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Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression (2010-2030): A Survival Guide for Investors and Savers After Peak Oil Paperback – June 30, 2010
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"An excellent, pithy treatise on where the United States is heading in the next 20 years ... with a roadmap for how we can protect ourselves from trouble." -- Hewitt Heisermann, Jr., author It's Earnings That Count (2004).
From the Author
A diversified proftolio holding 50% S&P 500 stocks and 50% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX) increased in value only 17.4% over the same period (not including dividend and interest income of approximately 2%.)
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Top Customer Reviews
--James Howard Kunstler
Author of "The Long Emergency" and the post-oil novels, "World Made By Hand" and "The Witch of Hebron"
If you are inclined to believe that there is only so much "crude oil" in the world, and the "printing of money" is not without consequences, then you will enjoy this book. The author not only states his case, but backs it up with several portfolios that you can tailor to fit your need. I would say buying and reading this book, and then following through, with some action, could be the best investment decision we could all make over the foreseeable future. Investing in this book, is money and time well spent.
Two Examples where it lacks depth for big issues:
(1) the author forecasts time horizons for various states of the economy that result from peak oil and the bursting of our housing bubble/financial crisis. These are incredibly complex, dynmaic and interrelated issues whereby each 2 year "period" that the author calls for could be a chapter/discussion unto themselves. Whereas in this book they are called out by the author almost as a fact. For complex subjects I prefer to think of them as a hypothesis, understand the underlying arguments and then make my mind up as to the probabilities of these things happening. Again here they are explained as fact quickly and succinctly.
(2) Same thing goes for investments: the author recommends a 'peak oil portfolio.' The work is simplistic and superficial here. (I have been a "professional" investor for some time and NOTHING is absolute nor does one size fit all; investing is complex, risky, varies by liquidity, risk profile etc etc etc)
Positives/Summary: Having done nothing but critique the book for the last few hundred characters I will add that the book is a good overview of the peak oil problem, despite its brevity. For those who dont care to really understand the issues in depth and want an overview of the matter and how to position ones-self this may be a good primer to start with. Its general facts about the problem are accurate and its assessments and predictions reasonable. ..Some of us well-versued in the issue were just left a bit hungry for more.
The author paints the picture of peak oil in terms of $300 per barrel oil and $8 per gallon gasoline. One would have to take these as somewhat arbitrary, and, as the author points out, oil and its refined products will be subject to a long term trend of rising prices but with some short term downward movements within that overall trend.
Then the author discusses the problem of "peak debt", the massive debt being built up by the US government.
This is all discussed very much in the context of the United States. Europe suffers the same problems but, as appropriate in a book this short and to the point, the details of those problems as they relate to Europe are not discussed.
The debt chapter ends with the prediction of 10-15% inflation in the United States over the next couple decades.
One thing I like about the book is the assuredness and boldness with which the author makes such predictions, which happen to all pretty well coincide with my own beliefs based on extensive reading on the subject.
With regard to ways out of the debt, there is no beating around the bush. It will be done through inflation. I have become firmly convinced that peak oil and other factors render the prospect of "growing our way out" an impossibility, and to solve the problem through austerity would require Draconian cuts to government programs that are politically impossible.
The author seems to have reached the same conclusion.Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
There is no such thing as Peak Oil. There is only Peak Experience. There is no cause for alarm. Everything is Love, Peace and Understanding. Read morePublished on October 26, 2012 by Ashtar Command
As some reviewers have already noted before, this book is much too short to give a deep insight into the subject of Peak Oil. There are other books for this. Read morePublished on October 13, 2012 by Marcel Dupasquier
Whilst this is more a pamphlet than a book, there are two good reasons to purchase:
1) It is direct and sums up the situation - there's not much else to say on this - the next... Read more
The author makes some arguments that seem almost childish and one-sided on chapters 2 and 3. For example:
* Book: "What is needed is not just another Ghawar (Saudi... Read more
I suppose what I appreciate most about this book is that it isn't written primarily for mass appeal, but rather for an audience that already has the background knowledge on peak... Read morePublished on November 12, 2011 by Andrew Kempe
Mr. Worth's book on Peak Oil is divided into two, roughly equal-sized halves- Part 1: Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression lays out the books principal thesis on why the world... Read morePublished on August 28, 2011 by Erick K. Watson
The author gives a very compelling viewpoint on what the world will look like over the next forty years due to the terminal decline in oil prices and the unsustainable rise in... Read morePublished on August 18, 2011 by Lisa Baker