Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil [Paperback]

David Goodstein (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: February 17, 2005

Science tells us that an oil crisis is inevitable. Why and when? And what will our future look like without our favorite fuel?

Our rate of oil discovery has reached its peak and will never be exceeded; rather, it is certain to decline—perhaps rapidly—forever forward. Meanwhile, over the past century, we have developed lifestyles firmly rooted in the promise of an endless, cheap supply. In this book, David Goodstein, professor of physics at Caltech, explains the underlying scientific principles of the inevitable fossil fuel shortage we face. He outlines the drastic effects a fossil fuel shortage will bring down on us. And he shows that there is an important silver lining to the need to switch to other sources of energy, for when we have burned up all the available oil, the earth's climate will have moved toward a truly life-threatening state. With its easy-to-grasp explanations of the science behind every aspect of our most urgent environmental policy decisions, Out of Gas is a handbook for the future of civilization.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Everyone agrees we will run out of fossil fuels someday-Goodstein, a Caltech professor, argues it will be sooner rather than later based on the petrochemical data available. In this alarming little book, portions of which were originally published in a bioethics journal, Goodstein explains with limited jargon that we will completely exhaust oil supplies within 10 years. He warns that we have reached, or even surpassed Hubbert's Peak, the moment when we have consumed half of all oil known to exist and will likely use the rest up even faster, due to ever-increasing demand and decreasing discoveries. What will we do when all the oil is gone? Goodstein outlines two scenarios, both chilling. In the worst case, we might run out of oil so fast that the only affordable alternative is coal. In this throwback future, Goodstein writes, "the greenhouse effect that results eventually tips Earth's climate into a new state hostile to life." The best case scenario involves a methane-based fuel economy that would bridge the gap until we could build up nuclear and solar power sources to meet our long-term needs. Goodstein admits that some geologists disagree that we will deplete all oil sources within this decade, but even conservative calculations predict the price of oil will increase beyond the reach of most people within the foreseeable future. "No matter what else happens," Goodstein states, "this is the century in which we must learn to live without fossil fuels." He maintains a cautious optimism about alternative energy sources, but readers may find little comfort imagining nuclear fission energy as the next best thing.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

From Booklist

In this pithy primer on what might replace oil as civilization's fuel, a Caltech professor explains the fundamentals of energy, engines, and entropy for a mass audience. Goodstein opens with a quote from a geologist who predicted in the 1950s, to derision, that U.S. oil reserves would inevitably be depleted. Applying this reasoning to global reserves, Goodstein warns not only that the last drop will be pumped by 2100 at the latest, but also that peak production, estimated to occur in the current decade, marks the beginning of a global shortage. So, start planning postpetroleum technology now, exhorts the author. With exceptional conciseness, he presents the constraints nature will impose on any fuel-technology combination, beginning with explanations of exploitable sources of energy, continuing with how chemical and nuclear bonds hold and release energy, and arriving at how any engine, in principle, converts energy to work. Looking at fuels such as methane or hydrogen, Goodstein sees not panaceas but, rather, life support until a future arrives that lives on sunlight and nuclear fusion. Gilbert Taylor
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 144 pages
• Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company; 1st Pub Norton Ppbk 2005 edition (February 17, 2005)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0393326470
• ISBN-13: 978-0393326475
• Product Dimensions: 8.3 x 5.6 x 0.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 4.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (41 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #88,855 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #56 in Books > Business & Investing > Industries & Professions > Oil & Energy

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

141 of 160 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars Disjointed, but accurate information, March 2, 2004

By 

CRC (Richardson, Texas USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil (Hardcover)

I have been researching the topic of oil depletion by reading (& buying!) many books. I was hoping that this small volume would provide a nice, condensed, well-argued version to hand to friends and family. I was wrong.

While Goodstein lays out the usual scenario regarding oil depletion and correctly explains differences between "remaining years" via the Hubbert's Peak method and the R/P method, much of the information is seemingly unconnected.

Yes, I know that the Laws of Thermodynamics apply. But I have read much clearer explanations of those laws in Freshman Physics in college. While "pithy", his explanations are not exactly clear or self-evident to the casual reader. And, once Thermodynamics are explored, the reader is left wondering WHY was all that explained? How does that connect to oil depletion? I know, because I have been studying this in other books, but this book does not link the theoretical explanations clearly with the problem of a shortage in oil production, available energy, etc.

I have read books that were longer and more clear on the subject; books that are a faster, easier and more understandable read than this brief volume. The first I would recommend is "The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies" by Richard Heinberg. This is an excellent well-rounded review of all issues regarding oil depletion.

For the reader who would like to explore the geological aspects in more depth (why can't we explore for more? what about making existing fields more productive? how is oil formed and where is it found?), I would recommend "Hubbert's Peak" by Kenneth Deffeyes, an associate of King Hubbert.

I'm sorry I paid so much for this slim little volume. Those books I recommended will cost you much less, are more clear, and easier to digest than this one.

Note: "Charts, graphs, photographs" in the Editors Review should be taken with a grain of salt. Yes, there are charts and illustrations, but they are simplistic. Some of the inserted illustrations are almost child-like.

33 of 34 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Thermodynamics for Dummies, August 5, 2004

By 

M. A. Plus "Advanced Atheist" (Mayer, Arizona) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil (Hardcover)

Goodstein's book stands out from others about Peak Oil I've read because he emphasizes the thermodynamic aspects of the oil problem. Economic reasoning about energy resources can be misleading because economics arose in the 18th Century and implicitly assumed the Newtonian scientific worldview before it incorporated the concepts of heat and entropy developed in the 19th Century. In other words, economics presupposes the existence of perpetual-motion machines. In the physical reality we have to live in, however, the "energy returned on energy invested" (EROEI) determines the true value of an energy resource. The good old-fashioned gushing oil wells we had 50-60 years ago had EROEI's of 100:1 or better, whereas current oil extraction has an EROEI around 10:1 on average and falling. When the EROEI of an energy resource falls down to 2:1 or less, the game is over because you aren't yielding enough energy to maintain an industrial civilization, much less to grow it. However we keep seeing physically ignorant economic analyses of alternative energy "sources" like ethanol-from-corn, Canadian oil sands, hydrogen fuel cells etc. that are really pseudoscientific because they have unity or worse EROEI's, even if the author can assign some arbitrary "price" to the final product that makes them seem "competitive" with real energy supplies.

Once you understand and integrate the thermodynamic aspect of the energy problem, you realize that the seemingly colossal reserve of oil sands in Alberta is useless and irrelevant if you can't extract it with a high enough EROEI. Moreover, any physically plausible way to capture a form of energy to replace oil will require a massive investment from the current and struggling stream of fossil fuels supplies for its construction, and it will have to generate an EROEI thereafter that is not only sufficient for our current needs, but also leaves plenty for building its replacements and further expanding the supply without having to dip into additional fossil fuels. Solar panels and windmills can't do this; the factories which make them don't run off of sunlight and wind, but are plugged into the regular electrical grid powered by coal, natural gas and nuclear. Until we can find the thermodynamic trap door that frees us from fossil fuels, we face the prospect of the "Dieoff" plausibly argued on certain Websites, especially considering that modern agriculture burns about ten calories of fossil fuels energy to deliver one calorie of food energy to our tables. Goodstein deserves a lot of credit for trying to get out the truth about the energy emergency, despite the cognitive resistance he's encountering from people who claim to be knowledgeable about physics yet who have been hypnotized by "economics."

28 of 29 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Other reviewers miss the point, July 12, 2005

By 

Bruce Kasanoff (Westport, CT United States) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil (Hardcover)

I have trouble understanding why so many people favor intellectual debate over meaningful action. We don't need longer books or more detailed technical explanations. Denser treatises won't heat our homes or transport us around the globe.

To me, the author's goal seems both simple and exceedingly well done: to paint an unvarnished picture of a world headed towards a disaster no one is taking seriously.

Like some other reviewers, I have been researching alternative energy sources to fossil fuels. At present, they are pitiful. This book explains why the alternatives are so bleak, and why finding better alternatives requires a huge undertaking for which we require a much stronger resolve than currently exists.

In my community, residents periodically "all" try to read the same book, and then discuss it. I wish everyone would read this book, not just in my town, but in towns and cities everywhere. It's understandable, direct, and extremely sobering. We don't need a better book on the subject; simply acting on this one would be a superb start.