The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls [Hardcover]

David W. Moore (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: September 1, 2008

On January 8, 2008, the date of the New Hampshire primary, media pollsters made their biggest prediction gaffe since dubbing Thomas Dewey a shoo-in to beat incumbent president Harry S. Truman. Eleven different polls forecast a solid win by Barack Obama; instead, Hillary Clinton took New Hampshire and recharged her candidacy. The months that followed only brought more dismal performances and contradictory results-undeniable evidence that something is terribly wrong with the polling industry today.

It's easy to spot the election polls that get it wrong. Equally misleading and often far more disastrous are polls misrepresenting public opinion on government policy. For instance, in the period leading up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, every major media poll showed substantial public support for a preemptive strike. In truth, there was no majority of Americans calling for war.

For the first time, David W. Moore—praised as a "scholarly crusader" by the New York Times—reveals that pollsters don't report public opinion, they manufacture it. And they do so at the peril of our democratic process. While critics cry foul over partisan favoritism in the mainstream media, what's really at work is a power bias that polls legitimate by providing the stamp of public approval.

Drawing on over a decade's experience at the Gallup Poll and a distinguished academic career in survey research, Moore describes the questionable tactics pollsters use to create poll-driven news stories-including force-feeding respondents, slanting question wording, and ignoring public ignorance on even the most arcane issues. More than proof that the numbers do lie, The Opinion Makers clearly and convincingly spells out how urgent it is that we make polls deliver on their promise to monitor, not manipulate, the pulse of democracy.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

In this succinct and damning critique of the pitfalls of public opinion reporting, Moore (How to Steal an Election), former senior editor of the Gallup Poll, argues that today's polls report the whims rather than the will of the people due to an intrinsic methodological problem: poll results don't differentiate between those who express deeply held views and those who have hardly, if at all, thought about an issue. Thus, respondents are compelled to provide an ill-considered, top-of-mind response because the method does not offer the option of expressing no opinion. In Moore's view, forced-choice polls not only distort public opinion, they create a legitimacy spin cycle, which damages U.S. democracy by manufacturing a public consensus to serve those in power. Keen and witty throughout, his prose turns bitter as he condemns journalists, insisting they are fully aware of the polling flaws but turn a blind eye because they like sharply divided groups and extreme reactions. However correct his claim and justified his outrage, his proposed antidote—that the media ought to enlighten its audience to its own ignorance—feels more like a pipe dream than a practical prescription. (Sept.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review

You will never regard political polls the same after reading David W. Moore's devastating inside account of their severe limitations and misapplications. This book should be required reading for journalists, political junkies, students, scholars and citizens.—Robert W. McChesney, author of The Political Economy of Media

"The next time your phone rings with questions from a pollster, beware. David Moore rings an alarm bell that democracy is endangered by the way the news media use public opinion polls. In chapter and verse, he exposes how false and misleading polling practices actually create public opinion and this, in turn, influences what government does. The Opinion Makers demonstrates what James Madison said two hundred years ago-a misinformed public becomes a threat to democracy."—Ben H. Bagdikian, author of The New Media Monopoly

"The account of how news stories drive polls should make us stop and ask whether the close relationship between the newsroom and polling operations is perhaps a bit too close. A must read."—W. Lance Bennett, director, Center for Communication and Civic Engagement University of Washington, Seattle

"We all know that the corporate press conducts its own opinion polls and keeps headlining the results as if such stuff were news. What we don't know is just how sloppy-and misleading-most of that work really is. In this important book, veteran pollster David Moore uses many harrowing examples from the recent past to meticulously note the many defects in such polling."—Mark Crispin Miller, Professor of Media, Culture, and Communication at
New York University, and author of Fooled Again: The Real Case for Electoral Reform

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 208 pages
• Publisher: Beacon Press (September 1, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0807042323
• ISBN-13: 978-0807042328
• Product Dimensions: 8.6 x 5.8 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (9 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,190,882 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

David W. Moore is a Senior Fellow with the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. He is a former Vice President of the Gallup Organization and Managing Editor of the Gallup Poll, where he worked from 1993 until 2006. Prior to joining Gallup, he was a Professor of Political Science at the University of New Hampshire, where he taught from 1972 to 1993. He was also founder and Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Previously, he served in the U.S. Army for ten years, after graduating from the United States Military Academy in 1962. His overseas tours of duty included South Korea and Vietnam.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

22 of 22 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A shocking look at how pollsters measure public opinion, August 26, 2008

By 

EAD - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls (Hardcover)

In his sharp-tongued and candid report of political polling methods, David Moore gives a stunning analysis of what poll results truly reflect--and it isn't the accurate measure of public opinion suggested by the neatly packaged pie charts and bar graphs we are so accustomed to seeing in the headline news of national television networks, newspapers, and news magazines. Moore places responsibility for the inaccuracy of public opinion polls on the shoulders of the media, whose strategic questioning methods fade away voter apathy and indecision--the "don't know" or "have no opinion" categories--to falsely create politically charged responses. Most frightening is Moore's argument that "public opinion" is made to reflect and justify the current policies of the politically powerful--an apparent contradiction to what polls claim to do, which is hold policy makers accountable for acknowledging popular will. Moore presents his sometimes scathing critique with an authority informed by his former position as the senior editor of the Gallup Poll. His humor adds allure to this fascinating look at the relationship between media conglomerates and the pollsters who serve them. This is an enlightening read for anyone who wants to stay informed--you will never look at polls with a cursory glance or anything less than a discerning eye again.

16 of 16 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Interesting Examination of How Pollsters get it So Wrong, August 30, 2008

By 

Frederick S. Goethel "wildcatcreekbooks" (Central Valley, CA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls (Hardcover)

For a number of years now I have wondered how polling organizations can get the numbers so spectacularly wrong and still stay in business. The New Hampshire primary is one example where none of the numbers seemed to line up with the actually results of the election.

The author, a former professor of political science and a former vice president of one of the nation's largest and most well known polling operations explains, in great detail, the problems with polling as it is done today. In addition, he explains why the media is so cozy with the polling groups and how this tends to cause massive distortion in the numbers. Finally, along the way, the history of "scientific" polling is discussed from it's formation to the current day.

The author writes in an easy to understand style that takes a fairly complex issue and digests it into material that any reader will be able to read. Far from dull, the author has a biting edge to his writing and is passionate about the subject. In addition, the author manages to keep the information neutral, so he isn't pointing fingers at any one political side; he manages to have enough on everyone to go around. This should be read by every person who plans to vote and follows the polls. You will never look at the information in the same way again.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Insight and Accessibility, September 23, 2008

By 

Jeffrey L. Seglin "Seglin" (Boston, MA USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls (Hardcover)

Moore has written a terrific book about polling from an insider's perspective. His honesty and insight provide any reader with a window into how polling works and how they can be manipulated to questionable effect. The book is at once a scintillating and also a troubling look into the world of polls and is must-reading for anyone who wants to make sense of the role polls play in our lives from how we vote to how we live.