Customer Reviews

Megatrends Asia

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In Megatrends Asia, Naisbitt does an excellent job in presenting the next eight major shifts taking place in Asia. His use of precise examples and interviews clarifies the points he is trying to express. For example, he sites specific countries and their new infrastructure projects. He presents specific statistics, like with Asian credit and the number of credit cards being issued. Acer Group is mentioned as an example of the rise in Asian brand names.

However, I do not believe Naisbitt give adequate defense to the negative issues surrounding these shifts and their impact on the region. He briefly mentions pollution, environment, human rights, but he does not put much emphasis on them. Overall, I think Naisbitt presented a positive and fairly accurate prediction of the future. But he (we) should not ignore the inevitable negatives surrounding these shift in Asia.END

Naisbitt has done it again, this time turning his attention to Asia. His earlier book, Megatrends, attempts to set the agenda for international business in the next century. Now he aspires to do the same thing for Asia-watchers, or claim to be so. Not a critical enough piece of work though, and Naisbitt, despite his many interesting observations of the 'megatrends' influencing Asia in the so-called pacific Century, still fails to convince why Asia will lead the world economy and why it's so important to understand this continent.

This is a book that endeavours to predict the future and like all works of the genre it must stand or fall by the quality of its predictions. Naisbitt is recognized as one of the world's top political and economic forecasters, with a number of best selling 'futurology' books to his name. The problem with this particular book is not that the predictions are inaccurate, but rather that most of them are either common sense or are already taking place.

The book is divided into eight chapters, each describing one of the, "Asian megatrends that are reshaping the world." The last of these megatrends is simply "From West to East." Naisbitt says that, "Asia was once the centre of the world, and now the centre is returning to Asia." He even goes as far as to predict that, "we are moving towards the Asianization of the world."

Naisbitt makes use of an array of facts and figures to support each of the eight trends. Mostly this is done successfully, but occasionally the facts seem open to other, more intuitive interpretations, and the conclusions he draws sometimes appear strained. For example, he says, "demands in the Indian art market are so great that artists sell their works as fast as they are finished." The impression he is trying to create of a booming art market is clear, but do all Indian artists really sell all their work as soon as it is finished? Are their no unsold pieces to be found anywhere in the country? What are the prices of these highly desirable and much sought after works of art? Sometimes the way the arguments are presented raises more questions than it answers. Despite this the reader is left in little doubt that the overall evidence supporting each 'megatrend' is compelling, and the evidence has continued to mount since the publication of the book.

In his The Cynic's Word Book, Ambrose Bierce defines the future as, "that period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are true, and our happiness is assured." If Naisbitt's vision of the future is correct then Asia's affairs will prosperous, its friends will be true, and its happiness will indeed be assured.

This book is frighteningly like the accolades written in the thirties in support of Fascism. Newspeak prevails. The "eight pillars" are no more than a series of propaganda slogans endorsed by the People's Ministry of Truth.

As one example, the Naisbitts hold up something called "vertical democracy" as a new, improved, Asian alternative to the "Western" model. Vertical democracy, however, is never defined. instead it appears to be a management slogan that would be more familiar to an MBA than a corporate lawyer.
Even propaganda might be worth reading if the chapters each broke new ground. After the first few pages, however, the Naisbitts' theme becomes predictable. A western principle, e.g. free speech is raised as an arrogant shibboleth only to be toppled in the face of glorious examples of State Corporatism. For example, in the "pillar" devoted toward liberating the artists and intellectuals, a few anecdotes are given about how individuals have become wealthy selling their work in a global market while explaining that conformity to the State line is good for business. Suppression of a free press is written off as necessary to good order.

Chinese excesses such as cultural hegemony within its own borders, support for abusive governments in Korea, Burma, Africa or the mideast, are celebrated as examples of how stupid the west is not to understand the beneficient intent of the Chinese system. Classism, a rising issue in China, is not mentioned.

The claim to predict the future would be all too familiar t corporate flacks working for Microsoft, Sony, Phillips, Putin, or il Duce.

I read this book as my interest in Asia was beginning. Naisbitt's methodology of tracking trends is perhaps not entirely scientific, but it is more precise than much of what passes as future watching. Certainly we left the American century and are now entering the Asian one.

Naisbitt falls down in his timing. He is entirely bullish about regional opportunities. But what happened in 1997? The regional financial contagion brought down much of the good times in Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand and elsewhere. The Malaysian Multimedia SuperCorridor slowed. Other development regionally took a backseat as many western companies pulled out.

Fast forward to 2004 (perhaps a more appropriate timeframe for Mega trends) and the wisdom is becoming evident again. Shanghai and Bangalore are the world's boomtowns, and many other regional economies are taking off. Perhaps he wasn't so wrong after all...

One of the consistent themes in recent Western literature is a habit of comparing East Asian culture and society with those in the West, and specifically, to pick out those features of East Asian society that were unique and intrinsice to East Asia. Known as Orientalism, this genre had a condenscending undercurrent and brought forth images of coolies pulling rickshaws, corrupt officials smoking in opium dens, and Western sailors catching "yellow fever" in places like Bangkok and Singapore.

From the 1970s' onward, Orientalism has been replaced by growing praise of the economies of the East Asian countries, especially those with large Chinese populations such as Taiwan, Malaysia and China itself. Boasting the virtues of good education, disciplined populations, and strong family ties, Westerners have authored thousands of books on the growing power of the Orient. This book, Megatrends Asia, is just one in a long line of such works. The author uses empirical and statistical data to draw out 8 trends that are transforming the region into a world economic powerhouse. These trends are presented as primarily a shift from a rural, state-directed economy to a networked, consumer-driven, city-based economy. All this is true, but the author fails to fully explore several trends that though are not as positive and beneficial, are still as important in dictating the future of this region. Specifically, these trends are
1. The growing dependence on imported energy. Notice China's overtures to various West Asian countries due to oil and natural gas needs.
2. The spread of AIDS, heart disease, obesity, and other "lifestyle" illnesses.
3. The growth of military spending AND foreign military involvement in the various East Asian countries.
4. The growth in the black market of this region. Forget about the Hondas made in Japan or the seafood farmed in Thailand. What is really making dollars is all the illegal activity such as intellectual property infringement, the sex trade, the production and marketing of dirt cheap consumer goods sporting brand names from Europe's fashion centers...
5. The mass, and often forced, migration of whole communities to make way for factories, highways, and other features of an industrial economy.
6. The rise of militant Islam. Especially noticeable in Indonesia and Malaysia, but also present in Singapore, Phillipines and Thailand, this foreboding trend is making the orient the next battle ground in Bush's War on Terror.

Overall, this book is good, but not great. It correctly recognizes and explores major, region-wide changes, but ignores or minimizes several other major changes.

Naisbitt explores eight trends that made Asia an economic dynamo during the 80s & 90s. Written prior to the major crash in 1997, the book covers the positives of the go-Goh years. While it's easy to criticise in hindsight, the book fails to recognise some of the major failures of economies which are built so quickly. Like the buildings of many of the Asian cities the book discusses, they were built too quickly and are now crumbling.

Naisbitt does however highlight some interesting points. If one were to look at periods of economic growth (cf. China now) they are characterised by similar factors: integrated globalisation rather than nationalism; broadened options / greater choice; consumer-driven growth rather than low cost labour bases; market driven vs centrally planned; rural agro-economies to urbanisation; labour intensive to hi-tech; greater participation of women in the workplace. The 8th, however - "from west to east" - is far from an objective, intelligent look at Asian success. Sycophancy goes a long way in Asia - but objectivity is the basis of sound business books. There are many things in Asian culture which actively mitigate against Asia's ascendancy to its economic potential - it would have been more beneficial (not to mention professional) for the author to compare the Asian vs western approaches vis-à-vis long-term economic growth and prosperity.

The book is easy-to-read and has good Notes and Index sections. Obviously, ten years later, the book is severely out of date (I've lost count of the crises which have taken their toll on the region), so you'd probably be better of getting this from your nearest library and skimming through it.

this book was a major dissapointed for me, especially form someone with such a big reputation. On the basis of this , i shall NOT read his other material.it was quite obvious that mr. naisbitt had not researched the area properly and some of the very unique facts about asian busness culture. I sensed that his glossy rather superficial style would be the books undoing in the end and so i was right. since then , events in asia have proven him wrong, something i am not gloating about , but regret since this could have been avoided had naisbitt covered the subject with more depth. if you are looking for futurology boooks then , there are many better books than this - for a start try " the great reckoning " - james dale davidson and will. rees-mogg.