"A Most Excellent Book: Having myself written about both peak oil and the capital finance fiasco, I hugely admired Ken Worth's succinct and clear treatment of these synergizing and escalating problems." --James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency, World Made By Hand and other titles.
"An excellent, pithy treatise on where the United States is heading in the next 20 years ... with a roadmap for how we can protect ourselves from trouble." -- Hewitt Heisermann, Jr., author It's Earnings That Count
From the Author
As of this writing in February 2012, global oil production (not including heating propane and ethane--which is used to make plastics) is still stagnant at 2005-08 levels, thus confirming the assertion that Peak Oil would be reached during the 2005 to 2012 time period, as argued in the book. We have had high oil prices for nearly seven years now, and oil production as not increased at all in response. Additional production of biofuels, tar sands and propane (all somehow included in common measures of "oil production") have resulted in minimally higher headline production numbers, but nothing like the significant additional quantities needed by a growing global economy.
Furthermore, major projects scheduled to bring additional quantities of crude oil to market in the years 2012-14 are not as significant as in prior years. 2012 may indeed be the year in which depletion of existing resources exceeds new production capacity and global oil production begins its long descent to economically insignificant quantities by the end of the century. The second major oil price shock of the Peak of Oil has probably already just begun.
The Model Portfolio (published June 30, 2010) invested in equities and commodities including gold and silver has increased in value by 30.2% between July 1, 2010, and February 21, 2012 (not including dividend income of approximately 1.7%.)
A diversified proftolio holding 50% S&P 500 stocks and 50% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX) increased in value only 17.4% over the same period (not including dividend and interest income of approximately 2%.)
The outperformance of the Model Portfolio compared to traditional investing methods will continue for reasons outlined in the book.