Customer Reviews

Picking Winners: A Horseplayer's Guide

5 star:		(12)
4 star:		(5)
3 star:		(3)
2 star:		(2)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

I've never bet on a horse race. I've actually only been to a track once in my life (we don't have a lot of it in this part of the country), and yet I still found this book tremendously useful. Why? Well, it was recommended to me as a guide to "Picking Winners," not just in the horse racing world but in the stock market as well. And, having now read the book I can say that it has proven a more effective lesson in choosing stocks than most of the investment books I've read.

Some of the areas Beyer explores which I think apply to the stock market as well (or to any investment situation as far as I can tell) are:
-the effect different track conditions can have on a horse's performance.
-considering the effects of trainers on a horse's ability to win, lose, progress, or decline in performance.
-spotting potential cases of insider information.
-When to bet on a consistent performer over an unproven newcomer and vice versa.
-detecting signs of physical malady or deterioration early before you lose money because of them.
-How to detect and hopefully stop a losing streak once one begins.

In short this book provides an incredible amount of insight into the ways of selecting the merits of one horse (ie stock) over another without discounting the influence of other factors (the trainer, ie management, for example) on the outcome. I highly recommend this book as a source of investing knowledge and insight and, were I to take up speed handicapping, would absolutely start here.

I've read many fine books on handicapping and this one is probably the best of them all. A real easy read, its peppered with fascinating and often humerous anecdotes and rules of thumb.

Beyer first introduced his speed handicapping concept in this book, and he shows how to compute the now famous Beyer speed figures. Even though they're available in the Form, its still good to know how they were derived.

At the time Beyer wrote this book, he focused most heavily on speed handicapping, and he would more thoroughly embrace other factors such as pace or trip handicapping later in his career. But he does at least touch on all facets of handicapping in this book, and either a beginner or expert will find it a informative and amusing read.

Enjoy!

Quality journalism, genuine passion and beneficial insight in the same book on gambling? Beyer is not only the preeminent thoroughbred handicapper in the world, but he's also an accomplished sports journalist. He wraps everything perfectly in his primer "Picking Winners." The book reads like a documentary (you feel his pain!) but teaches like Mister Miyagi (weight on, weight off). Anyone with a remote interest in horse racing betting will enjoy the experience, absorbing Beyer's sage advice all the while. While a beginner won't become a black belt handicapper overnight (like Danny), a new world of awareness will open. And actually that's the essence of this book -- no shortcuts, no easy answers. Become aware of the influences and gain proficiency in interpreting them. "Picking Winners" succeeds on many levels but primarily on where so many books of its genre fail. You can read it. Jax Berry

Two years ago, I didn't know the difference between am exacta and a trifecta, or a fig from a fig newton. All that changed when I ordered my first book on racing "Picking Winners" by Andy Beyer. I had read Beyer's horseracing articles in the Washington Post for years, but was such a novice, that I had no idea that he had to speed handicapping like no other before him.

Picking Winners introduced me to the game -- to what handicapping was all about. Beyer gets you started. Read this book, and any novice is ready to go to the track and at least have some fun pretending he knows what he's doing.

The most important aspect of this book, of course, was my introduction to the Beyer speed figures. They are all he claims them to be; they are not all what others claim them to be. The figs are not the Holy Grail -- but you'll never find the Grail without them.

Most importantly, Beyer gave me an instant understanding of the horseracing game -- no crap -- no esoteric wanderings, but a true working knowledge of handicapping techniques -- and did I mention the speed figs? (haha)

If you are new to the game or if you have little knowledge of those mysterious numbers highlighted in the DRF under "Speed," get this book.

After two years and a dozen other books, I still refer to it several times a week. It has made betting the horses for me a fun, and most often profitable hobby.

The last time I went to the races I was five or so, and went to a track just outside Chicago on a beautiful, sunny day. I placed three bets on two races, cashed on none of them, and was thoroughly bored for all but about 2:22 1/5 of the afternoon. As I often did any time I wanted something, I began to pout; knowing I would get what I wanted. I wanted, more than anything else I could imagine at that time, to leave that awful, boring place, and never return.

Almost twenty years later, the writing of one man, published 30 years ago, has done what, just yesterday, seemed impossible, and completely reversed my perception of this sport.

Until reading this fascinating account of horse racing and it's amazing intricacies, I was among those to criticize nearly every facet of the "event" (never one to dignify it as a sport). You name it, I probably disagreed with it: the physical treatment of the horses both during training and races, the drugs that were unquestionably prolific in use, the jockeys' voices becoming unnaturally high as a result of their ghastly profession, the addict gamblers wasting what should be productive lives in the grandstands at some racetrack, and those same gamblers who seemed to care more about horses than people. Nothing about it impressed me and everything about it disgusted me. And when Tony Kornheiser, on both his radio and television sports shows, openly considered and argued Secretariat to be one of the 50 top athletes of all time, well, that was, to me, the most laughable, offensive comment I had ever heard from a sports analyst, on any previous topic. When ESPN dignified his opinions by naming five horseracing-related athletes in their Top 100 All-Century list, including Secretariat (at No. 35, just ahead of Oscar Robertson, Mickey Mantle, Ben Hogan and Walter Payton), I could only shake my head in disbelief. I was appalled. I simply could not understand how anyone, let alone any group as respectable as ESPN, could be so irrational. That was five years ago, but my views had not changed.

Then I read "Picking Winners". I had just finished reading the chapters covering the speed rating process when, on page 158, I read, "romanticists could appreciate Secretariat for his strength, his grace, his exciting style of running. But for me the most awesome moment of his career came two days after the Belmont Stakes, when I sat down with paper, pencil, and the Belmont charts, calculated my track variant and wrote down the number 148 for the eighth race that day. For a true addict, speed figures are the most beautiful part of the game."

Upon reading this, I went back and read it again; and then I read it again; and then I stopped reading and paused as I realized how greatly I had underestimated this sport. I paused to think about Secretariat, and how I remembered my aunt crying on both the occasions she tried to talk about him. Crying. About a horse. That she never even owned.

I can understand, now, just why that is. His perfection inspired awe in all that encountered him, and on that one day at Belmont, he outdid his own perfection in an astonishing performance, the enormity of which is most appropriately expressed not with words, but by wordless emotion, awe-inspired tears. Or, in my preferred language, numbers, through Beyer's speed rating. This passage comes at the end of the three chapters that describe the basic intricacies that formulate Beyer's speed ratings, just when the power of a speed figure of 148 can be adequately understood and absorbed. I now understand.

Picking up this book was, for me, never about horse racing. I didn't plan to use this information at the tracks, nor did I plan to alter my opinions of the sport. I bought this book and read it based on the recommendation of the brilliant stock analyst, Jim Cramer, who claims this book helped him develop a strategy for analyzing and picking stocks. Similarly, all I wanted from this book was insight I could extract and use as a parallel method for stock analysis. I found what I was looking for. This book is a great educator of a methodical analytical technique that has been proved effective; and, as written by Beyer, can be understood and applied easily, by most anyone. I am more pleased, however, that I did not find exactly and only that for which I was looking. I found much more. I have developed an appreciation for this sport that I, otherwise, would likely never have obtained. As a result, I enthusiastically recommend this fantastic read for two reasons: to anyone wanting to gain a unique perspective on horseracing, this book will provide you with a greatly increased appreciation for the sport and all its components; and to anyone interested in improving their analytical abilities, methods and applications, regardless of where or how they choose to apply them, i recommend this book because it will prove meaningful, creatively inspiring, and pertinent for many applications even fully unrelated to horseracing. A truly exceptional read.

Well done, Mr. Beyer.

Nothing against Beyer or any other handicapping writer, but devoting significant time to the study of handicapping is a fool's errand. The mathematics of beating the game are so prohibitively against the bettor that anyone with the ability to even approach break-even would be better served dedicating his/her time to more lucrative pursuits. Regardless of the race, the only thing that is certain is that the track will take about 20% for straight bets and 25% or more for so-called "exotic" wagers. In order to just break-even, you need the ability to identify errors made by the betting public of at least 20%. For any reasonable series of races in which the market is "efficient" (i.e. the betting populace has done a reasonable job of setting pay-outs) you have zero possibilty of making a profit. Studies have consistently shown that the betting public does a remarkable job in setting an efficient price. Obviously, in order to overcome the 20% "tax", you need superior information to that which is available to the general public. Given that "Beyer" speed figures are now common currency, the advantage clearly doesn't lie here. The racing form and video of previous races are common currency as well. You could take a walk down to the paddock and try to infer something there, good luck! Unless you have the ability to somehow communicate with the horse, this isn't going to really be that fruitful. Some horses look like garbage before a race and spring to life when the gate opens. Others look like Secretariat in the paddock and like a candidate for the glue factory once they hook up at full speed w/ other nags. Another point to consider is that your betting competition includes owners, trainers, stable boys, etc. who are around the horse all the time and certainly have superior information about the horses physical and mental state. Additionally, you can only speculate as to what the owner and trainer are intending from a given race. I'm not talking "fix" here, but it's not always the case that the horse's connections have entered this race with the main objective of actually winning it. Beyer is one of the leading thoroughbred writers in America and revolutionized handicapping with his speed figures, but the difficulty in beating this game should be clearly understood before you find yourself on the proverbial boulevard of broken dreams.

So many folks go to get the racing form and live by the figures without actually understanding what they mean or how they are computed. This was the original volume on computing figures and remains relevant to those who look at Beyer figures. You can't make money using them anymore, but it sure helps to know what you are looking at.

This book is from the 1970's. All the racing charts and related handicapping info/discussions are 35 years old. Meaningless with what's available to todays handicappers. There is some info on handicapping like class and condition. He writes about handicappers using a slide rule. There is nothing about trifectas and superfectas. Nothing written about pick 3's or pick 6's. However, I believe that in the 1970's this book would have rated "10 Stars". Today it should be considered a classic read, not a current handicapping book to help pick winners.

Andrew Beyer is the father of the speed figures (a process he thoroughly explains across 3 chapters of this book) and one of the most well-known handicappers in the sport.

There is good reason why this book is one of the best selling books in the category of horse race handicapping. It is a must read for all levels of handicappers. Beginners will find Chapter 2 - "A Handicapping Primer" perhaps the most useful to them. Beyer breaks down the Race Form, explaining what each piece of data means, and how it can applied to properly handicap a race. More seasoned horseplayers will find the chapters on trainers, track bias, and money management more insightful.

My only drawback to the book is, that in the recent reprints, Beyer has not updated the exceprts from Race Forms to explain his points. The excerpts are from the 1970's (the original print date), and the look and style of the racing form has changed since then. However, this minor issue doesn't take too much away from the overall quality of this book.

This is a brilliant book, but more importantly, it's the first must read for any individual looking to make money at the racetrack. I've spent close to 15 years betting on the ponies. I read Beyer's book when I was 13 and it gave me the foundation for my horse race handicapping success. The only issue a horseplayer will have is if he or she is prone to never changing their handicapping processes.

So, Beyer's book is great, but it's not gospel.

and they're off!: Stories From the Racetrack (Volume 1)