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Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making
 
 
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Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making [Hardcover]

Glenn Koller (Author)
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)

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Book Description

1584881674 978-1584881674 May 17, 2000 1
Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of applications.

Decision/option selection Manufacturing
Environmental assessment Pricing
Identification of business drivers Production sharing
Insurance Scheduling and optimization
Investing Security
Law

Emphasizing value as the focus of risk assessment, this book offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk model and what insights the model can provide. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic and direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems.

The author devotes a chapter to techniques for consistently collecting data in an inconsistent world and offers another chapter on how to reflect the effect of "soft" issues in the value of an opportunity. The book's final chapters delineate the techniques and technologies used to perform risk/uncertainty analyses, including sections on distribution, Monte Carlo process, dependence, sensitivity analysis, time series analysis, and chance of failure.

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 336 pages
  • Publisher: Chapman and Hall/CRC; 1 edition (May 17, 2000)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1584881674
  • ISBN-13: 978-1584881674
  • Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.4 x 1 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,995,803 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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4.0 out of 5 stars Excellent book, May 11, 2010
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This review is from: Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making (Hardcover)
Great text if you have the basic knowledge of decision tecnology. I suggest the another glen's book for an introduction and this one for a further reading.
Excellent book. Practical.
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Inside This Book (learn more)
First Sentence:
Classical solution of a decision tree involves beginning at the "end" leaf nodes and multiplying leaf-node values by branch probabilities. Read the first page
Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
peakedness value, trap definition failure, cumulative frequency plot, attic oil, cumulative frequency curve, associated chance, answer variable, sensitivity plot, fabrics plant, total chance, restart time, deterministic estimate, risk model, time series plot, undiscovered resources, contingency costs, failure variable, expansion distribution, reservoir size, most likely value, risk assessment model, regulatory delay, economic limit, delivery capacity
Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Monte Carlo, Expansion Fact, Potential Return
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