Obliquity: Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly [Hardcover]

John Kay (Author)

Book Description

Release date: April 14, 2011

A leading economist charts the indirect road to happiness and wealth.

Using dozens of practical examples from the worlds of business, politics, science, sports, literature, even parenting, esteemed economist John Kay proves a notion that feels at once paradoxical and deeply commonsensical: The best way to achieve any complex or broadly defined goal-from happiness to wealth to profit to preventing forest fires-is the indirect way. As Kay points out, we rarely know enough about the intricacies of important problems to tackle them head-on. And our unpredictable interactions with other people and the world at large mean that the path to our goals-and sometimes the goals themselves-will inevitably change. We can learn about our objectives and how to achieve them only through a gradual process of risk taking and discovery-what Kay calls obliquity.

Kay traces this pathway to satisfaction as it manifests itself in nearly every aspect of life. The wealthiest people-from Andrew Carnegie to Bill Gates-achieved their riches through a passion for their work, not because they set materialistic goals. Research has shown that companies whose goal (as declared in mission statements) is excellent products or service are more profitable than companies whose stated goal is increasing profits. In the personal realm, a large body of evidence shows that parenthood is on a daily basis far more frustrating than happy- making. Yet parents are statistically happier than nonparents. Though their short-term pleasure is often thwarted by the demands of childrearing, the subtle-oblique-rewards of parenthood ultimately make them happier.

Once he establishes the ubiquity of obliquity, Kay offers a wealth of practical guidance for avoiding the traps laid by the direct approach to complex problems. Directness blinds us to new information that contradicts our presumptions, fools us into confusing logic with truth, cuts us off from our intuition (which is the subconscious expression of our experience), shunts us away from alternative solutions that may be better than the one we're set on, and more. Kay also shows us how to acknowledge our limitations, redefine our goals to fit our skills, open our minds to new data and solutions, and otherwise live life with obliquity.

This bracing manifesto will convince readers-or confirm their conviction-that the best route to satisfaction and success does not run through the bottom line.

Editorial Reviews

Review

'A characteristic John Kay production. It is a pleasure to read...with wit and humour, too. He integrates economics and philosophy, operations research and sociology, political science and psychology. It is a useful corrective to the patent remedies of those snake-oil salesmen who display their wares at airport bookshops...a thought-provoking, and even useful read.' Howard Davies, Financial Times --This text refers to an alternate Hardcover edition.

About the Author

John Kay is a visiting professor at the London School of Economics and a fellow of St John's College, Oxford. As research director and director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies he established it as one of Britain's most respected think tanks. Since then he has been a professor at the London Business School and the University of Oxford, where he was the first director of the Said Business School. He is a regular columnist for the Financial Times and the author of numerous books, including The Truth About Markets and The Long and the Short of It. --This text refers to an alternate Hardcover edition.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 240 pages
• Publisher: Penguin Press HC, The; First Edition edition (April 14, 2011)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1594202788
• ISBN-13: 978-1594202780
• Product Dimensions: 8.5 x 5.6 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (20 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #391,706 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

42 of 43 people found the following review helpful

3.0 out of 5 stars How to achieve goals in a complex world - more thought than action May 12, 2011

By Mark P. McDonald TOP 1000 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

Obliquity refutes the idea that complex systems can be understood in enough detail to be actively managed no matter what the experts say. John Kay's point concentrates on the folly of control and the hubris of those who believe that they can directly architect, direct and dictate changes to achieve their goals.

Obliquity rests on the argument that the world is too complex, dynamic and ever changing to control in the way that most business leaders think. Leaders want direct action - raise profits, or enter new markets - that are often lead to failure for the simple reason that they are too direct. In place of directly pursuing goals, Kay recommends leaders choose to obliquity.

Obliquity describes the process of achieving complex objectives indirectly. Things cannot be understood well enough or remain stable long enough for a direct plan to work. The central idea of the book can be summed up

"If you are clear about your high-level goals and knowledgeable enough about the systems their achievement depends on, then you can solve problems in a direct way. But goals are often vague, interactions unpredictable, complex extensive, problem descriptions incomplete, the environment uncertain. That is where obliquity comes into play."

Kay's book concentrates on discussing the different aspects of an indirect approach and the relative inability of pre-planned and controlled solutions to lead to results. Kay covers different aspects of this issue through a series of focused chapters. The discussion tends toward an academic view. Because of this, I would recommend reading the book a particular way:

Chapter 1 -- Obliquity - why are objectives are often best pursued directly.
Chapter 18 - Order without design
Chapter 19 - Very well then, I contradict myself
Chapter 20 - Dodgy dossiers

Then I would read the book from chapter 2 through chapter 17.

The book positions itself as a business book, but it is more of a study and observations concerning the nature of managing in an environment of complex systems. This book is in the vain of Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan." Business readers will find the material indirect and presented in a way that requires greater reflection before it can be put into practice.

Overall this book is recommended for readers who want to study the nature of action, ideas and complex systems. Readers who favor a discussion based and thought-based argument will find this book appealing. Less so for people who are looking for new ideas on how to lead and reach goals in a complex environment.

Strengths

> Obliquity and the idea that goals in a complex world are best achieved indirectly are interesting and thought provoking. Kay's presentation and argument of these points in straight forward language and examples. He covers a range of topics and angles concerning this central idea.

> The connection between the type and level of complexity we face in the modern world and the ways in which we pursue goals was helpful at helping to redefine the fundamentals of leadership and action.

> Franklin's Gambit was a plus and gave me a new tool to think about what is going on and why things are shaping up a particular way.

> Kay's use of architecture as an example was refreshing. His point is that direct approaches and master planning can lead to cities and buildings that look great on paper, but are basically unlivable. He points to planned cities like Brasilia, but I have experienced the same in Canberra as well as Capitol Hill area in Washington. They look great on paper, but nobody actually `lives' there, rather they live in the near suburbs that emerged rather than being planned.

Challenges

> Kay's analysis and conclusions are qualitative and self evident in nature. He makes his argument by amassing examples where the `direct' approach has failed and lays them against descriptions where leaders were supposedly indirect. These positive examples are explained soley in the context of obliquity without attributing the leaders behavior to any other idea, motivation or context. An example is his discussion of FDR and the New Deal, which he sees as obliquity. However, looking at the initiatives in the New Deal you find direct goals and objectives. Sure there are multiple initiatives, not all of them worked, but they were hardly indirect.

> Kay's argument falls down quite easily with a simple question and idea. The question, posed to one practicing obliquity is "why?" and the idea is that a complex world requires a more complex approach to leadership than simply charging up a hill. The answer to why these goals would elicit a direct response. Such a response turns obliquity from a concept of problem solving and leadership into the observation that complexity requires multi-part goals. Something that is far less revolutionary.

> The idea that a complex world requires multiple, flexible and adaptive leadership is not new and by wrapping that simple idea into an academic term - obliquity - he separates some helpful advice from an audience that needs it most.

Overall the book's title, term, idea and concepts promise more than they deliver, particularly for readers who are looking for new tools, techniques and ways of thinking about the world and how you lead in it. The observation that complexity and dynamism undermine command and control is important. As is the answer o purusing multiple adaptive plans that require leaders to add and subtract based on experience and progress. Those are helpful, but the book's approach and tone is too academic, too removed from managers to either directly or indirectly deliver on its promise.

If you are a student of complexity, if you enjoy a thought provoking and academic discussion, then you will find value in this book and enjoy it. If you are a manager looking to get tools, techniques, approaches you can use, then you will find this book wanting.

The author would argue that seeking such direct things as tools is a weak approach that is bound to fail and rather what is required is a new philosophy of problem solving. He would be right, but you cannot address an issue without taking action and this book needed more support for how you act, even indirectly to achieve goals in a complex world.

32 of 33 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars The mess that can be created by problem solving- and how obliquity lets you work round this, April 14, 2011

By Dr. Nicholas P. G. Davies

Format:Hardcover

I want to take a very direct approach to reviewing this book. This is because writing a book review is a well contained, finite task.

But this direct approach does not work well on larger scale tasks and goals. And that is Kay's key point in this book- the direct approach will work reasonably across short range finite tasks, but most of our real goals and desires are complex, and far from clearly defined. They have to be approached indirectly, often in small steps, and with some awareness that what we think we want may not actually be what we want when we get somewhere near it. We may only discover our true goal by starting out in its general direction, and refining our criteria for success as we go along. Kay sees true problem solving as humble, adaptive and iterative, and accepting of the risk of events changing everything. It sees consistency as an unusual and possibly maladaptive behaviour.

He is largely writing against direct problem solving, and against the arrogance of one person claiming to be able to encompass everyone's needs within his scheme. So for example the folly of Le Corbusier in wanting to design "a machine for living", or economists being disappointed when the subjects of their experiments failed to live up to their models of their behaviour, and the idiocies of planned economies are well exposed. To some extent Kay is apologising for his earlier life when he was a consultant with a model.

The affinity between the iterative adaptation described by Why Evolution Is True evolution in biology and the iterative adaptations made by the multiple actors in a free market is well drawn. In this Kay is drawing on his useful previous work in Truth About Markets To some extent evolution is an economic model about allocation of scarce resources applied in biology. The basic message of Darwin's "natural selection" and Adam Smith's "invisible hand" is that adaptation is smarter than design in achieving viable organisations and organisms.

Kay describes goal achievement at three levels, namely high level objectives, intermediate states and basic actions. He uses the example of three stonemasons building a cathedral. When asked what they are doing one replies, "I am cutting this stone to shape", the second says, "I am building a great cathedral" and the third, "I am working for the glory of God." All three are working together towards the same end, but their motivations and perceptions of their work may well be very different.

I liked this book. It is a good reminder of the problems of excessive problem solving, and the problems of our models of reality clouding our view of that reality. He apologises for his and other economists past over reliance on models, and for their late realisation that the people were not going to change to fit the economist's models. You might be feeling smug that you are not an economist at this point but it is likely that we all have our own similar versions of such absurdity.

Ackoff (e.g. inAckoff's Best: His Classic Writings on Management) drew a distinction between a "mess" and a "problem." He recommended simplifying messes into problems. Against this view Kay points out that most of the time the mess is the reality, and that simplifying it into problems often distorts it rather than helps solve it. And yet we have to try and make sense of everything. Kay in this book warns us of the risk of trying to make too much sense out of everything, and shows how we can render ourselves senseless by our efforts.

In the end I think there is a balance to be struck between the oblique approach described by Kay in this book, and the more direct approaches to goal achievement written by other authors. This book does us a great favour by describing the oblique approach well, and exposing many of the flaws of the direct approaches. The book is well written, short and has many worthwhile ideas in it to consider. I can recommend it to those of us who are working on goals and projects whether personally or professionally.

9 of 10 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Important Message, Dry Presentation April 24, 2011

By Book Fanatic TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover

Obliquity is the author's name for an indirect, iterative, adaptational, experimental approach to solving problems. This is opposed to the know-it-all gather up all the information and come up with a solution approach that is generally favored. This book is right on target with an important message and it is argued persuasively. Complex problems do not lend themselves to solution with the direct approach and the world would be a lot better place if we could convince politicians and corporations of this important reality.

I would recommend this book but the presentation style is pretty dry. The author selects a wide range of interesting examples that could be developed into an interesting narrative. However, it doesn't quite work out that way. His economic background really comes through his writing and it doesn't light a fire with the reader. So the content gets five stars but the presentation only gets a two or three.