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Newsonomics: Twelve New Trends That Will Shape the News You Get [Hardcover]

Ken Doctor
4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (9 customer reviews)

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Book Description

February 2, 2010 0312598939 978-0312598938 1

The New News

 

Reports of the death of the news media are highly premature, though you wouldn’t know it from the media’s own headlines. Ken Doctor goes far beyond those headlines, taking an authoritative look at the fast-emerging future.

The Twelve Laws of Newsonomics reveal the kinds of news that readers will get and that journalists (and citizens) will produce as we enter the first truly digital news decade.

A new Digital Dozen, global powerhouses from The New York Times, News Corp, and CNN to NBC, the BBC, and NPR will dominate news across the globe, Locally, a colorful assortment of emerging news players, from Boston to San Diego, are rewriting the rules of city reporting, 

Newsonomics provides a new sense of the news we’ll get on paper, on screen, on the phone, by blog, by podcast, and via Facebook and Twitter. It also offers a new way to understand the why and how of the changes, and where the Googles, Yahoos and Microsofts fit in. Newsonomics pays special attention to media and journalism students in a chapter on the back-to-the-future skills they’ll need, while marketing professionals get their own view of what the changes mean to them.


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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Doctor spent 21 years working in various capacities for the Knight Ridder media empire until the company's sale in 2006, and he offers an overview of the very changes that swept him out the door. But far from expressing bitterness about the barrage of blogs and Web sites that have brought old media giants like his former employer to their knees, Doctor is an enthusiastic, even giddy champion of how advances in digital technology are reshaping news media. He reels off buzzwords and corny catchphrases (It's all beta, baby; I'm not a Chump, I'm a Champion), but sheds little in the way of insight, analysis, or, frankly, news. His rules for newsonomics tend to be disappointingly obvious: Create multimedia, aggregate, blog, master the technology, and market virally. Perhaps to compensate for the lack of substance, Doctor has tricked out the book with sidebars, bullet-point lists, and interview transcripts, emulating the eye-catching style so prevalent in the blogosphere. In doing so, he inadvertently draws attention to what some might consider the chief limitation of the digital boom—that for all the technical innovation, there's still no substitute for good writing and solid reporting. (Feb.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review

"Ken Doctor is one of the smartest people I know in the news business. Where so many people have their heads in the clouds or under the table, he faced reality a long time ago. He gets the economics, the technology, and the personalities of the new news world. He knows the winners from the losers. His book is quite simply the best primer so far to the future of the news".

--Michael Wolff, author of The Man Who Owns the News: Inside the Secret World of Rupert Murdoch

 

"The business model to fund journalism is broken. Ken Doctor picks up the pieces and offers hope to those smart and brave enough to embrace change."

--Gordon Crovitz, former Publisher, Wall Street Journal, co-founder Journalism Online

 

This is a wonderfully informative and conversationally written book that should be a must read for anyone interested in the future of journalism. "Newsonomics" captures the energy, passion, creativity and opportunity of this transformational period for journalism and the media. It’s fun to read and full of relevant facts and context.

--Robert J. Rosenthal, Executive Director, Center for Investigative Reporting 

 

"Ken Doctor is one of the most important and readable analysts in media today. With Newsonomics, he creates some optimism that there is a way to navigate the difficult terrain. Newsonomics is a must-read and will leave you energized."

--Bernie Lunzer, President of The Newspaper Guild-CWA 

 

“Whether you are in the news business or some other industry, Newsonomics, offering sensible ideas for moving forward in any business, is a case study on how quickly your business model can be transformed.”

--Clare Hart, President, Dow Jones Enterprise Media Group


Product Details

  • Hardcover: 240 pages
  • Publisher: St. Martin's Press; 1 edition (February 2, 2010)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0312598939
  • ISBN-13: 978-0312598938
  • Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.4 x 0.9 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (9 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #520,576 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author


Ken Doctor, a leading news industry analyst, is the author of "Newsonomics: Twelve New Trends That Will Shape the News You Get" (St. Martin's Press. It's a handbook for the digital news decade to come.

Newsonomics.com, with its new daily 5Spot feature tracking the trends, is a new site that has launched with the book's publication.

As news industry analyst for Outsell, a global research and advisory firm, and through his own Content Bridges company, he covers the transformation of the news media, as it moves from print and broadcast to digital, focusing on changing business models and the journalism created.

In his work as an analyst, consultant and speaker, he focuses on what's being lost and what's being gained and on how sustainable models of contemporary journalism can be built. He believes we are now entering the Digital News Decade.

A veteran of the digital news industry, he combines deep experience as an executive in news strategy, revenue models and journalism. His experience includes 21 years with Knight Ridder, as well as time spent in the worlds of magazines, alternative journalism and syndication.

My Career

I've seen the news business from at least six sides now - alternative press, monthly magazines, features, news, digital journalism and analyst - and each step along the path feels like an internship. Just as all technology is interim technology, all careers, today, seem more temporary than they used to.

Now I think I'm onto my sixth career. Analysts are simply journalists, I've come to learn, just paid by someone other than news publishers.

Literally, what I'm doing today as an analyst is built on that diverse set of journalistic experience.

I finished my longest career, with Knight Ridder, in 2005, having worked for Knight Ridder Digital for seven years, as vp/editorial, vp/strategy and vp/content services. That time exposed me to the early and ungainly workings of news on the Web.

Though my Knight Ridder experience of 21 years is fast slipping into history, I see how the hundreds of people within that company that I got to know well shaped who shaped my perspective on the business of news. Knight Ridder, for many years, was easily the silver standard in the industry, lacking the cachet of the Times and the Post, but speaking to a way of doing journalism right. Becoming a Knight Ridder editor meant something.

Among a few to note: Jim Batten, late KR CEO, who stayed late at work one evening long ago to convince me to stay with the company and promised career-making opportunities in the years ahead. Soon after, in 1986, Saint Paul Pioneer Press editor Deborah Howell met me at the Twin Cities airport. We immediately hit it off. I was able to acknowledge her in the Newsonomics book, and am further saddened that we lost her suddenly at the year's beginning to an accident in New Zealand, just as that acknowledgment was being printed. The biggest Deborah: when you're an editor with lots of responsibilities to your readers and staff, listen for the voice in the back of your head. If that voice is nagging you to double-check, or revisit, or re-think, don't ignore it. A great journalism lesson, a great life lesson, well-used.

Her successor, Walker Lundy, promoted me to managing editor, in 1991. A Southern fish seemingly out of water in the true north of Minnesota, his homespun aphorisms often masked his deep insight. One time he said to me: "You know, Ken, I expect things to go wrong, and when they don't, I'm pleasantly surprised. You expect things to go right, and when they don't [too often in a newsroom] you're disappointed."

That comment didn't make me check my eternal optimism at the door, but sometimes temper it with, shall we say, realism.

Much of that KR career was built on my formative years in Oregon, first as publisher and editor of the Eugene-based Willamette Valley Observer alternative weekly (1975-1982, RIP and available by microfilm in the Oregon State University library) see lots of parallels between those days and the emergence of the green sprouts of online journalism today.

Those early Eugene days were formative, too, because of my graduate journalism education at the University of Oregon. I gained pointers there that I still use as an analyst decades later. Lately, I've been fortunate to reconnect with the UO Journalism School, through Dean Tim Gleason, one of the nation's pioneers in re-inventing journalism education in the digital age. As tough as things seem for the mid-career journalists of today, I'm enthused about the energy, skills and determination I see developing in the next generation of journalists.

On a personal level, I found myself in perpetual amazement of how digital media are changing - and largely improving - our lives. I lead a fairly digitally inflected life, from work, of course, to news, movies, restaurants and travel. The podcast is my multi-tasking best friend.

I find our travel adventures are further magnified by Internet assistance of all kinds.

My wife Kathy and I have been fortunate enough to begin visiting the wider world over the last two decades, from Turkey and the Czech Republic to India, Ukraine and Nepal. Our 12-seater flight to the top of the Himalayas reminded me of the human capacity for boredom - and need for adventure. As we flew parallel to The Top of the World, each of us, one at a time, was allowed to walk up front and see the sights from the front of the plane, standing just behind the pilot.

In a world, the view was breathtaking.

I said to the pilot, "Wow, that's astounding."

His response: "See it every day."

That, in a nutshell, is the challenge of all web businesses find them confronted with today. No matter how much different, better and wondrous are digitally enhanced lives are today, compared to say, 1990, the expectations of digital consumers are apparently endless, and impatient. Meeting them is a near-impossibility, but I'm sure those who come closest will be the victors in what I call the Age of Darwinian Content.

Customer Reviews

4.1 out of 5 stars
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4.1 out of 5 stars
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
23 of 26 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Doctor writes this book from an elitist perspective, without ever telling the reader and, given his own journalistic background in places such as Eugene, Ore.; Boulder, Colo.; and St. Paul, Minn., perhaps without even realizing it. First, Chapter 1 is written as if every American is frantically searching the Web for the highest quality journalism about everything, all of the time. But while one-third (say, 33%) of the U.S. public uses Google every day, in a typical day less than 1% of the U.S. public is reading, on paper and online combined, The New York Times. The same goes for readership of each of The Dallas Morning News, the Chicago Tribune, The Economist, The Guardian, or viewership of CNN, BBC, News Hour with Jim Lehrer, or Rachel Maddow, and virtually all newspapers, magazines, TV shows, and radio programs that Doctor implies "everyone" is now consuming because of the Web. The fact is that The New York Times was widely available nationally on paper both before and after it was available on the Web, and the Times never was able to get even its Sunday on-paper circulation over 1.5 million in a country of roughly 300 million people despite supposedly everyone wanting to read it. All of Chapter One is written based on a claim, an assumption, that Americans want the highest quality journalism, but he provides NO evidence anywhere in the chapter that this is true for more than a small fraction of the public. It is not until page 81, in fact, that Doctor finally admits that most news consumers settle for "good enough content" (which is true now and always has been). But his recognition of John Q. Public settling for "good enough content" is in direct conflict with his Chapter 1, in which all of us are our own editor, frantically searching the Web all the time for the most excellent journalism.

For a former newspaper editor, he leaves out numerous pieces of context that would show that the U.S. newspaper industry is not quite as incompetent, broke, etc., as it might seem. For instance, on page 10 and elsewhere, he mentions paid circulation figures only for on-paper editions and how quickly they are dropping; he leaves out that many metro dailies total readerships (print and online) have increased dramatically because online readership growth exceeds print readership decline. He also leaves out context for news media that show limited reach; for instance, on page 14, Doctor writes that half of all Americans watch a news video at least once a month. First, such self-reports always exaggerate real numbers. But even if accurate, that means that only 5 million Americans (out of nearly 310 million) watch a news video (such Katie Courac with Sarah Palin, see p. 20) each day which, when divided by the number of news videos available, is not very many per video on average, and is not impressive in total number or percentage of the U.S. population. (Again: a tiny percentage of the U.S. population ever has seen the "gotcha" Palin interview, either live or on the Web.) Likewise, he reports that one-quarter of Americans reads a blog at least once a week. Even if these self-reports (claims) are true, that is a little more than 10 million persons doing it each day, which is only slightly more than 3% of the U.S. population: a large number, a tiny percentage.

"For a former newspaper editor...." (continued): On p. 54, he takes 12 minutes a month on "local newspaper" (see below) websites as evidence that they have bad websites or other news organizations have better ones, but Doctor doesn't point out that local news on local newspapers' websites is not competing against state, national, or international news on other websites. The obvious conclusion is that in suburbs and small cities and even smaller towns all over America, people still want to read their local newspaper PRINTED ON PAPER. On p. 47, he vaguely concedes, "smaller city newspapers are faring a bit better" than regional or metro daily newspapers. Unfortunately, Doctor deemphasizes (to put it mildly) this rather key point, and omits entirely that more than 90% of all U.S. daily newspapers in the United States, as well as more than 90% of all U.S. weekly newspapers, are "smaller city newspapers." On p. 75, he claims that the Internet "began to affect their [newspapers] business in the 1990s," but this has been disproven in fine studies; U.S. newspapers began reacting to the Internet in the 1990s, but the Internet had virtually no impact on newspaper readership until 2003. (This was true for newspaper advertising, too, as Craigslist was still in only 18 cities by the end of 2002.) On p. 85, he writes, "Why has all this money moved [from newspapers] to online?" without a shred of evidence that anything other that much classified advertising has moved from newspapers (as opposed to other media or being new ad dollars) to online. Also on p. 85, he writes, "The Web just works better for so many advertisers than traditional media," again without provided a shred of evidence that is true for anything other than classifieds (cars, dating/sex, real estate, jobs, housing, Google listings ads, etc.).

To full grasp how the U.S. newspaper industry is structured (which Doctor never bothers to tell you, either because he doesn't know himself or because it would get in the way of the narrative he has constructed in his head and wants to pass to you), I refer you to: [..]/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_States_by_circulation.
There, you may note that newspapers #1, #2, #3, #5, and #63 are national newspapers.
Almost all of the others in this top 100 list are or might be called metro dailies, except most of the ones from 89 to 100. The 1,300 U.S. dailies that are NOT on this Wikipedia list are ALL small-to-medium-sized newspapers. Doctor talks about the entire U.S. newspaper industry while, based on his book, seeming to know or care little to nothing about any daily newspaper except the largest 34 of them (St. Paul Pioneer Press [where, not coincidentally, he was managing editor] and larger) out of 1,400.

In fact, Doctor never defines, and therefore can never keep straight, what is a "regional" newspaper and what is a "local" newspaper. On p. 24, he says they both "shrink rapidly." On p. 45, he refers to the metro daily Minneapolis Star-Tribune as a "local" newspaper, and on p. 46, he says that seven "local" newspapers are in bankruptcy while referring to the following metro dailies: Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, Philadelphia Daily News, and others. (Nor does he tell you that they were all put into bankruptcy by overleveraged buyout deals combined with the recession, and not put there by the Internet generally, the "Dirty Dozen" or any other external force.) On p 53, he refers to the Gannett Company as if it consists of nothing but "large dailies," but Gannett Co. owns 82 dailies: one national paper (USA TODAY), 10 metro dailies (Phoenix, Detroit, Indianapolis, Louisville, Cincinnati, Nashville, Rochester, Des Moines, Honolulu, and Wilmington), and 71 medium-to-SMALL sized dailies. Bottom line: Gannett, far from being all large dailies, consists overwhelming of NOT large dailies. And Doctor is dead wrong when he says on page 6 that "every city" has or had "hundreds of journalists." (The typical U.S. daily, which has a circulation of less than 13,000, has a news/editorial staff of about 15 journalists, not "hundreds.")

On page 16, Doctor provides the wrong lesson regarding The New York Herald Tribune and the weekly Life magazine, saying that they died because they did not "excel." In reality, they were both superb, but the Herald Tribune (the quality of which nearly matched, and sometimes exceeded, The New York Times) folded because of a massive union strike that hit all New York City dailies, while Life magazine's advertisers mostly left for network TV while its readers still loved it (it was closed in December 1972, despite a January 1972 rate base of 5+ million circulation!). HINT: Is this what is happening to daily newspapers? Readers drifting away slowly while advertisers leave too quickly? On p. 29, when he makes his point about top journalistic achievement coupled with poor financial performance, he doesn't point out that one can find prominent examples of this in media over hundreds of years! But then Doctor obviously is no historian, journalism or other.

On page 18 and several other places in the book, Doctor never answers the question of whether the average news consumer, or whether anyone, wants or needs the 4,000 news sources on Yahoo! or Google. (Not the least of which reason is this: based on what he tells repeatedly, there are not 4,000 different news organizations doing their own reporting on anything, even Pres. Obama or the Iraq War; only wars get 400, most U.S. national political news can barely scrape together 40 news organizations, so virtually all of the content in 4,000 news organizations is duplicative. Doctor never tells you that either.)

But perhaps the strangest Doctor error or omission in the book is that he almost always leaves out the Great Recession (the largest economic collapse in world history since the Great Depression of the 1930s), which started during Fourth Quarter 2007 and ended during Third Quarter 2009, with a very weak recovery since except Fourth Quarter 2009. On p. 2, he notes drop in U.S. newspaper advertising revenues in 2009, but doesn't mention the Great Recession. Doctor makes the same omission in writing on p. 77 about both revenue figures and the acquisitions of the Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Chicago newspapers, and on p. 78 on why no one would buy a newspaper the last 2˝ years. On p. 85, for the very first time, he finally admits it was a "deep recession. Read more ›
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5 of 6 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars A Vivid Dispatch From the News Wars February 5, 2010
Format:Hardcover
Ken Doctor's new book published Tuesday, "Newsonomics: Twelve New Trends That Will Shape the News You Get," sounds as if it is going to be a treatise, but it's not. Sure, there is plenty of solid analysis, but "Newsonomics" reads more like a series of battlefield dispatches from the hunkered down camp of beleaguered old media and the loosely organized fronts opened by new media insurgents.

And Doctor is a virtual Christiane Amanpour of the news wars -- quick-moving, observant, solid in his interpretations and engaged without being a cranky partisan. Doctor delivers the book I would have expected, given his balanced perspective and consistently rewarding Content Bridges blog. Here are three things I like about the book.

Close-up reporting: Doctor's consulting practice gets him around the country. Without going all featurish, the book includes well-observed details, such as the contrast between the mammoth, half-empty newsroom of The Philadelphia Inquirer with the studio apartment-sized digs of [...](one of the biggest and best of the independent, nonprofit start-ups).

Opening the second chapter, Doctor describes New York Times brand-name tech columnist David Pogue holding forth on a stage in Monterey, Calif. Then he wheels into a solid discussion of how much money the Times may be making on Pogue's work alone.

In the manner of John Morton in his heyday, Doctor taps into insights from questions he is asked and from what he hears from his clients. The result is authoritative.

Good with numbers: Doctor has an eye for the telling statistic. He explains them without a lot of jargon and avoids some of the more convoluted modeling that creeps into some whither-the-news conversations.

A case in point is a commentary on why digital ad rates are still only a fraction of their print counterparts. One reason, Doctor suggests, is the short time that all those millions of unique visitors spend on each site. So, he suggests, most news consumption still occurs in print.

That sent me to my calculator. (My numbers here, not Doctor's.) If there are about 70 million unique visitors per month on newspaper sites and they spend an average of 30 minutes there (on all newspaper sites, not just their hometown paper's) that's 2.1 billion minutes. An average of 43 million print papers are purchased daily. Figure a very conservative 20 minutes per day reading time (and we're not counting pass-along readers), times 30 days. That's 25.8 billion minutes in a month. Ten times as much, about the same as the print/online ad split!

First-person perspective: Linear is out, right? Doctor does not proceed in a straight line, breaking up the loosely knit chapters with newsy sidebars.

The book is organized in the manner of John Naisbitt's 1982 classic, "Megatrends," around 12 stories within the big story. None of the trends are oh-my-God startling, but they add up to a far-reaching overview of what's decaying and gone and of the new order that is emerging.

Most chapters close with a short Q&A interview or two with digital doers. That adds to the from-the-trenches feel of the book and accommodates varying viewpoints. Doctor asks a nifty final question to most people: "What lesson in digital media do you wish you had learned faster?"

Mike Orren, publisher of the Pegasus News site in Dallas, replies (among four takeaways): "Ad sales will ramp 70 percent slower than your most dour prediction. But if you can hang on, they will ramp."

Some readers may be disappointed that the book is not totally up-to-date. But that's inevitable when you try to match the pace of book production with a fast-moving subject. Thus Doctor doesn't really address the course of the recession and likely post-recession scenarios, and his discussion of paid online content is informed but missing the important developments of the last six months.

The book also lacks a grand synthesis or a definitive take on where it will all end. I take that to be a mark of Doctor's intellectual honesty. One can identify important trends, but there is a disorderly, world-turned-upside-down aspect to the current state of the news. Too tidy a book would not be true to the reality of the subject
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4 of 6 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars The (Semi) Positive Economic Future for Journalists February 5, 2010
By Pkras
Format:Hardcover
Ken Doctor, in his valuable new book, Newsonomics, cites a quote from former Knight Ridder exec Jim Batten that "the institution of American journalism owes more to the institution of the department store than the First Amendment."

But what's going to support journalism now that department store advertising is withering; big chunks of paid classifieds have been Craig's Listed; and the circulation (audience) has increasingly moved down the slippery slope to a potpourri of "continuous partial attention" news channels.

Indeed, the details found in newsprint aren't always especially sought after. As Doctor notes, just 44 percent can be bothered to click past the headlines in news aggregators like Google News to get to the original source.

Dead. Dead. Dead. Nobody in their right mind would plan a future at a newspaper or TV news broadcast anymore, right? But then there is this inconvenient statistic: applications to journalism schools have more than doubled in the past several years - even with tuition bills exceeding $50,000 at the elite institutions.

For the journalist who will pursue his or her avocation, plentiful options exist, notes Doctor, a former Knight Ridder Digital exec and publisher at newspapers and alternative weeklies who currently does analysis for Outsell, inc. and writes the Content Bridges blog. The solutions are structured in the book as "twelve new trends that will shape the news you get."

The trends are right on and more than familiar to our Local Onliner audience ("Itch the Niche!"). But happily, Doctor avoids the blue sky and covers the bases with the aplomb of an all star. His comprehensive review, interesting detail and demand that the relationships between business and journalism be creatively re-explored makes this a valuable book for those who care about the future of journalism, and its critical role in democratic societies.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
4.0 out of 5 stars An Interesting Take On The Ongoing Evolution of Journalism
After reading this book with an eye to what it means for the printed book (as opposed to newsprint and broadcast media), one single phrase from the text still follows me:... Read more
Published 14 months ago by Gregory McMahan
5.0 out of 5 stars A Realistic and Optimistic View of the Future
Journalists hate to talk about the economics of their profession, which is why this is such a valuable book. Read more
Published 22 months ago by Paul Gillin
5.0 out of 5 stars Wonderful primer on the business and future of journalism organized...
I just graduated journalism school and read this toward the end of my final semester in a class called the Business and Future of Journalism. Read more
Published on June 16, 2010 by Melanie Kiser
3.0 out of 5 stars overlong magazine article
On the front cover it's the "twelve new trends that will shape the news..." On the back cover it's "twelve laws that will shape the news..." Which is it? Read more
Published on June 10, 2010 by maltby
5.0 out of 5 stars Ken Doctor understands the future of news
With all the conjecture about the future of the news media floating around cyberspace and the constant debates about new media vs. old media; bloggers vs. Read more
Published on June 6, 2010 by A. Connor
4.0 out of 5 stars Breaks down the news industry well
None of this is news, but this is a good, coherent and relevant collection of thoughts on how the news industry got where it is and some discussions of how to move forward. Read more
Published on February 26, 2010 by Russell J. Lewis
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