Graham Allison is one of America's leading experts on nuclear weapons and national security. He has served in the Department of Defense as assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans, is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and a professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. In other words, when this man speaks and writes on an issue where he has the expertise, it is prudent, very prudent, to pay attention to what he has to say. And he has a lot to say in his new book entitled "Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe."
I am a great fan of suspense thrillers and novels about spies, espionage, and international crises and disasters. How I wish that Allison's book was just another of my exciting leisure-time fictional entertainments! But, unfortunately, this book is nonfiction: a serious, indeed extremely serious, and sober, discussion of the threat we face called "nuclear terrorism." For example, one "dirty bomb," which simply consists of conventional explosives dispersing radioactive materials, exploded in downtown Manhattan, would make the island uninhabitable for years and result in many thousands of deaths from the immediate blast, from radiation poisoning over time, and from the immediate panic it would cause at the outset. And note: these radioactive materials are readily available in many medical and industrial facilities and, of course, explosives are so easy to obtain that they often fall into the hands of knowledgeable teenagers.
Scary? Of course. But that's not the worst possibility that Allison discusses in his book. Just suppose the bomb is a ten-kiloton nuclear weapon and it is smuggled into New York City, not all that difficult to do since not every package container or usable vehicle can be searched or inspected. On the other hand, maybe it's already there, smuggled in long before this, just waiting to be activated. What would happen if it was detonated? Well, according to Allison, if the bomb were set off in Times Square, up to a million people would probably die instantly. Thousands upon thousands more would be killed by collapsing buildings, fires, and the effects of radiation. Life and living, as New Yorkers have known it, would be changed forever in a matter of milliseconds.
If you think it would be too difficult for a terrorist group to build a nuclear weapon, think again. According to Allison, the only real difficulty to creating a nuclear weapon is getting one's hands on the fissionable material necessary to produce the nuclear explosion. This material is highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium. Think that it's almost impossible for a would-be terrorist to obtain such material? Consider these facts the author has uncovered: In 1993, a Russian Navy captain entered a shipyard through an unguarded gate, broke into a building used to store nuclear submarine fuel, and stole three pieces of reactor core containing about ten pounds of HEU; In 1994, Czech police seized over eight pounds of HEU in the city of Prague, which was found inside a metal container in the back-seat of a car parked on a side street; In 2000, four Georgian nationals were arrested with about two pounds of HEU outside Batumi, the capital of the chaotic Adzhariya Autonomous Republic in Georgia. These are just a few examples. Allison provides a lot more, even showing how such material could be stolen within the United States at certain nuclear storage sites.
After a chapter devoted to showing how easy it would be to acquire fissionable material, Allison devotes the next chapter to the question: "When could terrorists launch the first nuclear attack?" You'll be surprised at the answer, I guarantee it. The reader should pay particular attention to the sub-topic in this chapter about "Building It Yourself." The author even includes diagrams for a simple "gun-type" nuclear bomb and an implosion-type nuclear bomb. Is he being irresponsible? No, these diagrams are easily available to anyone elsewhere! Following this discussion, in the next chapter, Allison discusses the question, "How could terrorists deliver a nuclear weapon to its target?" A number of scenarios are offered and he shows how easy it would be to smuggle a nuclear device into the United States and, of course, into New York City or anywhere else. Now go back and read paragraphs two and three in this review.
So, is it hopeless? The first half of Allison's book would lead one to believe that this is the case. But the author spends the second half of his book arguing that nuclear terrorism is preventable. And he provides a framework, a schematic of sorts, for a program of policies to prevent nuclear terrorism. First, there must be the "Three No's": No loose nukes, no new nascent nukes, and no new nuclear weapons states. Second, there must be the "Seven Yeses": Making the prevention of nuclear terrorism an absolute national priority, fighting a strategically focused war on terrorism, conducting a humble foreign policy, building a global alliance against nuclear terrorism, creating the intelligence capabilities required for success in the war on nuclear terrorism, dealing with dirty bombs, and constructing a multilayered defense. For the details of these no's and yeses, you'll just have to read the book. I think you'll find them reasonable and necessary. While Allison suggests a blueprint for prevention, it will ultimately be up to Americans and their government, hopefully in accord and alliance with other peoples of the world and their governments, to implement the policies he recommends.
"Nuclear Terrorism" is a book which needs to be read by every person who is concerned by the unprecedented threats which surround our lives today in a world which stands on the brink of a possible nuclear disaster. Graham Allison has defined the problem, provided the facts, and suggested a solution. Now it is up to the rest of us to help create the climate wherein the solution he proposes can be implemented.
