Buy New
$12.99
Qty:1
& FREE Shipping on orders over $49. Details
In Stock.
Ships from and sold by Amazon.com. Gift-wrap available.
Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes... has been added to your Cart
Trade in your item
Get up to a $0.66
Gift Card.
Have one to sell? Sell on Amazon

Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs

4 out of 5 stars 2 customer reviews

Additional DVD options Edition Discs
Price
New from Used from
DVD
(Aug 16, 2007)
"Please retry"
$12.99
$8.99 $9.89

Unlimited Streaming with Amazon Prime
Unlimited Streaming with Amazon Prime Start your 30-day free trial to stream thousands of movies & TV shows included with Prime. Start your free trial
DVD-R Note: This product is manufactured on demand when ordered from Amazon.com. [Learn more]
$12.99 & FREE Shipping on orders over $49. Details In Stock. Ships from and sold by Amazon.com. Gift-wrap available.

Frequently Bought Together

  • Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs
  • +
  • Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Total price: $41.09
Buy the selected items together


Editorial Reviews

What is it about politics that makes people so dumb?

From his perspective as a pyschology researcher, Philip Tetlock watched political advisors on the left and the right make bizarre rationalizations about their wrong predictions at the time of the rise of Gorbachev in the 1980s and the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. (Liberals were sure that Reagan was a dangerous idiot; conservatives were sure that the USSR was permanent.) The whole exercise struck Tetlock as what used to be called an outcome-irrelevant learning structure. No feedback, no correction.

He observes the same thing is going on with expert opinion about the Iraq War. Instead of saying, I evidently had the wrong theory, the experts declare, It almost went my way, or It was the right mistake to make under the circumstances, or I'll be proved right later, or The evilness of the enemy is still the main event here.

Tetlock's summary: Partisans across the opinion spectrum are vulnerable to occasional bouts of ideologically induced insanity. He determined to figure out a way to keep score on expert political forecasts, even though it is a notoriously subjective domain (compared to, say, medical advice), and there are no control groups in history.

So Tetlock took advantage of getting tenure to start a long-term research project now 18 years old to examine in detail the outcomes of expert political forecasts about international affairs. He studied the aggregate accuracy of 284 experts making 28,000 forecasts, looking for pattern in their comparative success rates. Most of the findings were negative--- conservatives did no better or worse than liberals; optimists did no better or worse than pessimists. Only one pattern emerged consistently.

How you think matters more than what you think.


Special Features

None.

Product Details

  • Format: NTSC
  • Region: All Regions
  • Studio: Whole Earth Films
  • DVD Release Date: August 16, 2007
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
  • ASIN: B000V76TYS
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #189,305 in Movies & TV (See Top 100 in Movies & TV)

Customer Reviews

5 star
50%
4 star
0%
3 star
50%
2 star
0%
1 star
0%
See both customer reviews
Share your thoughts with other customers

Top Customer Reviews

Verified Purchase
At the time this was produced, I'm sure it was cutting edge. And I'm certain much of the research remains somewhat valid but in need of refinement.

What is funny is that some predictions that brought laughs when this was made have actually come to pass. Hedgehogs have a better record if the time frame is extended. While hedgehog predictions tend toward being more extreme, it is logical that extreme outcomes might take longer to fulfill.

As typical in economics, a story of success can be derived if we take a selective time slice.

There are some good points made; don't dismiss my review as a pooh poohing of Tetlock's work. But it's not Gospel either---my review or the lecture (if my modifier is misplaced).

Finally, there is nothing about run-time in the description. This runs less than an hour and isn't particularly well done. There's a lot of stalling and stammering around a deck of PowerPoint slides, half of which aren't discussed. It's like he had this deck, showed up to a gathering and then sort of improvised with what he had.

Unless your academic institution is purchasing this for you, save the money.
Comment 2 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
Verified Purchase
Tetlock was the start of a journey into the reality of forecasting (or prediction, depending on the focus of your definition) and demonstrates the fallibility of the 'expert' who must satisfy not only his own narrow view of the world, but also that of his peers. Move from Tetlock to Bayesian analysis (and there are some very good introductions to both the theory and the practice available) and couple these with 'the signal and the noise' (Nate Silver) to give a totally new perspective on what you are being told to believe, and maybe even on what you believe you believe.
Comment Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse

Forums