Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises [Paperback]

John L. Petersen (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: December 22, 1999

Out of the Blue is an easy-to-read guide to anticipating and preparing for high-impact, life-altering events.

Product Details

• Paperback: 232 pages
• Publisher: Madison Books; 2 edition (December 22, 1999)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1568331355
• ISBN-13: 978-1568331355
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 5.9 x 0.5 inches
• Shipping Weight: 10.9 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,189,091 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

John L. Petersen, a leading futurist, founded and presently heads The Arlington Institute, a Washington, DC-area think tank that studies global futures. He is the editor of FUTUREdition and the author of Out of the Blue: Anticipating Wild Cards and Other Future Surprises, and The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future. His often unconventional perspectives on what lies ahead are the product of having worked in the military, for the National Security Council at the White House, in business, real estate development, advertising, marketing, and the nonprofit world.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Out of the Box Thinking, Well-Structured, September 8, 2003

By 

Robert D. Steele (Oakton, VA United States) - See all my reviews
(TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (HALL OF FAME REVIEWER)   

This review is from: Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (Paperback)

Edit of 21 Dec 07 to add link.

I recommend this book, updated from the 1997 version, very highly. It is a well-structured look at all sorts of "jokers" or "wild cards", and I particularly like the methodology for calculating impact across nine factors (rate of change, reach, vulnerability, outcome, timing, opposition, power factor, foresight factor, and quality), all combining to create the tenth "impact index". After a short introduction, each major "earth-shaking" wild card is covered with two pages of clear graphics that are easy to absorb.

See the 2007 book, Seeing the Invisible: National Security Intelligence in an Uncertain Age