Customer Reviews

The Next War

5 star:		(6)
4 star:		(6)
3 star:		(4)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(8)

 

 

Former Defense Secretary Cap Weinberger and his Hoover Institution co-author Peter Schweizer play out five different hypothetical "war game" scenarios between the United States and various potential adversaries. The book's strength is in the technical details of war which is also one source of the book's weakness. Weinberger and his scholarly co-author write confidently about troop strength and the fighting capabilities of various force sizes when matched against the military forces of various "enemy" powers. To keep the book interesting and prevent it from becoming too dry, the authors have elected to employ a "Tom Clancy-style" of narrative with various fictional characters reacting to events in each of the hypothetical war scenarios. Some have criticized this approach but I found that it worked for me as a reader and did not detract from the central points the authors wished to make.

My criticism of the book arises from a wholly different quarter. In sum, I thought the authors never answered the central question posed by the title of their book. Based on the title alone, (which is a real teaser, I might add) I thought our former Defense Secretary would give us his wisdom on likely threats to our national security in the 21st century and why. Instead, what I received was (overall) a rather passionless statistical and analytical analysis (much like a RAND report) of the force strength necessary to fight any of several possible wars, none of which was viewed by the authors as any more likely than another. (I think we had a right to expect more from such a highly esteemed, well-traveled former Defense Secretary. Which scenario does Cap Weinberger feel is most likely of the five? Which potential adversary is he most worried and concerned about and why? He never answers or explores any of these issues.) Far from "ranking" or "speculating" on which adversaries pose the greatest threat and why, the authors wholly abjure making such educated predictions.

What will be the "Next War"? The authors never answer that central question. For that information, I had to turn to a book by a less famous author released at roughly the same time as Weinberger's book. Anthony J. Dennis, in his slender (160-some pages), spell-binding, tightly reasoned book "The Rise of the Islamic Empire and the Threat to the West," (Wyndham Hall Press) gives the reader a fascinating explanation of why he believes the next war will involve the U.S. (and perhaps other Western powers) and the fundamentalist Muslim world (with Iran, Turkey, Sudan and various Muslim Central Asian nations as its axis).

I heard Dennis on a syndicated talk radio show in March where he was a guest for two hours about one week after I had heard Cap Weinberger as a guest on the same talk show. Dennis was articulate, highly engaging as a guest and extremely knowledgeable and certain of his facts. As a result, the host - Roger Fredinburg, kept him on the program for two full hours. Weinberger was articulate as a guest on the same show but the conversation never "caught fire" as it did with Dennis on the line.

Unlike the venerable former Defense Secretary, Anthony Dennis clearly describes in compelling detail what he believes the next national security threat will be in the early 21st century. Having read both books at this point (I happen to work for a "think tank" and so have a real, abiding interest in these issues), I would recommend both books be read together - one for the technical details of war (always important); the other for its creative and visionary thinking about the shape of potential conflicts to come and the reasons why such conflicts are perhaps likely.

This book may look very dreamer. But the Iran chapter looks very much like the current Afgan-terrorist crisis. When i started reading this book it looked to me very Clancy Style but not any more after looking at the twin towers colapse. As a mexican the scenario regarding Mexico and the narcotic-democracy its totally possible, i hope it will never happen. I recommend this book very much to you, the future vision of a Defense Secretary under the greatest president of the XX century must be considered. Enjoy.

Do you think that we could win a war in the event one ever broke out? Are our current manpower levels enough to thwart off attacks from third world dictators? Can we suppress outbreaks of violence in the world?

In this 450 plus page book, which may house hypothetical situations, you'll read what could happen. You find yourself asking questions about our military leadership and you will even start to look at the world in a different light.

Weinberger's knowledge of military tactics, strategy and defense planning our unmatched and unparalleled. He was Secretary of Defense for over seven years. His knowledge of world politics is with a doubt superb.

Most impressive is the ability to show the complexity of the situations and show how the United States armed forces are matched against the world. Weinberger's works is nothing short of a miraculous - excellent reading!

If you want to read a gripping novel on the next U.S. war scenario, this book will disappoint you. If you are looking to delve a bit further than the printed word and think about the scenarios themselves, that is, if you want a book to make you think about our current national defense strategy and the state of affairs in our armed services, this book will do just fine. The former SecDef has outlined several plausible scenarios where the U.S. is caught short due to our current (and drastic) reductions of the armed services. One problem I have with the scenarios is that Weinberger overplays the use of nuclear weapons. He minimizes the thought process a foreign leader would use before employing such a weapon. However, our current national defense strategy is to fight, and win, two seperate regional wars/conflicts simultaneously. Read the book, examine the scenarios, then think on your own. Can we meet the objectives of such a strategy?

I enjoyed this book, despite the fact that there were several military items that were given to excede their specifications. Otherwise, it is a book for all those who have seen the significant reducton in US Armed Forces technology. My favorite is the new Russian empire scenario.

If you are a reader who likes military books & military history, you'll like this book. It reads like fiction but is based on what the author thinks will be the next military "hot spots" in the world. Mr. Weinberger brings a wealth of knowledge & experience to his effort. It is also a scathing commentary on how our military has been allowed to deteriote over the last 6 years. Well worth the reading!!!

If you read this in '96 when the book was first published you may have thought the ideas were outlandish. But alas, now nine years later all of the scenarios are quite possible. With the current state of the world as it is, the state of the US military and American public sentiment with its overwhelming left-wing liberal pacifist views, this ends up being an extremely scary look into the future. If Americans don't wake up and realize that the world not only despises the US but will do everything possible to stake their claim on resources the American public has taken for granted, then we could be learning Chinese or Japanese in the near future. Not because we want to either. Take a look out your window and think about what really goes into your big manly testosterone-filled SUV or truck that you use to go cruising around in for purposes other than what it was intended for. There are a ba-zillion Chinese that would just love to be able to use all of those natural resources to, not fuel their car or truck, but to simply stay alive, raise crops more efficiently, or maybe have some heat for a couple of hours a day. Although this is obviously fiction, some of the aspects of immigration and natural resource acquisition ring true in today's world of Mexican/US relations concerning cooperation in the anti-drug/counterterrorism campaign as well as the Japanese/US relations in the Pacific. Afterall, the Japanese didn't attack Pearl Harbor "for the Axis" in '41, they bombed Pearl Harbor for the Japanese. Possession and control of natural resources makes governments do some crazy things...

While the writing may not impress the literati, the message is a crucial one to the United States. In the post Cold War era we will face conflicts quite unlike those we saw in years past. And if the US blithely relegates the military as an anachronism, it will likely be unable to react well. Weinberger and Schweitzer drive home the point that the global situation may change dramatically, contrary to the popular belief in stability. They show that foreign powers may question American authority (especially in the face of military cutbacks) while old alliance may crumble if the stakes are high enough. If you're looking for a novel or a technical analysis, find something else. But if you can stand being jolted with a probable scenario in which the US suffers defeat (or unfavorable peace), keep an open mind and read this book.

This book does indeed have some technical flaws, especially with regard to military nomenclature, but that should not be allowed to weaken the compelling message that the New World Order is long on new and short on order. The Clinton Administration has balanced the federal budget on the backs of the Social Security Trust Fund and the Defense Budget. The result is a hollow military force incapable of performing the missions it needs to handle and a nation that will one day be vulnerable to ballistic missiles not just from Russia and China, but nations like North Korea and Iran. Our world is still a dangerous place and at some point Bill Clinton's neglect of our national security will cost American lives and jeopardize our peace and security.

I recently reread the book and was impressed at how accurate many of the scenarios turned out to be. Even the admittedly unlikely war with Japan was precipitated by the sort of unrest we are now seeing the the Mid-East. Iran and Mexico could have been pulled from recent newspapers.