Customer Reviews

The New Renaissance: Computers and the Next Level of Civilization

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As a nonscientist who is deeply interested in how computers will advance our ability to lead productive, meaningful, and rewarding lives, I found this book to be very provocative and helpful. Instead of looking only at business or computer science, the author extends in many different directions to consider how computers could change the potential, fabric, and value of our lives. Not being knowledgeable in some of the fields, I found it helpful to have a tour guide who could explain what remains to be done in terms of problem solving and creating better mouse traps. While no one person can be expected to anticipate such an exciting and unpredictable future very well, the author does a great job of referring to many of my favorite works on how computer technology can transform the way we do things like education, entertainment, and so forth. Anyone who has ever enjoyed reading science fiction to help imagine what could come in the future will find this book rewarding. I found the work solid except with regard to population growth, where the author failed to put two and two together. The rise of education and income has a very depressing effect on the birth rate, so much so that demographers argue that the economically developed countries should have declining populations by the middle of next century. Eventually, this trend will spread more broadly to the rest of the world, and should be complete before the end of the next century. But I leave that for you to consider. I strongly urge you to read and enjoy this outstanding book. The excerpt that you can access by clicking on the excerpt button above on the left of this page on Amazon.com is well worth your time, and you will want to read the whole book after you have looked at that chapter. I thought that this exerpted chapter was the best multidisciplinary description of the implications of computers compared to past information explosions that I have seen. One of the strengths of this book is that it points to the untapped potential of computers rather than just focusing on what the best practices of the past have been. The woods are full of the later, and they are dated by the time they are published -- especially most of the Internet books. You have a real treat in front of you, which should inspire you to make more practical use of computers to advance what you care about.

To live at the beginning of a new era is exciting; to do so and understand what is happening is a rare privilege. Douglas Robertson offers to share this privilege with us by presenting his vision of a world transformed by computers in the not-too-distant future. It is an upbeat peek at the future, devoid of the gloomy forecasts of some "future shock" science fiction adventures. As with all penetrating portrayals of the future, The New Renaissance is provocative and draws controversial conclusions. I often found myself arguing with the book -- and not always winning, as I read the elaboration of one of the book's more surprising assertions. For example, I could accept "synthespians" figuring importantly in future entertainment (p 157), but I could not believe they would be an acceptable replacement for athletes. Yet, what if the real competition were at a different level, and the synthespian athletes were used to provide visualization?

The author brings to this work the unusual combination of scientist-technologist and historian-philosopher. His future-world view is upliftingly optimistic about the triumph of the human spirit. By virtue of his education, Dr. Robertson is comfortable with a professional mathematical approach to problem solving. But he keeps this well in the background, using only high-school mathematics in the discussion, and even that quite sparingly. In an engaging and accessible style, he examines several aspects of the human enterprise and projects their restructure based on the emerging ability of ordinary people and specialists alike to access and manipulate vast amounts of information with ease. The restructuring he describes is deep and pervasive, yielding a world as different from ours as was the previous turn of the millennium. He uses historical precedent to motivate and justify his vision of the immensity of the changes he sees coming.

In the final chapter, Robertson rejects the notion put forth by others -- some quite prominent, whom he names -- that we will run out of frontiers. He puts the case in historical perspective and then makes a logical argument about a future in which humans have universal freedom from "tedious and mindless labor" and are able to spend their lives exploring the marvels of the universe, the arts, mathematics, and science. He calls this a minimal list; to it I would add philosophy, sports, adventure, and possibly new classes of activities not yet dreamt of in our transitional world. This portion alone of Robertson's vision of the future makes the book worth reading. For the totality of his projection, the book is an important experience for any open minded person.

A significant amount of the material in this fascinating new look at a historical-revolution-in-the-making was used in a course that Dr. Robertson and I taught to beginning, non-mathematical students here at the University of Colorado. It quickly became apparent that one of the students favorite parts of the course was the material upon which Dr. Robertson lectured, primarily because the students could clearly see his main points in their evaluations of the world around them. As the Director of the Colorado Center for Chaos & Complexity, I am certainly persueded that the advent of the computer may well mark a turning point in human history, the likes of which we have not seen before. As the invention of language and writing in ancient times heralded the onset of human culture, and in Bronowski's words, "the ascent of man", so too did the printing press allow the dissemination of information to a far wider audience than had then been possible. And now comes the computer, combining far more efficient communication, information archival and processing, together with perhaps the beginnings of true artificial intelligence. We can only begin to speculate at the impact these developments will have on future history -- surely they will be of major importance. I have personally recommended this book to a number of my colleagues and friends who are interested in the impact that computers are having on contemporary society.

To a majority of executives in organizations, Robertson offers a remarkably well-organized and well-written "briefing" on computer technologies which can help them to formulate appropriate strategies and tactics to compete more effectively. I do not damn with faint praise when pointing out that very little of the material in the book is new, earth-shaking, etc. But it is rock-solid. Robertson examines the evolution of language, the accumulation and evaluation of information enabled by language, modes of communication by which to share that information, and new technologies which create almost unlimited opportunities to communicate with almost anyone, anywhere, and at any time. My strong suggestion to those who purchase this book is that they read it in combination with Borgmann's Holding On to Reality and Pinker's The Language Instinct and How the Mind Works.

A fascinating and informative account of the ongoing computer revolution and the opportunities and challenges it presents. The author's enthusiasm for his subject is "catching" as is his spirit of exploration "...no matter how much progress we make, we will forever be at the beginning." It's a book that will stimulate your thinking no matter what your field of expertise.

There are two great things to say about this book: First, Doug has done some truly unique research into the information processing capacity of previous civilizations. This is eye-opening in and of itself. But, second, Doug explains how these increases in information processing capacity lead to abrupt "phase changes" -- transitions in the fundamental structure of civilization. For example the transition from monarchy to democracy -- only possible with the printing press, and not before, or the scientific revolution, and the industrial revolution, again not possible before the invention of the printing press. He uses this to predict a "phase change" in the future as a result of the computer revolution -- that's why he says the invention computer is the beginning of (a new) civilization. He doesn't speculate much on what this future will look like, only saying the world after previous "phase changes" was impossible based on what came before, and this one should be no different. I give the book "4" stars because he goes off on quite a few pointless tangents -- his writing style improves noticably in his second book, "Phase Change". But even though Doug's books were not bestsellers, I belive everyone in the futurist community should read this book and "Phase Change" (which basically expands the chapters on the future of math and science into another whole book). I say futurists should read these books because futurists talk endlessly about Moore's Law and exponential change and exponential "progress" -- but "progress" does not occur as a smooth curve, exponential or otherwise. Instead, information processing capacity increases "in the background", but every so to cause an abrupt "phase change" to explode out of nowhere and utterly restructure society. Historians almost never mention the role of information technology in these revolutions. Doug's book is the first I've seen to zero in on this concept and convince you that it really happens. After reading Doug's book you will stop expecting the future to be a smooth extrapolation of the present (either linear or exponential, as promulgated by futurists such as Ray Kurzweil), and instead start thinking about what discontinuities/ruptures/surprises future "phase changes" might bring -- how civilization could be restructured into something unrecognizable from the world we live in today. I believe this is an important shift in perspective. Doug's thinking style is highly influenced by mathematics, so if you enjoy math and thinking in a logical, rigorous manner, you will enjoy Doug's books.