The world in 2050 will be radically different from today. Northern countries - notably Canada, Russia and Scandinavia - will rise at the expense of southern ones. Places like New Zealand, Argentina and interior Brazil will also be winners. Patterns of human migration will be dramatically altered - and where we are born will be crucial. "The New North" explores the 'four locomotives' that are changing the world - climate change, rising population, globalisation and resource depletion - and attempts to predict how they will shape the world between now and 2050. It is a book about people, and the 'push' and 'pull' factors that determine where and how they live. In particular, it examines the countries of the far north - Scandinavia, Canada, Greenland, etc - which stand to gain from the changes underway. The book is not a doomsday script. All of human history is a story of adaptation and change, in response to our environment and to each other. Despite our booming numbers we are healthier, safer, better fed, more knowledgeable, and less violent than ever before. The population boom is slowing, our prosperity generally rising. And as our coastlines inundate and the deserts encroach, there will be new homelands for us throughout the high latitudes and high altitudes, places currently marginal for human existence. Who will benefit? Who will suffer? Current migration trends - to Florida and the drought-stricken American southwest, towards vulnerable low-lying coasts, into Asian megacities atop subsiding deltas - will go into reverse. Instead, we will turn north, where the tragic loss of unique ecosystems will be countered by rising biological production, stable water supplies, warmer winters, rising food stocks, and new shipping access throughout the region. These physical benefits intertwine crucially with human ones, like abundant cheap land, stable governance and legal systems, new oil discoveries, the end of indigenous land-claims, and rising global markets for energy, raw materials, and food.
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Book Description
Editorial Reviews
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"'A charismatic rising star vividly relates the big challenges facing the world' - Jared Diamond"
About the Author
Laurence C. Smith is professor and vice-chairman of geography and professor of earth and space sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles. He has published more than fifty research papers, in journals such as Science and Nature and in 2006 he briefed Congress on the likely impacts of northern climate change.His work has been covered in the LA Times, National Geographic, Boston Globe, Washington Post, Time Magazine and NPR among others.
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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
Professor of geography Laurence C. Smith makes a fine oracle. His ambitious, candid and accessible book predicts what the world will be like in 2050. He's well-poised to make climate predictions, since he combines academic training with firsthand observations in the far north. He translates dense academic data into common language and - perhaps most importantly for a hotly debated topic like climate change - he's clear on what science knows and what it doesn't know. Smith optimistically voices the hope that humanity can correct its current course, but he doesn't give many specific suggestions for what the reader might do to slow the pending upheaval. His study and projections range from shifts in agriculture to the likelihood of armed conflict and new national boundaries. getAbstract recommends Smith's forecast about the impact of the great thaw to those interested in science and the results of global warming, and to those planning ahead for changes in worldwide resources and markets.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
I first ran across the work of Laurence Smith in late 2007 when he did a short piece on edge.org that does not seem to be there anymore. It nevertheless acquired my attention in such a way that I got in touch with Dr. Smith and periodically checked on the progress of the book until it came out. It has been a while since I got such value for my book buying buck. This is a worthy addition to the literature on a problem of truly global proportions.
About the only folks that might want to avoid this book would be "climate change skeptics" that hold that position for ideological rather than rational reasons. Not that it would change their positions, but it would surely make their positions less comfortable. Anyone else convinced that climate change is real and happening or even with an open mind will find it fascinating reading.
Bravo, Dr. Smith, I can't wait to see what you do next.
About the only folks that might want to avoid this book would be "climate change skeptics" that hold that position for ideological rather than rational reasons. Not that it would change their positions, but it would surely make their positions less comfortable. Anyone else convinced that climate change is real and happening or even with an open mind will find it fascinating reading.
Bravo, Dr. Smith, I can't wait to see what you do next.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This book is a timely reminder of the changes taking place in the Arctic, and the possible impacts. One would expect the book to be either pro or con global warming but that is certainly not the case. The author has great respect for scientific methods and is not trying to convince the reader of A TRUTH.
The four forces that the book focuses on are explained in a very understandable way. This is a book for anyone, not just experts, and reads like a novel to those interested in the Arctic.
This book is a must for those who want to have some idea what the future will hold, if current trends continue.
The four forces that the book focuses on are explained in a very understandable way. This is a book for anyone, not just experts, and reads like a novel to those interested in the Arctic.
This book is a must for those who want to have some idea what the future will hold, if current trends continue.
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