Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting (Themes in Modern Econometrics) [Paperback]

Philip Hans Franses (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0521586410 | ISBN-13: 978-0521586412 | Publication Date: November 28, 1998

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting is the most up-to-date and accessible guide to one of the fastest growing areas in business and economic analysis. The author is regarded as one of the most accomplished econometricians in Europe and this book is based on his highly successful lecture program for multidisciplinary, graduate and upper level undergraduate students. Early chapters of the book focus on the typical features of time series data in business and economics. Later chapters are concerned with the discussion of some important concepts in time series analysis, the techniques that can be readily applied in practice, different modeling methods and model structures, multivariate time, and the common aspects across time series.

Editorial Reviews

Review

'Franses reviews the more recent developments in modeling time series to focus on generating ex ante forecasts: seasonal unit roots, period models, aberrant observations, and common features. For each method, intuitive motivation and practical considerations are discussed in detail, making the book very readable ... should be beneficial for students and instructors of applications-oriented courses as well as for practitioners who wish to obtain a first, but not too technical, impression of time series forecasting using modern , recently developed methods.' Journal of the American Statistical Association

Book Description

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting by Philip Franses is the most up to-date and accessible guide to one of the fastest growing areas in business and economic analysis. Philip Franses is a rising star within econometrics teaching and research, and is widely regarded as one of the most accomplished young econometricians in Europe. This textbook is based around his highly successful lecture programme for multi-diciplinary, graduate and undergraduate students.

Product Details

• Paperback: 292 pages
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press (November 28, 1998)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0521586410
• ISBN-13: 978-0521586412
• Product Dimensions: 8.7 x 6 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 10.4 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (6 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,449,660 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

44 of 44 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent introductory book on economic time series modeling, April 10, 2000

By A Customer

This review is from: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting (Themes in Modern Econometrics) (Paperback)

Recently, I reread Franses book and expanded my review, which now includes 10 benefits.
(1) Organization by key features of economic time series (trends, seasonality, outliers, conditional heteroskedasticity, non-linearity), rather than by methods, which provides a practical foundation for the various methodologies. The order in which chapters are presented reflects the order of difficulty in modeling trends, seasonality, etc. Even if there were no other benefits, this organization makes it worthwhile.
(2) Appropriate level for first book on time series models as applied to economic time series, explaining more difficult concepts GARCH and VAR without excess detail. Box and Jenksins book is more a textbook; Brockwell and Davis is also more advanced; Hamilton is comprehensive and technical, but not as friendly. This book is very approachable even if you have had only 1 or 2 statistics courses. In economics, many people are interested in forecasting, and Franeses here is a good start. If you are looking for a more advanced forecasting book, try the recent books by Clements and Hendry from Cambridge U Press.
(3) Clear distinction of the steps of model identification, estimation, diagnostics, and selection; something which other time series analysis books do not seem to do early or easily. (4) Delineates stochastic and deterministic models in the second chapter, providing a framework for when to take differences (eg. ARMA vs ARIMA). His timing is excellent. Many people I have interviewed on time series do not understand why they need to difference (eg use prices instead of returns) or why to transform the series (eg use logs instead of actual values).
(5) Generous use of examples with real not simulated data with a website to download all the data, making it possible to import, graph, and analyze on your own.
(6) A website containing printing corrections. Techincal books are likely to have some errors, but very few keep websites to list what those are.
(7) Revealing graphics, especially for conditional heteroskedasticity, the 'CH' in GARCH. Figures 7.1-7.3 illustrate the concept that large returns tend to follow large returns very cleanly.
(8) His notation is clear and consistent, yet not overwhelming: conventional Greek letters, only 1 level of subscripting, matrix noation where appropriate; even the results are neatly presented, as standard errors appear in () below their point estimates. Finally, Franses uses the same notation from chapter to chapter where the term is the same--not so common when chapters written by different authors.
(9) Great appendices: extensive and updated references, a thorough subject index, and an author index. My only suggestion for improvement is that a second edition or the website should contain some exercises. Highly recommended.
(10) The price! There are books published under Wiley at 3 to 4 times the price! under Springer Verlag for 2 to 3 times the price. Certain books are worth the money, but Cambridge University Press paperback publications, when written well, are exeptional values. I encourage the ambitious time series student to look at other time series books, including one written this year by Franses including Quantitative Models in Market Research.

24 of 25 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars time series for business, February 8, 2008

By 

Michael R. Chernick "statman31147" (Holland PA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting (Themes in Modern Econometrics) (Paperback)

To make this review short, I will say that I agree with all seven points made by the reviewer from New York, NY, whomever he or she may be. Franses is clear, concise, authoritative and up-to-date on all the advances.
I particularly like the nice coverage of GARCH models that are new to me. It is a great introductory text especially for economics majors. For more advanced books and other treatments of time series consider Kennedy's fourth edition of "A Guide to Econometrics" or the suggestion from reviewer "New York, NY". Also my listmania list on time series will give you several sources to look at.

21 of 22 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars This book is exceptional, November 20, 1999

By A Customer

This review is from: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting (Themes in Modern Econometrics) (Hardcover)

The beauty of this text is it's clarity and the author's choice to stay away from didactic lectures on formal statistical mathematics. I would highly recommend this book for anyone who has an undergraduate background in mathematics, statistics or economics and wants a medium level text to show them how to model time series.