Sorry, this item is not available in
Image not available for
Image not available

To view this video download Flash Player


Sign in to turn on 1-Click ordering.
Sell Us Your Item
For up to a $0.95 Gift Card
Trade in
More Buying Choices
Have one to sell? Sell yours here

Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)

Price: $12.99 & FREE Shipping on orders over $35. Details
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
In Stock.
Ships from and sold by Gift-wrap available.
Want it Monday, April 28? Choose Two-Day Shipping at checkout. Details
DVD-R Note: This product is manufactured on demand when ordered from [Learn more]

Frequently Bought Together

Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs + Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Price for both: $40.05

Buy the selected items together

Product Details

  • Format: NTSC
  • Region: All Regions
  • Studio: Whole Earth Films
  • DVD Release Date: August 16, 2007
  • Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
  • ASIN: B000V76TYS
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #149,487 in Movies & TV (See Top 100 in Movies & TV)

Special Features


Editorial Reviews

What is it about politics that makes people so dumb?

From his perspective as a pyschology researcher, Philip Tetlock watched political advisors on the left and the right make bizarre rationalizations about their wrong predictions at the time of the rise of Gorbachev in the 1980s and the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. (Liberals were sure that Reagan was a dangerous idiot; conservatives were sure that the USSR was permanent.) The whole exercise struck Tetlock as what used to be called an outcome-irrelevant learning structure. No feedback, no correction.

He observes the same thing is going on with expert opinion about the Iraq War. Instead of saying, I evidently had the wrong theory, the experts declare, It almost went my way, or It was the right mistake to make under the circumstances, or I'll be proved right later, or The evilness of the enemy is still the main event here.

Tetlock's summary: Partisans across the opinion spectrum are vulnerable to occasional bouts of ideologically induced insanity. He determined to figure out a way to keep score on expert political forecasts, even though it is a notoriously subjective domain (compared to, say, medical advice), and there are no control groups in history.

So Tetlock took advantage of getting tenure to start a long-term research project now 18 years old to examine in detail the outcomes of expert political forecasts about international affairs. He studied the aggregate accuracy of 284 experts making 28,000 forecasts, looking for pattern in their comparative success rates. Most of the findings were negative--- conservatives did no better or worse than liberals; optimists did no better or worse than pessimists. Only one pattern emerged consistently.

How you think matters more than what you think.

Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 stars
5.0 out of 5 stars
4 star
3 star
2 star
1 star
Share your thoughts with other customers
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars Are you sure? December 26, 2013
Verified Purchase
Tetlock was the start of a journey into the reality of forecasting (or prediction, depending on the focus of your definition) and demonstrates the fallibility of the 'expert' who must satisfy not only his own narrow view of the world, but also that of his peers. Move from Tetlock to Bayesian analysis (and there are some very good introductions to both the theory and the practice available) and couple these with 'the signal and the noise' (Nate Silver) to give a totally new perspective on what you are being told to believe, and maybe even on what you believe you believe.
Comment | 
Was this review helpful to you?
Search Customer Reviews
Only search this product's reviews

Customers Who Viewed This Item Also Viewed


There are no discussions about this product yet.
Be the first to discuss this product with the community.
Start a new discussion
First post:
Prompts for sign-in

Look for Similar Items by Category