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Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle [Hardcover]

Friedrich A. Hayek (Author)
2.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)


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Book Description

June 1966 0678001766 978-0678001769 New issue of 1933 ed
Product Description
Published originally in 1929, Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle is the first essay Friedrich A. Hayek wrote. It serves as a primer into Hayeks monetary and capital theories. In it, he takes the time to dismember opposing monetary theories of the trade cycle, discarding faulty analysis and maintaining sound foundations, as to lead to his own monetary theory of the trade cycle. Hayeks trade cycle theory, is largely based on the headway made in capital theory by Wicksell and Böhm-Bawerk, and Ludwig von Mises spectacular insights on monetary theory (The Theory of Money and Credit), and was later further developed in Prices & Production, published in 1931. Any economist interested in knowing and explaining truth is required to read this book.

With interactive table of contents.


About the Author
F. A. Hayek (1899-1992), recipient of the Medal of Freedom in 1991 and co-winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1974, was a pioneer in monetary theory and a leading proponent of classical liberalism in the twentieth century. He taught at the University of London, the University of Chicago, and the University of Freiburg.
Hayek received new attention in the 1980s and 1990s with the rise of conservative governments in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. After winning the 1979 election, Margaret Thatcher appointed Keith Joseph, the director of the Hayekian Centre for Policy Studies, as her secretary of state for industry in an effort to redirect parliament's economic strategies. Likewise, David Stockman, Ronald Reagan's most influential financial official in 1981 was an acknowledged follower of Hayek.
--This text refers to the Kindle Edition edition.

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 244 pages
  • Publisher: Augustus M Kelley Pubs; New issue of 1933 ed edition (June 1966)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0678001766
  • ISBN-13: 978-0678001769
  • Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6 x 1 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 2.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #3,789,045 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

 

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2 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
2.0 out of 5 stars Interesting Diagnosis but Useless Prescriptions, September 2, 2010
By 
Rufus Burgess (San Francisco, CA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
This review is from: Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle (Hardcover)
Hayek's "Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle" is an interesting view into the need for monetary economics to be incorporated into business cycle theory. Barter, village-fair, economic models of pure economics cannot explain economic fluctuations due to Say's Law. Under real business cycle theories only external causes can create business cycles (ex: Governments). Written during the Great Depression Hayek was trying to create a monetary theory that could explain endogenous causes of disequilibrium in the price mechanism.

Hayek's work consists of primarily three parts. First, Hayek describes why real theories, which assume equilibrium, cannot explain business cycles. It is only with the introduction of money that business cycles can occur. While business cycles may not be initially caused by monetary factors it is essential that monetary factors are part of the chain of causality. Second, Hayek deducts that it is both the price level and the volume of money that is crucial to economic expansion and recession. He strongly disagrees with the quantity theory of money's assumption that a constant price level will lead to economic stability. Finally, Hayek concludes that business cycles are unavoidable. Due to the nature of the private banking sector monetary expansion and retraction are inevitable. Any attempt at "forced savings" would prevent a current recession but would cause a much greater depression in the near future. Deflation is inevitable and will eradicate malinvestment.

Hayek's economic theory is greatly lacking. At some times he hints on genius and on other times he completely misses the mark regarding monetary and business cycle theory. Hayek begins with a superb analysis of why barter economic models, created by marginalist economists, are flawed.

However, Hayek treatise is highly flawed from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. From a theoretical perspective his critique of the quantity theory of money is entirely incorrect. His focus on the volume of money is misguided. Hayek flatly refuses to believe changing the volume of money to stabilize output, even if the price level increases to correspond with such a change, will lead to a business cycle. According to mainstream economists money is neutral. A moderate increase in the volume of money will in the long-run result in an increase in the price level. By itself an increase in the volume of money has no impact on the economy. Both Keynesians and Monetarists would strongly disagree with Hayek's contention. No mention is made regarding the velocity of money (something Keynesians might agree with).

Additionally, Hayek's conception of "forced savings" is entirely incorrect. To create "forced savings" the government must continually print money at an accelerating rate to increase the level of savings over the long-run. This in turn will create malinvestment that will be unproductive and will, eventually, be destroyed due to deflation. However, "forced savings" cannot exist in the theoretical framework Hayek discusses (at least to be of any use). Under a potential output economy an increase in the money supply would only lead to inflation and therefore would not change the rate or composition of savings. "Forced savings" during an economy below potential would not increase investment or employment (See JMK's "General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money" CH7 s.IV for a more detailed explanation). "Forced savings" is both theoretically inconsistent and empirically wrong.

On the issue of empirical evidence Hayek's theory is utterly useless. The volume of money, and gross production, has exploded over the last 80 years without a resulting Depression. Two severe recessions have occurred but to validate Hayek's theory these recessions would have needed to be exponentially greater depressions to support his argument. Macroeconomic stabilization in the post-war era has largely worked.

Maybe key to Hayek's misunderstanding of econometrics, and science, is his belief, "Statistics can never prove or disprove a theoretical explanation, they can only present problems or offer fields for theoretical research."
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