The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices [Paperback]

Kurt M. Campbell (Editor), Robert J. Einhorn (Editor), Mitchell Reiss (Editor)

Book Description

Publication Date: July 2004 | ISBN-10: 0815713312 | ISBN-13: 978-0815713319

More than half a century after the advent of the nuclear age, is the world approaching a tipping point that will unleash an epidemic of nuclear proliferation? Today many of the building blocks of a nuclear arsenalscientific and engineering expertise, precision machine tools, software, design informationare more readily available than ever before. The nuclear pretensions of so-called rogue states and terrorist organizations are much discussed. But how firm is the resolve of those countries that historically have chosen to forswear nuclear weapons? A combination of changes in the international environment could set off a domino effect, with countries scrambling to develop nuclear weapons so as not to be left behindor to develop nuclear hedge capacities that would allow them to build nuclear arsenals relatively quickly, if necessary. The Nuclear Tipping Point examines the factors, both domestic and transnational, that shape nuclear policy. The authors, distinguished scholars and foreign policy practitioners with extensive government experience, develop a framework for understanding why certain countries may originally have decided to renounce nuclear weaponsand pinpoint some more recent country-specific factors that could give them cause to reconsider. Case studies of eight long-term stalwarts of the nonproliferation regimeEgypt, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Syria, Turkey, and Taiwanflesh out this framework and show how even these countries might be pushed over the edge of a nuclear tipping point. The authors offer prescriptions that would both prevent such countries from reconsidering their nuclear option and avert proliferation by others. The stakes are enormous and successis far from assured. To keep the tipping point beyond reach, the authors argue, the international community will have to act with unity, imagination, and strength, and Washington's leadership will be essential. Contributors include Leon Feurth, George Washington University; Ellen Laipson, Stimson Center; Thomas W. Lippman, Middle East Institute; Jenifer Mackby, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Derek J. Mitchell, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Jonathan D. Pollack, U.S. Naval War College; Walter B. Slocombe, Caplin and Drysdale; and Tsuyoshi Sunohara, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Kurt M. Campbell is senior vice president and director of international security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and the Pacific.

Robert J. Einhorn is senior adviser in the international security program at the CSIS and former assistant secretary for noproliferation at the Department of State.

Mitchell Reiss was director of the Reves Center for International Studies at the College of William and Mary.

Product Details

• Paperback: 367 pages
• Publisher: Brookings Institution Press (July 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0815713312
• ISBN-13: 978-0815713319
• Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 6 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #295,471 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #87 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Current Events > Arms Control

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Insightful !, February 23, 2005

By 

Rolf Dobelli "getAbstract" (Switzerland) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Hardcover)

This book stems from a three-year-long collaboration between the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Reves Center for International Studies at the College of William and Mary. Scholars studied eight countries currently committed to nonproliferation - Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan - to determine what scenarios might make them change their minds. The objective was to study how the nuclear genie might get out of the bottle - but it also indicates ways to keep it contained. The book intentionally does not focus on proliferator states, such as North Korea or Iran. Even with that omission, we recommend it for the stark realities its research uncovers. One is that non-proliferating nations all look to the U.S. for reassurance that the world will stay safe for those without nuclear weapons. Another is that the world must stop Iran and North Korea's atomic ambitions, lest a tipping point occurs that would provoke other nations to conclude that their security requires swinging the biggest stick.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars more proliferation?, February 19, 2005

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W Boudville (Terra, Sol 3) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Paperback)

In the midst of headlines about possible nuclear weapons being acquired by rogue states, this recent book is quite timely. It addresses what is a slightly puzzling issue. Why, 60 years after the use of nuclear weapons, are there still relatively few nations armed with these weapons? Some projections made in the 1960s postulated that by now, if we hadn't blown ourselves up, there would be scores of nuclear armed nations.

Part of the book explains why this did not come to pass. But the more urgent analysis is devoted to suggesting how in fact it might still come to be. The politics of regional rivalries in east Asia, south Asia and the Middle East is studied. There are knock-on effects of one nation possessing such arms, triggering a frantic effort by its neighbours to also do so.

One thing to note is that the technical obstacles are less than ever before. While still exceedingly nontrivial, the case of Pakistan illustrates how a moderately sized developing country can develop such weapons, given sufficient will and resources.

2 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars A study on several countries nuclear choices, March 6, 2007

By 

BernardZ (Melbourne, vic Australia) - See all my reviews

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This review is from: The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Paperback)

To build an atomic bomb, you only need 1940s technology. Not only that, but as the book points out to many countries, a nuclear defence is cheaper than a conventional one. Many states like Israel's nuclear weapons give it a defence that it could never get from a conventional one. As the book further points out the world does not punish states going nuclear much. So why have so few states gone for a nuclear defense?

It is a fascinating issue. This book takes us through several countries and discussion that they had in this question. The important debates on getting nuclear weapons in most countries is hidden even in democratic countries. For example, few people in the US, Britain, France or Israel knew of their country nuclear weapons program until they had a bomb. So many of the debates, I felt were guesswork of what people were likely to say.

Two problems with the book, I though was looking at the physical weapon rather than many states today, which are virtual nuclear states. They could have a bomb in a few months if they wanted it. We probably have a more nuclear proliferation then they admit.

The second it did not discuss the vulnerability a state has to nuclear weapons, for example, Egypt with the Nile. A few conventual and nuclear weapon blasts and most of Egypt's water is cut off. Maybe the Egyptians' have sound military reasons to not have nuclear weapons.

Finally, the book does not fill me with hope. North Korea has a bomb, and it appears that Iran will have one soon. Both from reading the book will cause ripple effects in the neighboring countries if they doubt the US nuclear commitment to them.