Overall I liked this book a lot and feel that it discusses many current problems from a thoughtful viewpoint. The book is well written and organized. I found it an interesting read. The authors discuss how we need to change our (and the world's) economy to better fit the current trends. I agree that we must embrace green technology and build a world economy based on renewable energy and a sustainable lifestyle that fits with the resources of our planet. The authors point out the major flaw of those arguing for continued unbounded economic and population growth - if the future world is toxic and resource-starved, having wealth will not enable quality of life.