Customer Reviews

The Polar Bear Strategy: Reflections on Risk in Modern Life

5 star:		(9)
4 star:		(3)
3 star:		(0)
2 star:		(2)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

This is a superficial treatment of a complex and fascinating subject. There are better popularizations of the topic, with more actual information and a deeper perspective. Check out the Larry Laudan books for facts on risks, and a number of others for the psychology of decision-making in the face of risk. H.W. Lewis's Why Flip a Coin, the Art and Science of Good Decision-Making, is every bit as accessible as this book but has no empty mental calories.

Charles Perrow on the complex causes of accidents is terrific, and Edward Tenner (Why Things Bite Back) on the risks inherent in technology are both good.

The most valuable part of this book for me was the comprehensive bibliography.

Sorry to be a curmudgeon, but this book was a disapointment in an area of great(but not professional) interest to me.

As a layperson in the subject of risk management, I found the explanation of risk and the very specific examples extremely helpful. I teach a college course in technology and ethics, part of which is a section on safety and risk, and I found myself referring frequently to the examples in the book. Appreciating just how different the perception of risk and the actual risk can be I think is one of the most valuable lessons the book provides. And aside from the classroom, I have also found the material useful in understanding risk in my own life. I think this book would be a good introduction to risk management for any reader, though I can appreciate how someone better educated about the subject might find it a bit lacking.

You've got to read this book! Ross has taken a scary subject and used vivid graphic examples, as well as humor, to bring it into the reader's everyday life. Chapter 8 on toxins is especially enlightening. And I am changing my mouthwash -it contains alcohol! I've recommended this book to my monthly book discussion group.

This book goes a long way towards explaining the nature of risk in the modern world. We know a great deal about the risks involved in almost any activity  even lying in bed or sitting still and breathing has its own risks. As our ability to measure and compare risk grows ever more sophisticated, we can consider risk information simply unavailable to those of a generation ago. The result is that simply existing in the modern world means making relative risk choices. The old "identify and avoid" approach to risk simply wont work anymore because there is never a zero-risk option available. While we can never avoid risk entirely, the huge amount of risk information now available means that we can tailor our decisions to our own individual tolerances for risk like never before. For example, we can choose to reduce our risk of heart disease, but still choose the relatively risky sport of skiing, because we feel the enjoyment outweighs the risk of harm. The book also makes it clear that many gross distinctions in the modern world, such as "organic" and "inorganic" food, are essentially meaningless. Eating organic food wont necessarily reduce your risk of bad health  many plants are naturally toxic and almost all naturally contain many of the same substances, such as carcinogens, that "going organic" is supposed to avoid. Choosing a low-risk diet is certainly possible, but the true risks involved are considerably more complex than dividing foods into "organic" and "inorganic", or indeed "GE-free" or "GE modified".

A savvy, readable compendium of anecdotes and scientific studies, this must-read book urges us to relax our fears of the big risky world out there. With good humor and style, the author knifes through New Age fears by comparing relative risks and gives us a manual for sane living in the modern world. Bravo to John Ross, he's a writer I'd like to see a lot more of, on any subject.

The prose is well-crafted and I think this book would serve as an adequate introduction to the field for people who have no quantitative background. However, as a number-cruncher, I was frustrated by the total reliance on written descripton, the presence of some errors, and poor coverage of some topics.

There's not a single table of numbers, when there's several places where a list would make it much easier to make comparisons than trying to pick the numbers from inside sentences. There's not a single illustration, when a diagram would describe the normal distribution and standard deviation much more clearly than prose. And of course there's not a single equation.

There's at least one quantitative error, a botched calculation on page 45 of the probability of dying in a car accident over a lifetime (probability of an accident per year should be multiplied by the number of years per lifetime, not the number of car trips per lifetime). I was confused during the discussion of Galton's development of "regression to the mean" in the 1800s by the term "regression coefficient". I finally realized that this was Galton's own terminology and that the context had nothing to do with linear regression, a different but much more common topic with which "regression coefficient" is usually associated.

There are areas that are not covered adequately or at all, such as: the contrast between individual and population risk; risks undertaken through individual choice versus risks imposed by others; differences in perceived risk based on the framing of the situation (the work of Kahnemann and Tversky); how misleading risk ratios can be when the absolute risk is extremely low and sample sizes aren't large enough. Perhaps I'm being unfair since the book is probably not meant to be a comprehensive overview of the field.

I was impatient at the wordiness when discussing issues with which I was already familiar. However, I was immersed in the storyline of the anecdotes and when topics new to me were covered, so I'll give credit for good writing. I also agree completely with the take-home message of the book, that we should learn the language of risk and use it to manage the risks in our lives and society.

I first learned of this book by watching Book TV and seeing John Ross (author) speak about his book in DC. I was captivated by what I heard and had to read the book. You don't realize how much "risk" or "risk management" is a part of your everyday life. Mr. Ross does an excellent job of explaining the history of "risk management" and how it has evolved in this complexed world of ours.

He reminds me of my favorite teacher in High School. This Physics teacher would explain complexed theorys and equations with entertaining short stories. All of these short stories where from his own experiences or based on true historical events. In somewhat the same way, this book teaches you about a relatively new science (risk management).

I truely enjoyed the unbias and common sense way the book was written. Don't think of it as a science book. It is an eye opening truth in "Reflections on Risk in Modern Life". I have recommended this book to many of my friends and family.

Mr. Ross has done an excellent job of putting the risks all around us in perspective. He does this through a perfect blend of personal stories, historical events and pure facts. The tough topic of risk analysis is made crystal clear. A great summer read!

Quite an interesting book. Mr.Ross skillfully strips the topic of "risk analysis" away from the stuffy theorizing of collegiate textbooks and creatively applies it to our everyday lives. By identifying and examining the risks inherent in our daily lives,the author exposes some basic flaws in the way each of us perceives risk. With this book,I was able to examine how I personally deal with my daily risks and make my life safer and more worry-free. This book is a must read!

I've not read this book but plan to. It seems the consensus is that it's a good easy read, no math, and well laid out with a few typos. Another book in this area that I've skimmed and recommend is: Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment (Paperback) by Cass R. Sunstein, which is more towards the legal aspects of risk. Recommended.