Can Mexico effectively avoid a crisis in the year 2000? What factors could cause one, and what is being done to prevent it? Since 1976 Mexico has experienced currency and economic crises at the end of every sexenio--Mexico's six-year presidential term--even though the transitions involved presidents of the same political party. The repetition is too serious to ignore. As President Ernesto Zedillo's final year in office approaches, many are wondering whether another crisis will occur. Zedillo himself promised there would be none, and much of Mexico's economic policy has focused on that objective. Author Jonathan Heath builds a "severity" index" to compare the intensities of past crises and catalog the factors causing each. He then examines whether Zedillo's policies are consistent with elminating those facots and, shoudl there be a crisis, what the probably causes would be. He concludes that even if Zedillo manages to escape the sexenio curse, this may be an except! ion and not an end to the "curse" itlsef until Mexico matures politically and strengthens its institutions.
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"Mexico's federal government has become expert at entering into and coming out of economic crises...and Heath offers an independent, brilliant, and profound assessment." -- Eduardo Sojo, economic adviser to PAN presidential candidate Vicente Fox
"The issue of Mexico's recurrent crises is covered in a very objective and complete fashion, as is the current government's strategy to avoid a crisis in the year 2000." -- Marco Provencio, Mexican Ministry of Finance (Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico
"This work has great value and brings to the front one of the most important problems faced by Mexico during the last two decades." -- Alejandro Valenzuela, formerly with the Central Bank of Mexico
Heath leads the reader from A to Z without interruption, with great clarity, and with arguments that are developed with ease." -- Luis Rubio, CIDAC - Centro de Investigacion para el Desarrollo, A.C.
"The issue of Mexico's recurrent crises is covered in a very objective and complete fashion, as is the current government's strategy to avoid a crisis in the year 2000." -- Marco Provencio, Mexican Ministry of Finance (Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico
"This work has great value and brings to the front one of the most important problems faced by Mexico during the last two decades." -- Alejandro Valenzuela, formerly with the Central Bank of Mexico
Heath leads the reader from A to Z without interruption, with great clarity, and with arguments that are developed with ease." -- Luis Rubio, CIDAC - Centro de Investigacion para el Desarrollo, A.C.
About the Author
Jonathan Heath is an independent economist who has focused on the Mexican economic outlook for 20 years. He is associated with Latin Source, a network of independent economic advisors, and writes regularly for the Mexico City newspaper Reforma. Born and raised in Mexico, Heath received his undergraduate degree in economics at Anahuac University in Mexico City. He then did graduate work at the University of Pennsylvannia. He began his professional career in Mexico's Ministry of Budget and Planning and later joined Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. Currently, he heads his own independent consulting firm and is an adjunct fellow at CSIS.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
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La Maldicion sexenal,
By A Customer
This review is from: Mexico and the Sexenio Curse: Presidential Successions and Economic Crises in Modern Mexico (CSIS Significant Issues Series) (Paperback)
En este libro se analizan los factores que han provocado en los ultimos años crisis recurrentes cada fin de sexenio. Es importante tomarlos en cuenta, aunque considero que con el fin del PRI, y con esto la erradicacion del presidencialismo y el trabajo que se ha hecho con el virtual presidente Vicente Fox para la transicion, muchos de estos factores han sido superados.
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