The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming [Hardcover]

Robin M. Mills (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0313354790 | ISBN-13: 978-0313354793 | Publication Date: August 30, 2008

With oil around $100 a barrel, drivers wince whenever they pull into the gas station and businesses watch their bottom lines shrink. Watch out, say doomsayers, it will only get worse as oil dries up. It's a plausible argument, especially considering the rate at which countries like China and India are now sucking up oil. Even more troubling, the world's largest oil fields sit in geopolitical hotspots like Iran and Iraq. Some believe their nations need to secure remaining supplies using military force, while others consider dwindling supplies a blessing that will help solve the problem of global warming. But wait—is it really the end of oil? Absolutely not, says geologist, economist, and industry-insider Robin Mills.

There is no other book by an industry insider that effectively counters the peak oil theory by showing where and how oil will be found in the future. There also is no other book by an insider that lays out an environmentally and geopolitically responsible path for the petroleum industry and its customers. The Myth of the Oil Crisis, written in a lively style but with scientific rigor, is thus a uniquely useful resource for business leaders, policymakers, petroleum industry professionals, environmentalists, and anyone else who consumes oil. Best of all, it offers an abundance of one commodity now in short supply: hope for the future.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Geologist, economist, and petroleum industry insider Mills makes an intelligent case for oil's continuing role as a major, growing energy source. A Herculean task, one would think, given public sentiment on the matter. Mills manages it by first neatly dividing opposing viewpoints into five camps: geologists (those who espouse peak oil theory), economists (the markets will work it out), militarists (use power to secure energy supplies), environmentalists (fossil fuels: no), and no-Luddites (fossil fuels, consumption, and materialism: no). He then conquers their positions with lively, exhaustive sourced arguments to say that there may be more conventional oil than reported, colossal unconventional sources, and plentiful energy substitutes. Mills shows deep understanding of the complexity of the issue, and while promising no easy fixes, he is yet hopeful: gloomy predictions do not resemble the real world and take no account of human integrity."

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Library Journal, Starred Review

"A debate is currently raging among geologists and economists over whether global oil production has peaked. One school of thought, buttressed by mathematical models and some empirical evidence, argues that the peak production of conventional oil occurred sometime over the last two decades. Kenneth Deffeyes' treatise is the classic statement of this position, and Matthew Simmons' application of the argument to recent Saudi production has attracted much attention. Contrarians argue that the peak-oil theorists may be right -- eventually -- but that the relative lack of new oil discoveries owes far more to underinvestment and geopolitics than to geology. Technological breakthroughs in extracting hydrocarbon from shale and deep water, they note, may be pushing out the time when peak oil might hit. Robin Mills offers a solid version of the contrarian case."

Reviewed with:

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. By Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Princeton University Press, 2001.

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. By Matthew R. Simmons. John Wiley, 2005.

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Foreign Affairs

Review

"Robin Mills's The Myth of the Oil Crisis is an intellectual nail in the coffin of the peak oil lobby's claims for the end of oil. There is no such drama, as this in-depth analysis demonstrates with empirical lucidity, wide-ranging discourse, and persuasive argument to demolish these modern mythologies and proclaimed wisdoms about our world oil future."

(

Duncan Clarke, Author of Empires Of Oil and The Battle For Barrels

)

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 336 pages
• Publisher: Praeger (August 30, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0313354790
• ISBN-13: 978-0313354793
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.3 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 15.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (16 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #751,279 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

43 of 47 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars Straw Man, March 18, 2009

By 

AVO (Ft Collins, CO USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming (Hardcover)

The author of this book and his followers on this website have constructed a "straw man" out of the peak oil argument. In so doing, they have misrepresented the entire debate by essentially equating "peak oil" with "running out of oil." Peak oil refers to the point in time when the world reaches the maximum rate of oil production. This can happen even when a large amount of oil (both conventional and non-conventional) still remains in the ground.

For example, the peak of U.S. oil production occurred in the 1970s even though there were still large oil fields in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere in the U.S. that had not been produced or discovered. Likewise, world oil production can peak even though there is still a large amount of oil (and tar sands, oil shales, coal, natural gas, biofuels, etc) remaining. The danger is we may not be able to produce these remaining resources as rapidly or economically as conventional crude oil, in which case peak oil would occur. This, in turn, could lead to an end of economic growth as we have known it, as economic growth has always gone hand in hand with ever increasing energy consumption. I hope that does not happen. However, this book provides no comfort because it only deals with a distorted and simplistic version of the peak oil debate and fails to confront real issues.

29 of 35 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars It's the flow rate, stupid, May 29, 2009

By 

biologist - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming (Hardcover)

This books discusses in length how much oil there is left in the ground. Unfortunately, this is not very relevant. What matters is how fast we can get it out, and how much it costs. Just imagine you have a billion dollars in the bank, but your bank does not allow you to withdraw more than $1 per day. With oil, it is becoming more and more like that - the "resources" are vast, but the "bank" (nature/geology) allows only smaller and smaller withdrawals. And it takes more and more energy to get it out, because the stuff gets more and more viscuous. Used to be like water in the old days, now it's like honey. Have you ever tried to drink honey with a straw?

29 of 35 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Texas and North Sea to the Rescue, May 29, 2009

By 

Jeffrey J. Brown - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming (Hardcover)

Texas and the North Sea provide excellent examples of the kind of oil production results that private oil companies--using the best available technology, with virtually no restrictions on drilling--can achieve.

Since peaking in 1972, Texas oil production has declined at about -4%/year, and since peaking in 1999, the North Sea has declined at about -4.5%/year (EIA data, crude + condensate).

In 2005, Saudi Arabia was at about the same mathematical stage of depletion at which Texas, the prior swing producer, peaked, and Saudi Arabia has shown three straight years of production below their 2005 rate, despite the highest annual oil prices in history.

In 2005, world conventional crude production was at about the same stage of depletion at which the North Sea peaked in 1999, and the world has shown, with some benefit from unconventional production, basically flat production since 2005, although in reality the world has shown a cumulative shortfall between what we would have produced at the 2005 rate and what was actually produced--despite the highest annual oil prices in history.

This pattern of flat to declining production versus rising oil prices was what we also witnessed in the early stages of the Texas and North Sea production declines.

But the primary problem we face is a long term accelerating rate of decline in net oil exports. For more information on our (Brown & Foucher) work, do a Google Search for Jeffrey Brown + Net Oil Exports.