Megatrends 2000 (Mass Market Paperback)

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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

In this sequel to their 1982 bestseller, Megatrends , Naisbitt and Aburdene use solid and startling statistics to identify 10 dominant socio-economic trends for the 1990s. Among these, they foresee a booming global economy, with the "Pacific Rim" of Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai, Taipei, Hong Kong and Singapore rivaling a single-market "Europe 1992." Socialized industry and government welfare services will be largely replaced, they argue, by private enterprise. Meanwhile, women worldwide will achieve parity with men as leaders in the professions. The authors also predict a strong resurgence in the arts, national/ethnic culture, and religion, as the millennium nears. They envision as well epic developments and dangers in biochemical science--test-tube chickens, clones of endangered species, killer-disease vaccines. The authors' figures frequently upset conventional wisdom--more U.S. goods ($37.7 billion) were sold to Japan in 1988, they maintain, than to Germany, France and Italy combined. Major ad/promo; BOMC alternate; author tour .
Copyright 1989 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From School Library Journal

YA-- A bonanza of well-documented information and statistics on the ten major influences affecting the global picture for the 1990s. As they did in Megatrends (Warner, 1982) , Naisbitt and Aburdeen, the world's leading trend forecasters, offer their prophecies for the new decade. They explain the domination by the Pacific rim countries as inevitable, not as the dreaded takeover of our country that is often depicted in the media. Individuals, especially women, will profit from the leadership opportunities that will become available to them. A booming global economy, a renaissance in the arts, a religious revival, free-market socialism, and dramatic biological discoveries are among the predictions. A thought-provoking resource for history, government, and debate students. --Anne Paget, Episcopal High School, Bellaire, TX 2
Copyright 1990 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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Product Details

• Mass Market Paperback: 384 pages
• Publisher: Avon (February 1, 1991)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0380704374
• ISBN-13: 978-0380704378
• Product Dimensions: 6.7 x 4.1 x 1.5 inches
• Shipping Weight: 8 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 2.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (15 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #809,333 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

18 of 19 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars A 1990-Based Forecast of the Decade Just Past, December 6, 2000

By	Professor Donald Mitchell "Jesus Makes Me a P... (Boston) - See all my reviews (TOP 10 REVIEWER)

This book is the 1990 update to the blockbluster, Megatrends, by John Naisbitt from 1982. The date in the title of this book is a reference to the end point of the forecast period.

I had first read the book near the time when it came out. I decided to reread it now because I was interested in examining how accurate the forecasts turned out, and then to study how the correct forecasts had been developed. Content analysis has long been a Naisbitt forte, and I wanted to see another test of its strengths and potential weaknesses.

I was pleasantly surprised at how well the themes had held up. These include:

(1) a global economic boom prompted by the information economy, freer trade, and a government bias towards economic expansion over political ideology.

(2) a rapid growth in participation in the fine and finer arts.

(3) the emergence of free markets in socialist economies. Here the progress has even been more rapid than most would have expected.

(4) increasing similarities in global lifestyles with increased cultural nationalism.

(5) privatization of the welfare state in the western democracies.

(6) economic and cultural influence of Pacific Rim countries and California greatly expand.

(7) women become much more important in leadership roles.

(8) biotechnology makes great progress and raises major ethical issues, while biology becomes a more common metaphor.

(9) religious revival led by fundamentalism and the desire for deep, personal experience.

(10) triumph of the individual in becoming free of institutional constraints to become more in charge of one's own destiny. "The new responsibility of society is to reward the initiatives of the individual."

The conclusion talks about the importance of overcoming the scourges of disease (such as AIDS) and global poverty.

As a result, I would have to give this book five stars for forecasting . . . realizing how chancy that business is by nature.

On the other hand, I found the book to be long and tedious to read. I gave it three stars for the quality and clarity of explanation of the key points. In many cases, examples drone on and on, but relatively few points were made or supported directly. Perhaps it is just my perspective, but the chapter on women in leadership seemed particularly weak from this point of view.

Equally of interest were the things that were not forecast: that communism would fall except in a revised form in China and Cuba; that the United States would become a more dominant economic and political power; that Japan would have a terrible decade; and that government power in the world would be curtailed at such a rapid rate. But few got these factors right, and they used different methods from Naisbitt and Aburdene. I suspect that is because content analysis should be slow to pick up on these kinds of changes, but power analysis works well as demonstrated by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Moog in their excellent books using this method.

Where will we be in 2010? A continuation of these trends is likely, but what will be the new ones? You'll have to think about that for yourself.

After you have finished enjoying this book and thinking about what it means for your future, I suggest that you consider how you can expand your own individual potential. As the Army likes to say, "Be all that you can be."

Use the irresistible trends to your advantage for breakthrough gains!

7 of 8 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Hindsight is better than foresight, unfortunately, July 27, 1999

By	Leslie Ewing (Indiana) - See all my reviews

In contrast to the first Megatrends book that came out in 1984, this book is way off the mark. His economic analysis is always interesting, but this time, for the most part, his trends have not panned out. I found this book to be a much slower read than the first Megatrends. Even so, I still plan to look for Megatrends 2010 when it comes out.

6 of 7 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Sequels are almost always disappointing, February 7, 2000

By A Customer

Having been so impressed with the original "Megatrends," I was very much looking forward to this edition. Unfortunately,the authors' crystal ball failed too often this time around to inspire much confidence. One major flaw, I think, is that there is much less content analysis used in tracking these trends and far too much fluff in the way of interviews and anecdotes. Too, in "Megatrends," statistics were used to back up forecasts derived from content analysis. Here statistics and surveys seem to be the sole basis for the forecasts. Perhaps the authors' thought the original work was too dry, or perhaps they were just trying to capitalize on a winner with a quick and dirty follow-up. In any case, this book was not nearly as insightful, or useful