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Nuclear Terrorism : The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe

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Graham Allison is one of America's leading experts on nuclear weapons and national security. He has served in the Department of Defense as assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans, is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and a professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. In other words, when this man speaks and writes on an issue where he has the expertise, it is prudent, very prudent, to pay attention to what he has to say. And he has a lot to say in his new book entitled "Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe."

I am a great fan of suspense thrillers and novels about spies, espionage, and international crises and disasters. How I wish that Allison's book was just another of my exciting leisure-time fictional entertainments! But, unfortunately, this book is nonfiction: a serious, indeed extremely serious, and sober, discussion of the threat we face called "nuclear terrorism." For example, one "dirty bomb," which simply consists of conventional explosives dispersing radioactive materials, exploded in downtown Manhattan, would make the island uninhabitable for years and result in many thousands of deaths from the immediate blast, from radiation poisoning over time, and from the immediate panic it would cause at the outset. And note: these radioactive materials are readily available in many medical and industrial facilities and, of course, explosives are so easy to obtain that they often fall into the hands of knowledgeable teenagers.

Scary? Of course. But that's not the worst possibility that Allison discusses in his book. Just suppose the bomb is a ten-kiloton nuclear weapon and it is smuggled into New York City, not all that difficult to do since not every package container or usable vehicle can be searched or inspected. On the other hand, maybe it's already there, smuggled in long before this, just waiting to be activated. What would happen if it was detonated? Well, according to Allison, if the bomb were set off in Times Square, up to a million people would probably die instantly. Thousands upon thousands more would be killed by collapsing buildings, fires, and the effects of radiation. Life and living, as New Yorkers have known it, would be changed forever in a matter of milliseconds.

If you think it would be too difficult for a terrorist group to build a nuclear weapon, think again. According to Allison, the only real difficulty to creating a nuclear weapon is getting one's hands on the fissionable material necessary to produce the nuclear explosion. This material is highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium. Think that it's almost impossible for a would-be terrorist to obtain such material? Consider these facts the author has uncovered: In 1993, a Russian Navy captain entered a shipyard through an unguarded gate, broke into a building used to store nuclear submarine fuel, and stole three pieces of reactor core containing about ten pounds of HEU; In 1994, Czech police seized over eight pounds of HEU in the city of Prague, which was found inside a metal container in the back-seat of a car parked on a side street; In 2000, four Georgian nationals were arrested with about two pounds of HEU outside Batumi, the capital of the chaotic Adzhariya Autonomous Republic in Georgia. These are just a few examples. Allison provides a lot more, even showing how such material could be stolen within the United States at certain nuclear storage sites.

After a chapter devoted to showing how easy it would be to acquire fissionable material, Allison devotes the next chapter to the question: "When could terrorists launch the first nuclear attack?" You'll be surprised at the answer, I guarantee it. The reader should pay particular attention to the sub-topic in this chapter about "Building It Yourself." The author even includes diagrams for a simple "gun-type" nuclear bomb and an implosion-type nuclear bomb. Is he being irresponsible? No, these diagrams are easily available to anyone elsewhere! Following this discussion, in the next chapter, Allison discusses the question, "How could terrorists deliver a nuclear weapon to its target?" A number of scenarios are offered and he shows how easy it would be to smuggle a nuclear device into the United States and, of course, into New York City or anywhere else. Now go back and read paragraphs two and three in this review.

So, is it hopeless? The first half of Allison's book would lead one to believe that this is the case. But the author spends the second half of his book arguing that nuclear terrorism is preventable. And he provides a framework, a schematic of sorts, for a program of policies to prevent nuclear terrorism. First, there must be the "Three No's": No loose nukes, no new nascent nukes, and no new nuclear weapons states. Second, there must be the "Seven Yeses": Making the prevention of nuclear terrorism an absolute national priority, fighting a strategically focused war on terrorism, conducting a humble foreign policy, building a global alliance against nuclear terrorism, creating the intelligence capabilities required for success in the war on nuclear terrorism, dealing with dirty bombs, and constructing a multilayered defense. For the details of these no's and yeses, you'll just have to read the book. I think you'll find them reasonable and necessary. While Allison suggests a blueprint for prevention, it will ultimately be up to Americans and their government, hopefully in accord and alliance with other peoples of the world and their governments, to implement the policies he recommends.

"Nuclear Terrorism" is a book which needs to be read by every person who is concerned by the unprecedented threats which surround our lives today in a world which stands on the brink of a possible nuclear disaster. Graham Allison has defined the problem, provided the facts, and suggested a solution. Now it is up to the rest of us to help create the climate wherein the solution he proposes can be implemented.

According to a growing number of authorities I have read in recent years, a nuclear attack on the United States is almost inevitable. The bomb(s) will not come by intercontinental missile, but will be smuggled into the country, carried by car to most likely New York or Washington D.C., and detonated. Hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of people will die. It will be the worst catastrophe to befall the US ever and may result in world-wide social, political and economic chaos. The US may or may not know who planted the bomb, but you can be sure that some action will be taken, possibly of a nuclear nature.

Where will this bomb come from? Graham Allison, the founding dean of Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, an expert on nuclear proliferation, gives these likely possibilities: from the inadequately accounted for Russian arsenal, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran's incipient program, or the bomb may be made from fissile material available on the black market. Allison makes it abundantly clear that how to make a bomb is not a problem. The information is readily available on the Web.

The question that daunts me is how will the US know for sure where the bomb originated and who planted it? It doesn't seem possible that after a nuclear explosion there could be a forensic signature in the rubble. Herein lies a big problem. Suppose the US thinks the bomb came from Russia, sold to Al Qaeda by a disgruntled group of ex-Soviet scientists and military people. How does the US retaliate? Bomb Russia? That would usher in a very quick WWIII with consequences too horrific to contemplate. Bomb western Pakistan where bin Laden may (or may not) be hiding? That seems pathetic.

The fact of the matter as I see it is that the US will not be able to retaliate in kind to a suitcase bomb exploded in one of our cities. Consequently there is no deterrent available such as the kind that kept the Cold War cold with Mutually Assured Destruction. Furthermore, the people who would plant such a bomb are religious fanatics of the Al Qaeda variety who wouldn't care if we killed them or not.

Therefore, this "inevitable" catastrophe has to be prevented. How? Allison proposes a most ambitious program using carrots and sticks on rogue incipient nuclear states to persuade them to give up their nuclear aspirations. The fewer bombs there are in the world the less likely one is to turn up in the hands of bin Laden. That makes sense. At the same time, spend whatever amount of money it takes (he estimates between 30 and 60 billion dollars will be necessary--a fraction of the amount we have already spent in Iraq) to buy up and otherwise acquire and deactivate any bombs that may be unaccounted for or produced. Additionally, we have to shore up our borders so that bombs cannot get in. How much this would cost, Allison doesn't say, and indeed his tone makes it clear to me that he doesn't think it will happen. There is a joke he relates. How do you smuggle an atomic bomb into the US? You wrap it in marijuana.

Although Allison gives us a program of how we might drastically decrease the odds of a bomb getting into the US, I don't think he makes much of a case for demonstrating how we can develop the political will to do it. Clearly the Bush administration is not getting the job done. The borders are as porous as ever. Iran and North Korea are moving ahead with their bomb-building programs. Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations are healthy and gaining recruits. Nuclear security in Russia is abysmal. I wonder if Bush thinks that the Rapture will come soon, making nuclear terrorism a moot issue.

Allison does not say this, but it is clear that he doesn't think the Bush administration is doing anywhere near what it should to prevent nuclear terrorism. I really do wonder why. Does it seem too overwhelming a task? Or is it incompetence or stupidity? Or something more sinister?--like actually inviting a pretext for an all-out war with Islam, which we would presumably win, and gain great favor with the Almighty in doing so.

This is a good book, extensively documented, clearly presented, and it couldn't be timelier. But it is ultimately dissatisfying because most of the information about what the US is or is not doing to meet the nuclear threat is classified and does not appear in the book. In reading this I felt like I was reading a manuscript that had great portions of it excised so only the most obvious information was available. Despite my cynicism, surely the Bush administration IS doing everything it can to prevent a nuclear catastrophe. Yet we really know nothing specifically about just what action it is taking. Is there a plan to surgically bomb North Korea's nuclear facilities if negotiations don't work? At what point will Israel or the US wipe out Iran's nascent bomb-building program? Clearly from what we know of the fanaticism of the ruling theocracy, they will have no compunction about using nuclear weapons if they have them--or better yet, giving them to Al Qaeda to use.

So this book is good up to a point--up to the point of what is really going on. Unfortunately we will not know that until some decades down the road when the relevant documentation is declassified.

Meanwhile, I would NOT recommend relocating to New York, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, Chicago or any other tempting target. As Allison relates, Al Qaeda wants four million dead Americans and they won't get them by hijacking planes or dynamiting school children.

I am an emergency room RN and saw one of my patients reading this book so intently we could hardly get him to put it down for an x-ray. I was intrigued by what he told me, so I bought a copy the next day.

It is an amazing story and one that all Americans should be aware of. Most remarkable, however, is the description of how an attack can be prevented/stopped. Not with some pie-in-the-sky solution but rather with very specific actions the government could take.

Again, I urge all Americans to read this book and then write to their congressmen about it. As an ER nurse with twenty five years experience, I can tell you that should a nuclear attack of any magnitude occur there will not be much we can do for you. Now is the time to stop that possibility and Dr.Allison's book gives us guidelines to do so.

This book argues that nuclear terrorism is a frightening threat, that we are vulnerable, and that it is almost inevitable if we don't try much harder, and more effectively, to prevent it. The first two points are certainly correct. But is nuclear terrorism as easy and inevitable as Allison argues? One is reminded of the famous physicist Enrico Fermi's remark about extraterrestrial intelligent life: ``So where is everybody?'', meaning that if the universe is full of advanced intelligent life, why hasn't it come and made itself known? If nuclear terrorism is as easy as Allison claims, why hasn't it happened yet?

The answer must be that it isn't so easy after all. But that doesn't provide much reassurance---if it was too difficult for al Qaeda in 2001, can we sure it will be beyond the means of al Qaeda's successors ten years later? Of course, we cannot be sure, and that makes Allison's wake-up call valuable. More nuclear material is being created, often in unreliable or unstable hands (Pakistan, North Korea, Iran, possibly lost in Russia).

Allison's solutions are obvious and sensible: ensure that no new nuclear powers are created, disarm North Korea, make sure tight control is maintained over existing nuclear material, some of which is now scattered and poorly controlled in research reactors around the world and possibly also in Russia.

Unfortunately, this book is long on these generalities and short on specifics. The devil is in the details: How do we disarm North Korea, keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and keep Pakistan's (and Russia's) from falling into the hands of terrorists? That is not so simple or easy, and criticizing the present administration for not trying hard enough, whether or not justified, isn't useful (if they are trying harder, it may be all behind the scenes).

When one gets to details Allison does not inspire confidence. For example, he talks about scores of Russian ``suitcase'' (sized) weapons unaccounted for. If this were really true, some would have turned up by now, either detonated or seized from terrorists or black marketeers. Presumably the details are all secret, but there must be more to this story than the alarmist reports Allison cites so breathlessly. A little skepticism is required.

It is also clear that Allison is ignorant of almost everything technical to do with nuclear weapsons. Nuclear terrorism is a technical as well as a political issue. A knowledgeable technologist can find errors on practically every page that deals with these issues. Here are some examples:

p.4 Surface bursts produce negligible electromagnetic pulse

p.8 X-ray machines do not contain radioactive material

p.54 Chernobyl killed 37 people directly, not 6000. The number of later fatalities from cancer is uncertain, and may be small.

p.91 High explosives do not ``dry out''.

p.105 Depleted uranium does not have ``a radioactive signature essentially equivalent to that of HEU [Highly Enriched Uranium]''.

p.107 A football-sized lump of HEU would not ``be indistinguishable from any other metal object of the same size''. For example, it would weigh about 180 lb, more than twice as much as the same volume of iron (and nearly twice as much as the same volume of lead), and be many times more opaque to even the most penetrating X-rays.

p.197 Californium (one isotope is a neutron source), not americium, is used in oil well logging. Americium (an alpha emitter) is used in smoke detectors.

None of this affects the conclusion that nuclear terrorism is a real and frightening threat. Combatting it should be our government's first priority.

Nearly everyone has heard of rumors of nuclear weapons missing from the arsenal of the former Soviet Union, and perhaps in the hands of terrorists, or soon to be. This book covers this and many other aspects of nuclear terrorism. In addition, author Graham Allison, a former assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans, promotes in this book a comprehensive program to stop nuclear proliferation, seemingly well thought out.

The war on terror and the dangers of nuclear terrorism is given much attention in this book. Secretary of defense Rumsfeld is quoted as worried that we may be producing more terrorists than we are eliminating, in the war in Iraq. Allison, claiming our arrogant foreign policy is causing great harm in our international standing, has a right to be concerned. Record numbers of people in other countries distrust the United States, due largely to our mostly unilateral war in Iraq, and they wonder what we may attack next. Allison calls for the United States to develop and execute a 'humble foreign policy' and says the current Bush administration is doing quite the opposite. After reading this book, and other items, I am convinced we have literally made billions of people across the globe distrustful of the United States, and this does impact the war on terrorism. If we are not careful we will be the new 'evil empire' in the eyes of the world, if not already there. According to Allison, not only was the war in Iraq a waste, no WMDs were found, but it detracts from the war on terrorism, namely nuclear terrorism. Graham Allison goes into all of this in minute detail. In the last parts of the book Allison explains a proposed international program to reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism, interesting reading.

There are very few books I have read which have actually changed the way I live my life. This book is one of them. With solid facts, talented writing and attention to a singe topic, Graham Allison paints a vision of a possible future in which nuclear terrorism will become a part of American history.

Beginning with a chilling look at the effects of a 10 kiloton nuclear weapon being detonated in several American cities, Mr. Allison aims have the reader actually wrap his head around the idea of how life in our country would be radically altered if Al Qaeda or other terrorists are able to carry out their sworn vow to kill 4 million Americans.

However, things don't have to be as bad as they could be. Mr. Allison establishes a very coherent plan that would help minimize the risk of letting terrorists get their hands on one of these weapons. As one who works in Washington and dabbles in homeland security, I have personally vowed to spread the word of warning to the establishment based on this wake up call. I have also made it a priority to maintain adequate food storage and water supplies at my home outside of Washington - just in case.

Whether you are new to this subject or an old national security pro, "Nuclear Terrorism : The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe" is a compelling read that will set off alarm bells among its readers, and will hopefully lead us to be more vigilant in seeing that our government does everything it can to prevent this kind of attack.

Compared with similar books, such as Paul Williams' "Osama's Revenge," Graham Allison's work is simply a better read. The writing is more intelligent, and the book actually presents a solution rather than just paraphrasing the works of others. I would highly recommend this book.

September 11 provided us with the most visible evidence to date that there are those who wish to annihilate the United States. For those knowledgeable to this issue, this event was merely the public's first awakening to this issue. Why? Because of the catastrophic nature of the incident. The same building (World Trade Center) was victimized just a few years prior in what amounted to be "unsuccessful" and forgotten soon thereafter.

If we carry this line of thinking forward, Al Queda will look to other sensational events to awaken us to their Jihad. There is no bigger mechanism available than the use of nuclear terrorism. Why this has not yet caught the attention of our governmental leaders and that of every other country is unimaginable. Graham Allison's book goes a long way in educating us on the importance of this issue.

After reading this book you will feel a responsibility to thrust this issue on the national stage and to make sure ever person understands the salient points made in this book. Unless we act now the verdict is clear: it is not if it will happen, it is when.

Read this book and make sure others do the same.

In the first Presidential debate, both candidates described nuclear terrorism as the biggest single threat to the U.S. So after I saw the author on CNN, I decided to buy this book.

This is the best book out there on nuclear terrorism.

Every chapter in Part 1 (describing the threat) told me something about nuclear terrorism that I did not know, e.g. that there are six non-Al Qaeda terrorist groups who have tried to get nuclear material or that the Defense Department has lost enough nuclear weapons to have a code name for the problem - "broken arrows."

But the major reason to read this book is Part 2. Dr. Allison actually has a strategy and a program for preventing nuclear terrorism that seems hard to execute but not impossible a chokehold approach. If we can get our government to act soon, we can protect ourselves and our children from at least one horror.

Graham Allison's "Nuclear Terrorism" is the scariest book I have read in a long time. The first 2/3 of the book is a carefully documented and extremely readable demolition of all the myths that might comfort us about why nuclear terrorism is unlikely. It is so well done and so important that before I had finished the copy I borrowed from the library, I bought two more online, including one to send my congressman. Allison has done a great service by calling attention to this urgent problem.

Unfortunately, the last third of the book is disappointing. Rather than call for the worldwide abolition of nuclear weapons, Allison's "solutions" will perpetuate the status quo, with current nuclear powers retaining their nuclear oligopoly. This not only violates Article VI of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (and hence the U.S. Constitution), it sends a message that we believe the use or the threat of use of nuclear weapons is morally acceptable and militarily useful. This wrong message undermines efforts to prevent proliferation to other countries. In fact, the US would be a big winner if nuclear weapons were abolished. As Bernard Lown, co-founder of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) wrote in 1996:

"One can puzzle with dismay that the industrialized nations are not leading the pack in the quest for nuclear abolition...Their long-range security is categorically undermined by the spread of nuclearism. Nuclear weapons afford them scant advantage as they already command awesome military establishments capable of projecting their might speedily to the remote corners of the earth." (From the forward to the book "Crude Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and the Terrorist Threat," available free on the IPPNW the website.: http://www.ippnw.org/NukeTerrorism01.html)

In order to galvanize the population of the world to work together to prevent nuclear catastrophe, we need a goal and a message capable of inspiring people. Allison does a great job of sounding the alarm, but IPPNW's goal and message are more inspirational.

Even though this readable and compelling book has received a lot of publicity, Ferguson and Potter's "The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism" actually provides more in-depth information and more useful analysis. In particular, "Four Faces" offers much more extensive analysis of the radiological weapon and nuclear facility threats, which are far more likely to occur than the nuclear explosions that form Allison's main focus.

Allison ferrets out telling anecdotes and lurid details that illustrate the refractory and yet possibly manageable nature of the threat. I found his accounts of the Chechen and Libyan cases particularly insightful. And one can only concur with his overall arguments about how nuclear terrorism should receive a much higher priority in terms of executive attention and federal spending. So the book offers considerable value as an up-to-date overview for the non-expert reader.

In terms of deeper analysis, although the book covers a wide swathe of international issues, it manages not even to mention the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and U.S. policy toward it. So in a broader sense, the analysis remains merely tactical.