Most Helpful Customer Reviews
56 of 60 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Absolutely essential reading..., August 30, 2004
Graham Allison is one of America's leading experts on nuclear weapons and national security. He has served in the Department of Defense as assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans, is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and a professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. In other words, when this man speaks and writes on an issue where he has the expertise, it is prudent, very prudent, to pay attention to what he has to say. And he has a lot to say in his new book entitled "Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe." I am a great fan of suspense thrillers and novels about spies, espionage, and international crises and disasters. How I wish that Allison's book was just another of my exciting leisure-time fictional entertainments! But, unfortunately, this book is nonfiction: a serious, indeed extremely serious, and sober, discussion of the threat we face called "nuclear terrorism." For example, one "dirty bomb," which simply consists of conventional explosives dispersing radioactive materials, exploded in downtown Manhattan, would make the island uninhabitable for years and result in many thousands of deaths from the immediate blast, from radiation poisoning over time, and from the immediate panic it would cause at the outset. And note: these radioactive materials are readily available in many medical and industrial facilities and, of course, explosives are so easy to obtain that they often fall into the hands of knowledgeable teenagers. Scary? Of course. But that's not the worst possibility that Allison discusses in his book. Just suppose the bomb is a ten-kiloton nuclear weapon and it is smuggled into New York City, not all that difficult to do since not every package container or usable vehicle can be searched or inspected. On the other hand, maybe it's already there, smuggled in long before this, just waiting to be activated. What would happen if it was detonated? Well, according to Allison, if the bomb were set off in Times Square, up to a million people would probably die instantly. Thousands upon thousands more would be killed by collapsing buildings, fires, and the effects of radiation. Life and living, as New Yorkers have known it, would be changed forever in a matter of milliseconds. If you think it would be too difficult for a terrorist group to build a nuclear weapon, think again. According to Allison, the only real difficulty to creating a nuclear weapon is getting one's hands on the fissionable material necessary to produce the nuclear explosion. This material is highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium. Think that it's almost impossible for a would-be terrorist to obtain such material? Consider these facts the author has uncovered: In 1993, a Russian Navy captain entered a shipyard through an unguarded gate, broke into a building used to store nuclear submarine fuel, and stole three pieces of reactor core containing about ten pounds of HEU; In 1994, Czech police seized over eight pounds of HEU in the city of Prague, which was found inside a metal container in the back-seat of a car parked on a side street; In 2000, four Georgian nationals were arrested with about two pounds of HEU outside Batumi, the capital of the chaotic Adzhariya Autonomous Republic in Georgia. These are just a few examples. Allison provides a lot more, even showing how such material could be stolen within the United States at certain nuclear storage sites. After a chapter devoted to showing how easy it would be to acquire fissionable material, Allison devotes the next chapter to the question: "When could terrorists launch the first nuclear attack?" You'll be surprised at the answer, I guarantee it. The reader should pay particular attention to the sub-topic in this chapter about "Building It Yourself." The author even includes diagrams for a simple "gun-type" nuclear bomb and an implosion-type nuclear bomb. Is he being irresponsible? No, these diagrams are easily available to anyone elsewhere! Following this discussion, in the next chapter, Allison discusses the question, "How could terrorists deliver a nuclear weapon to its target?" A number of scenarios are offered and he shows how easy it would be to smuggle a nuclear device into the United States and, of course, into New York City or anywhere else. Now go back and read paragraphs two and three in this review. So, is it hopeless? The first half of Allison's book would lead one to believe that this is the case. But the author spends the second half of his book arguing that nuclear terrorism is preventable. And he provides a framework, a schematic of sorts, for a program of policies to prevent nuclear terrorism. First, there must be the "Three No's": No loose nukes, no new nascent nukes, and no new nuclear weapons states. Second, there must be the "Seven Yeses": Making the prevention of nuclear terrorism an absolute national priority, fighting a strategically focused war on terrorism, conducting a humble foreign policy, building a global alliance against nuclear terrorism, creating the intelligence capabilities required for success in the war on nuclear terrorism, dealing with dirty bombs, and constructing a multilayered defense. For the details of these no's and yeses, you'll just have to read the book. I think you'll find them reasonable and necessary. While Allison suggests a blueprint for prevention, it will ultimately be up to Americans and their government, hopefully in accord and alliance with other peoples of the world and their governments, to implement the policies he recommends. "Nuclear Terrorism" is a book which needs to be read by every person who is concerned by the unprecedented threats which surround our lives today in a world which stands on the brink of a possible nuclear disaster. Graham Allison has defined the problem, provided the facts, and suggested a solution. Now it is up to the rest of us to help create the climate wherein the solution he proposes can be implemented.
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
12 of 13 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
Depressing, December 30, 2005
According to a growing number of authorities I have read in recent years, a nuclear attack on the United States is almost inevitable. The bomb(s) will not come by intercontinental missile, but will be smuggled into the country, carried by car to most likely New York or Washington D.C., and detonated. Hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of people will die. It will be the worst catastrophe to befall the US ever and may result in world-wide social, political and economic chaos. The US may or may not know who planted the bomb, but you can be sure that some action will be taken, possibly of a nuclear nature. Where will this bomb come from? Graham Allison, the founding dean of Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, an expert on nuclear proliferation, gives these likely possibilities: from the inadequately accounted for Russian arsenal, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran's incipient program, or the bomb may be made from fissile material available on the black market. Allison makes it abundantly clear that how to make a bomb is not a problem. The information is readily available on the Web. The question that daunts me is how will the US know for sure where the bomb originated and who planted it? It doesn't seem possible that after a nuclear explosion there could be a forensic signature in the rubble. Herein lies a big problem. Suppose the US thinks the bomb came from Russia, sold to Al Qaeda by a disgruntled group of ex-Soviet scientists and military people. How does the US retaliate? Bomb Russia? That would usher in a very quick WWIII with consequences too horrific to contemplate. Bomb western Pakistan where bin Laden may (or may not) be hiding? That seems pathetic. The fact of the matter as I see it is that the US will not be able to retaliate in kind to a suitcase bomb exploded in one of our cities. Consequently there is no deterrent available such as the kind that kept the Cold War cold with Mutually Assured Destruction. Furthermore, the people who would plant such a bomb are religious fanatics of the Al Qaeda variety who wouldn't care if we killed them or not. Therefore, this "inevitable" catastrophe has to be prevented. How? Allison proposes a most ambitious program using carrots and sticks on rogue incipient nuclear states to persuade them to give up their nuclear aspirations. The fewer bombs there are in the world the less likely one is to turn up in the hands of bin Laden. That makes sense. At the same time, spend whatever amount of money it takes (he estimates between 30 and 60 billion dollars will be necessary--a fraction of the amount we have already spent in Iraq) to buy up and otherwise acquire and deactivate any bombs that may be unaccounted for or produced. Additionally, we have to shore up our borders so that bombs cannot get in. How much this would cost, Allison doesn't say, and indeed his tone makes it clear to me that he doesn't think it will happen. There is a joke he relates. How do you smuggle an atomic bomb into the US? You wrap it in marijuana. Although Allison gives us a program of how we might drastically decrease the odds of a bomb getting into the US, I don't think he makes much of a case for demonstrating how we can develop the political will to do it. Clearly the Bush administration is not getting the job done. The borders are as porous as ever. Iran and North Korea are moving ahead with their bomb-building programs. Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations are healthy and gaining recruits. Nuclear security in Russia is abysmal. I wonder if Bush thinks that the Rapture will come soon, making nuclear terrorism a moot issue. Allison does not say this, but it is clear that he doesn't think the Bush administration is doing anywhere near what it should to prevent nuclear terrorism. I really do wonder why. Does it seem too overwhelming a task? Or is it incompetence or stupidity? Or something more sinister?--like actually inviting a pretext for an all-out war with Islam, which we would presumably win, and gain great favor with the Almighty in doing so. This is a good book, extensively documented, clearly presented, and it couldn't be timelier. But it is ultimately dissatisfying because most of the information about what the US is or is not doing to meet the nuclear threat is classified and does not appear in the book. In reading this I felt like I was reading a manuscript that had great portions of it excised so only the most obvious information was available. Despite my cynicism, surely the Bush administration IS doing everything it can to prevent a nuclear catastrophe. Yet we really know nothing specifically about just what action it is taking. Is there a plan to surgically bomb North Korea's nuclear facilities if negotiations don't work? At what point will Israel or the US wipe out Iran's nascent bomb-building program? Clearly from what we know of the fanaticism of the ruling theocracy, they will have no compunction about using nuclear weapons if they have them--or better yet, giving them to Al Qaeda to use. So this book is good up to a point--up to the point of what is really going on. Unfortunately we will not know that until some decades down the road when the relevant documentation is declassified. Meanwhile, I would NOT recommend relocating to New York, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, Chicago or any other tempting target. As Allison relates, Al Qaeda wants four million dead Americans and they won't get them by hijacking planes or dynamiting school children.
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
11 of 12 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
nuclear terrorism--a medical viewpoint, August 18, 2004
I am an emergency room RN and saw one of my patients reading this book so intently we could hardly get him to put it down for an x-ray. I was intrigued by what he told me, so I bought a copy the next day. It is an amazing story and one that all Americans should be aware of. Most remarkable, however, is the description of how an attack can be prevented/stopped. Not with some pie-in-the-sky solution but rather with very specific actions the government could take. Again, I urge all Americans to read this book and then write to their congressmen about it. As an ER nurse with twenty five years experience, I can tell you that should a nuclear attack of any magnitude occur there will not be much we can do for you. Now is the time to stop that possibility and Dr.Allison's book gives us guidelines to do so.
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
|
|
Most Recent Customer Reviews
|
