54 of 60 people found the following review helpful:
2.0 out of 5 stars
Rife with factual errors, June 19, 2008
This review is from: Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia (Hardcover)
As a student of Russian energy markets, I can confidently say that this book is rife with factual errors. Simple things like calling Iran one of the top gas exporters in the world (Iran doesn't export gas at all, it imports it, though Iran does have some of the largest gas reserves in the world); claiming that liquefied natural gas (LNG) often needs long-term contracts of "two years" to sell (usually needs contracts of 10-20 years); contending that OPEC regulated the oil market through production quotas from its founding in 1960 (the production quota system wasn't formally instituted until 1986-1987); etc. The conclusions that Goldman draws from his analysis are largely correct because he knows Russia well, but a lot of the (incorrect) detail he includes demonstrates an interested observer's - not an expert's - understanding of energy markets. If you are an interested observer, go ahead and buy this book. If you are a researcher, you should certainly corroborate the facts in this book.
Overall, the book is filled with detail, most of it correct but some not. I certainly learned something from reading it, things that had slipped under the radar, but I am not convinced that one should trust Marshall Goldman's grasp of energy markets.
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12 of 14 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Excellent Background!, July 24, 2008
This review is from: Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia (Hardcover)
"Petrostate" provides good insights into Russia's comeback after its late 1990s nadir, as well as an understanding of its economic-political strategies.
Russia regained its place as the world's largest oil producer in 2007; energy generates about 30% of Russia's GDP and 60% of its exports. Russia is a major energy provider to Europe and the U.S. The U.S. buys $10 billion of Russian petroleum, LUKoil bought nearly 3,000 U.S. filling stations from Getty Oil and Mobil. Gazprom also provides LNG to the U.S., via a swap arrangement with Algeria. It also provides natural gas to 405 of Germany's homes and many of its factories, as well as much of the rest of Europe. Russia's Gazprom pipelines also play a major role in delivering gas from the "stans."
There is a fair amount of evidence that CIA chief Casey (Reagan administration) worked with Saudi Arabia (mad at Russia for invading Afghanistan) to break Russia's economy via increased S.A. production - however, the data do not provide a clean fit supporting this theory. Low energy prices in 1998 led to Russia defaulting on its debt, as well as many bank failures within the country. Prices quickly recovered in 1999, and along with a 40% increase in production between 2000-2004 transformed Russia into a major holder of foreign currencies. Russia has avoided the "Dutch Disease" because it didn't have much manufacturing, other than defense industries, to start with.
Mass privatization did not begin until mid-1992 under Yeltsin. Oligarch-controlled banks loaned the state money in exchange for stock certificates; most of the state's economic problems were due to companies and individuals failing to pay taxes - only about 3 in 70 did, and even those usually paid much less than owed. It was agreed that if the banks were not repaid, the stock would be sold. This occurred in mostly rigged auctions that, eg. excluded foreigners, and usually at far less than the stock was worth. Thus, auctioning Yukos brought $309 million, vs a market value soon afterwards of $15 billion. Similar actions occurred in the mining industry. Other assets were given away in return for eg. TV stations providing support for Yeltsin.
Capital requirements to establish private commercial banks were only $75,000 in 1989, after inflation; required $750,000 in 1987. "Oligarchs" could achieve this via sales of consumer goods immediately after the ban on their sales was lifted; other sources included trading commodities, taking advantage of government positions to sell hard-to-get commodities (eg. lumber). Legal chicanery and thuggery allowed further aggregations - government insiders during the late 1990s used their positions to exchange rapidly inflating rubles for IMF and Goldman Sachs loans denominated in dollars. (LTCM went bankrupt during this period. Another "trick" was suddenly changing stockholder meeting locations without notifying stockholders not part of management.)
Many banks failed, however, during the commodities downturn, and millions lost their savings - including Gorbachev. Putin stepped in and replaced Russia's graduated tax (maximum 30%) with a 13% flat tax, set goals of increasing GDP 7%/year (double in ten years), and increased military spending 27% in 2005 and another 22% in 2006.
Putin's 1997 dissertation proposed creating effective companies in natural resources and using them to advance Russia's national interests after commandeering them. He also wanted to open manufacturing to foreign investment (help modernize), but retain operating control - again to focus on national interests. ("National interest" was equated with low prices within Russia, and suspending deliveries to foreign countries that don't support Russian policy.)
Putin seized the assets of media moguls that criticized him, then replaced oil leaders involved in "asset-stripping," and maneuvering to sell large portions of their companies to American firms, reach long-term agreements to sell oil to China, and failing to pay taxes. (Oil leaders were also deemed guilty of black market activities, an economic crime in Russia. Further, there was strong evidence some were involved in several murders of both public leaders and private competitors.)
Russia's re-nationalizing industry (typically 50% + 1) has given it leverage greater than with nuclear weapons (they were only useful as threats). Reagan tried to block construction of a new gas pipeline from Russia into Europe, and backed it up by banning use of G.E. pumps and other pumps using American parts. Britain, however, ignored Reagan and supplied the equipment. (Cheney has subsequently made similar efforts elsewhere against Russia, and failed as well.)
Russia has the world's largest reserves of natural gas. Ukraine was receiving gas at about 1/3 the world market price, was warned that if wanted closer relationships with the West it should pay Western prices, and then was cut off when it refused to do so and instead diverted Germany's supplies. Similar haggling has occurred involving Georgia and Hungary - the latter regarding its possible agreement to host a competing gas line.
Russia now is claiming ownership of the North Pole sea bottom as an extension of Russia - experts believe it is rich in energy resources.
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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Who is who in Russia's petroleum industry, July 9, 2009
This review is from: Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia (Hardcover)
Petrostate provides enormous amount of information about russian oil and gas industry and state policy.
The book connects the dots between people, corporations, policymakers and events which took place in the country; it explains dynamics which dominated Russia from the times oil was first discovered to present and into the future.
Half of the book is devoted to Vladimir Putin and his strategy to re-emerge Russia as an energy empire. Mr Goldman goes in-depth to explain how Putin transformed profit-oriented, privately-owned oil and gas corporations into "national champions" which promote state's interests above their own; how oil, gas, and pipelines are used to shape Russia's foreign policy and methods Russia uses to advance its interests in Europe and Asia.
If you were always curious about privatization in 1990's, Russian oligarhs, and Ukraine having gas supply cut off once in a while, you will read this book like a thriller. Mr Goldman understands Russia very well and shares a unique vision into recent events in the country and the big picture of Russia as energy superpower.
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