Customer Reviews

The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming

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The author of this book and his followers on this website have constructed a "straw man" out of the peak oil argument. In so doing, they have misrepresented the entire debate by essentially equating "peak oil" with "running out of oil." Peak oil refers to the point in time when the world reaches the maximum rate of oil production. This can happen even when a large amount of oil (both conventional and non-conventional) still remains in the ground.

For example, the peak of U.S. oil production occurred in the 1970s even though there were still large oil fields in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere in the U.S. that had not been produced or discovered. Likewise, world oil production can peak even though there is still a large amount of oil (and tar sands, oil shales, coal, natural gas, biofuels, etc) remaining. The danger is we may not be able to produce these remaining resources as rapidly or economically as conventional crude oil, in which case peak oil would occur. This, in turn, could lead to an end of economic growth as we have known it, as economic growth has always gone hand in hand with ever increasing energy consumption. I hope that does not happen. However, this book provides no comfort because it only deals with a distorted and simplistic version of the peak oil debate and fails to confront real issues.

This books discusses in length how much oil there is left in the ground. Unfortunately, this is not very relevant. What matters is how fast we can get it out, and how much it costs. Just imagine you have a billion dollars in the bank, but your bank does not allow you to withdraw more than $1 per day. With oil, it is becoming more and more like that - the "resources" are vast, but the "bank" (nature/geology) allows only smaller and smaller withdrawals. And it takes more and more energy to get it out, because the stuff gets more and more viscuous. Used to be like water in the old days, now it's like honey. Have you ever tried to drink honey with a straw?

Texas and the North Sea provide excellent examples of the kind of oil production results that private oil companies--using the best available technology, with virtually no restrictions on drilling--can achieve.

Since peaking in 1972, Texas oil production has declined at about -4%/year, and since peaking in 1999, the North Sea has declined at about -4.5%/year (EIA data, crude + condensate).

In 2005, Saudi Arabia was at about the same mathematical stage of depletion at which Texas, the prior swing producer, peaked, and Saudi Arabia has shown three straight years of production below their 2005 rate, despite the highest annual oil prices in history.

In 2005, world conventional crude production was at about the same stage of depletion at which the North Sea peaked in 1999, and the world has shown, with some benefit from unconventional production, basically flat production since 2005, although in reality the world has shown a cumulative shortfall between what we would have produced at the 2005 rate and what was actually produced--despite the highest annual oil prices in history.

This pattern of flat to declining production versus rising oil prices was what we also witnessed in the early stages of the Texas and North Sea production declines.

But the primary problem we face is a long term accelerating rate of decline in net oil exports. For more information on our (Brown & Foucher) work, do a Google Search for Jeffrey Brown + Net Oil Exports.

...then the world really is in trouble. In this book the author makes a pathetically weak case against an imminent peak in oil production. In order to build this edifice of straw, he uses all manner of untruths, half-truths and irrelevances that, though they may persuade the ill-informed and the hopelessly optimistic, do not begin to dent the very strong case Peak Oil proponents have made. Robin Mills rather reminds one of a slick defense attorney trying to create reasonable doubt in jurors' minds while defending someone whose guilt is patent. For instance, he claims horizontal drilling and other techniques, by increasing production in existing oil fields, will avert production decline in those fields. The fact is that, despite any number of technological advances in oil production, production in existing fields is declining at a rapid rate, around 4% yearly according to the rosiest estimates, but in reality much faster. What this means is that by 2030, the world will have to discover and develop the oil equivalent of four Saudi Arabias just to keep up current production, let alone allow for greater consumption in many parts of the world. As far as Robin Mills is concerned, however, that is not a problem because he prophesies a "breakthrough" in electrical car technology that will curtail demand for oil in any case. Those new electrical cars will then be powered by some unspecified source, whichever one "happens to be most convenient". Perhaps that will turn out to be wind from the beating of angels' wings.

In short, the author simply fails utterly in countering the hard facts and iron-clad numbers that make Peak Oil a mathematical certainty. Peak Oil could have been greatly mitigated, especially, if an earnest effort, a Manhattan Project of alternative energy, if you will, had begun a couple of decades ago. Maybe, if such a project were started today, it might still do some good. What is certain, however, is that Peak Oil cannot be wished away or buried under the mountain of b.s. that this book is.

The Myth of the Oil Crisis has most of the strengths and weaknesses other reviewers here point out - both those who like and those who dislike it. Readers who are pros in the energy business will find Mills' book rehashes industry knowledge, but many Americans need this big step up from the "information" they get from Greenpeace and Fox News.

Peak Oil does not mean an immediate crisis End of Oil. Read this book and learn the current details about where more oil remains. There is in fact plenty of oil in the ground. We know where to find more than we ever knew about before. What should you expect at the peak?

We won't really know if this is the peak until we confirm that net discoveries are declining for years. Yes the situation in Saudi Arabia is disturbing, but there might be plenty of easy new oil in Iran ...well that's alarming, too, but for other reasons. As Mills puts it, today we say all the easy oil is gone, so we have to drill near the arctic circle or in deep water. Tomorrow they'll say all the easy oil is gone, so we have to drill under the Antarctic Ice Cap.

As supplies decline, prices will support more thorough exploration and advanced recovery techniques. Higher prices enable new technologies. Sheik Yamani pointed out the obvious - the Stone Age didn't end because people ran out of stones, and the Oil Age won't end because people run out of oil.

Mills also ignores an interesting question. Most oil moves in tankers, financed by bills of lading. A bill of lading is a paper that says a bank paid the shipper for the oil and will collect later from the refiner when it's delivered. No matter how many countries control oil in the ground, only a handful of bulge bracket banks control oil on the high seas. And they trade it for their own account. Morgan Stanley owns more oil than Exxon. They trade with Goldman Sachs, and Citibank, which Sheik Alwaleed rescued from the brink of bankruptcy. Might this market have anything to do with price volatility?

There are always more disasters and conspiracies lurking for worrisome people with a creative impulse. The Myth of the Oil Crisis will give you enough rope to make your own ideas seem convincing. But if you REALLY know, you can play against Goldman and Morgan Stanley and beat them at their own game. Good luck.

Despite its somewhat lurid title the book comes along as a well-researched analysis of the prospects of future oil availability. Mills' analysis is unorthodox in being somewhat optimistic what concerns the availability of oil and gas - without neglecting environmental concerns and without ignoring alternative viewpoints (though these gain less space).

In my view, the book is particularely recommendable because of two reasons:

1) Mills is both a geologist with considerable industry experience and an economist. As opposed to many single-sided authors who take one of the two distinct perspectives, Mills is able to "illuminate" the issue from two angles.

2) Assertions in the book are backed by sources - more then 700 altogether. Supporters of Hubbert's peak oil theory and opponents alike can benefit from the data gathered by Mills. While preparing my PhD in the oil industry, I was missing a book like this.

Sure, the "Myth" is not a book to read from the first to the last page. For instance, not all of the 23 most important oil countries (which are discussed one by one) may be of interest to every reader. On the other hand Mills elaboration of opposing viewpoints (geologists, economists, militarists, environmentalists, neo-luddites) or his analysis of unconventional oil supply (oil sands, heavy oil, also biofuels etc.) may be valuable chapters for reference - also for readers that may not agree with all his conclusions.

Countless books, web sites, podcasts, articles and more exist that promote the imminence of peak oil. If nothing else, I highly recommend this book if you want to get the "other side."

As is obvious from the title, Mills does not believe that peak oil will be coming anytime soon. It's not that he doesn't think it will ever happen; rather, he believes that it is a long way off and that we will have developed other energy sources well before peak oil becomes a major issue.

I found Mills' presentation and discussion of the opposing viewpoints outstanding. Often, books never even touch on opposing viewpoints. Mills' entire book revolves around a discussion of opposing viewpoints. He discusses not only why he believes the opposing viewpoint is wrong, but also presents his own beliefs.

Mills presents an unbelievable amount of supporting data. For the casual reader, the level of detail and support may be too much. For example, in chapter 5, he goes through 31 different countries or regions and breaks down the oil situation for each area, footnoting his data all the way along. For someone not directly involved in the oil industry, this information may be a bit much, but I can't fault him for including it as others may appreciate the level of detail. The contrast is striking compared with other information that I've read from proponents of peak oil that presented almost no supporting data.

However, Mills is not always fair. At one point relatively early in the book, he basically says that peak oil is discredited because prior predictions have proven to be false. He goes so far as to compare proponents of peak oil to prophets of the end of the world, which is unreasonable. Another time, he overstates his case and says that while oil "prices have risen sharply ... at least until 2008, the global economy sailed on almost untroubled. This points out the fallacy of claims by peak oil theorists and Neo-Luddites of the inevitability of economic collapse." I am not convinced that the claims are false just because the economy was in a good state up to 2008. The year 2008 was not exactly a joyride and peak oil theorists will tell you that it will get much worse. My point is that just because it has not happened yet is not proof that it won't happen in the future.

Mills did a convincing job discrediting Hubbert's Peak and explaining how we have enough alternative forms of energy, and the time and resources to deploy them, to avoid the economic meltdown proposed by some. In the end I came away feeling like the doom and gloom that I've read from some peak oil authors is overdone. It's difficult for someone not deeply involved in the industry to really know what's right, however, and I suspect that reality lies between Mill's position and the peak oiler's position.

One note: Some of the charts are hard to read in the kindle version. If I were buying this book again I'd buy the hardcopy version.

This is a well-written, concise and persuasive book that gives peak-oil alarmists a run for their money. As a recovering peak oil alarmist myself, I found it immensely comforting to read Mills' well-developed argument against the peak oil theory, and although I'm not completely convinced he's right, I come away with a good deal more faith that even if oil supplies peak in coming years, our civilization can survive.

Mills has excellent credentials, uses statistics well and includes helpful charts to illustrate his points. Unlike some who have written books to debunk peak oil, I don't get the feeling Mills has an ideaological agenda. He doesn't worship fossil fuels, and acknowledges their pitfalls (global warming). But unlike peak oil theorists, he has faith that humanity can overcome the technological hurdles that we need to in order to make best use of the vast energy resources we have. I'll place myself with Mills on the side of the optimists.

The purpose of this book is to uncover whether or not the current hypotheses on if the world's reserves of oil are accurate - are we at or close to Peak Oil. On this topic Mills gives a very insightful look at why we, the public, think that reserves are running down, when in fact, what we are seeing are accounting functions and executive and economic decisions resulting in what looks to be reserve declines. His theories and documentation show with his extrapolations, that the world reserves are in very good shape. That pricing and exploration and reporting of reserves have nothing to do with the actual state of the facts. Mills makes some excellent points and has tremendous bibliographic references to back him up. His experiences and knowledge put him in a position where we should at least listen to him.

There are various different types of oils, gases and liquid hydrocarbons and Mills gives a run down on how the progression can be made from light oils to heavy oils and then he builds in the bio-fuels and nuclear and everything else. His conclusion is that we have plenty of oil and gas and that the time it will take to move from one type of fossil fuel to the next is enough for the transition to take place. Additionally, he reviews the new technologies for capturing CO2 and actually using it to extract oil, thereby keeping the CO2 in the ground.

The importance of this book shows that the world is not in fact running out of reserves. The oil industry can and does find more reserves every year than are produced. This is important because it will allow the world to come to grips with the economic and environmental decisions that need to be made with plenty of time to make them. Additionally, Mills shows that war for oil is not necessary, and that it never has been cost effective, whereas a policy of trading for oil with many countries involved actually has been beneficial to all concerned. The wrench in the machinery becomes the environmental and political pressures that will affect this situation and that these pressures will also affect the price and exploration practices.

When Robin Mills sticks with the subject of oil, he is very convincing. However, he does dip into general world wide economics at times and shows his inexperience and at times over simplifies. This is especially noticeable in Chapter 3 when Mills attempts to describe why the massive increases in gasoline prices had failed to "shock" the U.S. economy. If only he could have waited a couple of months to see what that shock started. While he might be correct in that the world was able to hold off for a while, the continued $4+ gasoline eventually had quite an effect on our economy as all of that money was sucked out of the country's economy. And now we know how it contributed to the current economic crisis.

Viewing the world's oil production with a wider angle lens Mills opens the reader's eyes to seeing the various booms and busts and how they are somewhat inevitable. Investments are so large (especially "excess supply" costs) and with risk very high and reward, although high, so far down the time line, it is nearly impossible to see a world without price fluctuations. But likewise, he is very convincing about the elasticity of oil pricing. This very interesting because most economists did not believe that demand moves much with price in a small period of time. And the effects of this last round of price increases have clearly shown the elasticity of oil pricing. It does take a lot to move the behavior, but at a given point, that will occur.

Taking the facts as written by Mill, and watching the current energy price run-up, it bothers me that without new capacity to handle heavier oils and the increased demand, refining capacity is lacking in the U.S. due to environmental groups that believe that they can influence the situation. But like most "non market" decisions, it will eventually be unsustainable. It is actually the refining capacity that is keeping light oil as the oil of choice, thereby keeping the world in the hands of a few producers. If the refining capacity and new technologies could be employed, then heavier oils could be refined and then the stranglehold on the world by a few could be released. So again, the non market decisions always have the opposite effect intended.

This is an excellent primer on the subject and I recommend it to anyone with an open mind on this issue that wants to learn facts and not ideology.

I confess, I'm a recovered peak oiler. I discovered the peakers in 2002 and was rapidly drawn into their apocalyptic world of gloom and disaster. Soon after indoctrination, I felt the euphoric rush that comes with being part of a group that has access to "secret" information all the other morons out there are blissfully ignorant of. Like most peakers, I enjoyed giving self-righteous lectures about the collapse of modern society to my SUV-driving friends. Eventually though, the inflexible peak oil religious doctrine started to bother me. Like other doomsayers, they appeared to cherry pick any data that supported their cause, while completely ignoring any information that suggested otherwise. New oil and gas discoveries were decried as "meaningless". Any new production technology was bashed with the opinion "it'll never work". Reserves estimates were part of "an international government and industry conspiracy". Those who publicly disagreed with their views, I observed, where ridiculed and dismissed as intellectual midgets and "flat earthers". After a while, all that zealotry and hypocrisy got to me, and I vowed to read every scrap of information I could find on energy, not just what was first sanctioned by the high priests of the peak oil church. It took me a while, but I kept an open mind, educated myself, and at last broke free of the cult. The Myth of the Oil Crisis does a very nice job in summarizing the holes in the peakers'dogma - If it had been available a few years ago, my de-programming would have taken place much sooner. If your hopes for the future are being held hostage by worries about running out of oil, I suggest that you start your detox program with this book. Give it a try. You just might change your mind about buying that assault rifle and cabin in the Idaho mountains.