Customer Reviews

The Numbers Game: The Commonsense Guide to Understanding Numbers in the News, in Politics, and inLife

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As a Statistics teacher, I jump when I see that a new book on this subject has come out. The study of how numbers are understood and misunderstood by the public can be very fascinating indeed. Unfortunately, this book ranks slightly below average in a crowded field. Here's why:

1) The book doesn't offer a whole lot of innovative thinking on the subject. Some examples and phraseology were new, and I especially enjoyed the chapter called "The Whole Elephant" (on the foolishness of quantitative goal setting by heads of companies), but much has been rehashed in other books in some form or another.
2) I wasn't entertained. The book lacked humor, and while not what I would outright call dry, it didn't exactly come alive either.
3) Most examples were from studies related to Great Britain. This may or may not bother some people.

On the flip side, it is a very quick read, with independent chapters that can be read in 10-15 minute bites. Not a bad bathroom book, I suppose.

Better books on the subject, or related subjects: The Drunkard's Walk, Innumeracy, Damned Lies and Statistics, 200% of Nothing, Predictably Irrational, Chances Are

There are several books in publication today that strive to guide the general reader through mazes of number-based information; their main purpose is to impart to the general public the ability to ask the right questions and make sense of the information being presented. Some of these books are quite enjoyable while others can be a bit dry. I would place this one in the former category. Having said that, it should be pointed out that the specific topics that are discussed vary greatly throughout the book; as a result, a given reader may find some chapters much more interesting than others. This was certainly true in my case; for example, I found the chapter on risk to be particularly fascinating. The writing style is clear, friendly, authoritative, accessible and engaging. While math/statistics buffs may be the ones to be most attracted to this book, it should be noted that it can be enjoyed by everyone, i.e., the authors' target audience.

This book is fantastic; Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot have really captured the essence of what Numbers are all about. Here are three of my favorite quotes from the book:

"Uncertainty is a fact of life. Numbers, often being precise, are sometimes used as if they overcame it. A vital principle to establish is that many numbers will be uncertain, and we should not hold that against them. Even 90 percent accuracy might imply more uncertainty than you would expect. The human lesson here is that since life is not certain, and since we know this from experience, we should not expect numbers to be any different. They can clarify uncertainty, if used carefully, but they cannot beat it."

"Being fallible does not make numbers useless, and the fact that most of the positives are false positives does not mean the test is no good. It has at least narrowed the odds, even if with nothing like 90 percent certainty. Those who are positive are still unlikely to have breast cancer, but they are a little more likely than before they were tested. Those who are negative are now even less likely to have it than before they were tested. So it is not that uncertainty means absolute ignorance, nor that the numbers offer certainty, rather that they can narrow the scope of our ignorance."

"We accuse statisticians of being overly reductive and turning the world into numbers, but statisticians know well enough how approximate and fallible their numbers are. It is the rest of us who perform the worst reductionism whenever we pretend the numbers give us excessive certainty. Any journalist who acts as if the range of uncertainty does not matter, and reports only one number in place of a spread of doubt, conspires in a foolish delusion for which no self-respecting statistician would ever fall."

I hope these quotes connote a general flavor of the skepticism that Blastland and Dilnot are conveying. I found the book terrific and think everyone should read it. I would also recommend reading the books On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not and Your Brain Is (Almost) Perfect: How We Make Decisions. They fall within this same general category and are equally as good.

The authors have done us all a great favor - they've written a book that will help make media consumers less credulous. In the current news climate, making sense of numbers is more important than ever.

It is an enjoyable read as well.

Usually, I love books that illustrate everyday uses of statistics in everyday life - especially those related to economics or politics.

The authors attempt to make some statistics concepts (causation, average/median/mode, risk) more understandable particularly when we hear them used in the media. In addition, the authors try to highlight when these concepts are misused or abused to illustrate a point. Both of these goals, while very worthwhile, are not attained in the most interesting manner.

Many of the examples are not described in the same memorable way as those included in such classics as Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking and The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. In both of those books, the author more deeply examines the issues and uses memorable writing to explore the issues. While I would give the authors of this book credit for using statistics terms, the fact that the examples are less memorable is a big drawback.

If you walk away from this book concluding that the media and political leaders improperly use statistics, that's a good thing. Skepticism is healthy when it comes to numbers and "facts" (so called by those making the strong statements).

You'll enjoy this book if you want to understand some basic concepts as to how statistics can ineffectively "prove" statements. If you have at least some background in statistics, economics or political science, I'm not sure this book breaks new ground.

Everyday the media throws all sorts of numbers towards us, whether it be data from polls, clinical trials, or government budgets. "The Numbers Game" does a very good job of explaining and making those numbers accessible and understandable to the average person. It is a math book that is funny and entertaining to read, and encourages a healthy skepticism about statistics.

Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot do a good job on putting together chapters about certain techniques and expectations in, as they put it "bringing numbers down to earth." They make no qualms and are very capable of presenting a self-help guide in being able to analyze these numbers.

However, for most US readers, they may have some trouble understanding some of the examples that are used in the book. But this is not a deterrent. Overall, "The Numbers Game opens up a lot of perspective on ways that people may not have viewed the world previously, and how it is essential that the average person is able better understand and put into good use how to consume, interpret, and analyze data when presented with them.

In conclusion, I would recommend this book to anyone. It is a easy read, and the chapters are divided up accordingly in short 10-15 pages. In addition, it is a lot of fun to read and very informative.

In areas as diverse as health and longevity, government budgets and spending, salaries and contracts for pro athletes, and much more, whenever we listen to the news, we very often hear talk of numbers and figures.

Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot show the reader how to be less intimidated and make more sense of the numbers we hear on a daily basis in "The Numbers Game." The authors use examples from health care, the economy, education, taxes and income, and other areas to walk through how we can be misled when we have an improper view of concepts such as chance and probability, regression to the mean, comparisons, averages, sampling, and correlation and causation, and the authors also discuss whether some seemingly big numbers are really all that big.

Readers who improve their acumen in the area of numbers by applying the principles in this relatively short book can expect to become more resistant to the much of the hysteria and sensationalism often promulgated by the media.

To give my thoughts the proper perspective, I have no formal background in statistics or mathematics beyond basic college courses. While reading a book on theoretical physics, I came across a list of suggested further reading on numbers and after a while reading various reviews on amazon, came across this book and thought it would be a good start to catching myself up.
For me, this was a very simple book, in that I didn't gain any particular knowledge about the conceptual use of numbers in the media. I thought it was good for two purposes. One would be the examples provided. The examples do an excellent job of making the concepts more tangible for the average reader and are honestly just interesting. Two would be a reminder to read critically when it comes to numbers in the media. We all tend to learn things and then forget as time goes on and the lesson of critical reading is one example. Another positive is that this is an easy read with short accessible chapters.
I would have preferred something more robust and more technical, but that isn't this book and on its merits, it is quite good as an introduction for someone who never realized how numbers are used in the media - I specifically thought of high schoolers but, as I mentioned, a refresher for adults is always useful, particularly given the modern examples used.

This book is not for professional mathematicians, but for the common man who is intrigued about the use (and abuse) of Mathematics every day and every where. Its witty, surprising, and very informative. You will never look at numerical data the same way again.

It is a science books, though not in the usual sense. This book really cover nearly every sort of abuse or weakness of numbers and statistical facts that we are exposed in everyday living. Every chapter discuss one scheme to another, in intuitive manner, so we could get the grasp of the truth. Also it serves as a guide to counter such abuse in media or any other part of life. In short, it is a really good life skill guide that everyone should read.

One thing that may cause problem is that it sometimes gives unfamiliar example to US readers, though this issue have been given many effort to be taken care of. I'm not American and I could portray the system, since Indonesian's is something between them. But to many US readers, this may well cause confusion.

Overall, reading this book well worth your time. Also, as well as entertaining, it gives you important insight and life skill guide in the face of the abuse of numbers by some parties.