Customer Reviews

The Power of Early Speed (Elements of Handicapping)

5 star:		(6)
4 star:		(3)
3 star:		(5)
2 star:		(2)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

this is the best handicapping book in 20 years. the data tables alone are worth $1,000 as that is how much it would cost to hire a programmer to run some of those tests.

it is a great tool for the savvy handicapper.

A monumental study illustrating the importance of early speed in the handicapping of Thoroughbred Horse Racing in North America. Using a computer analysis of over 1.6 million thoroughbreds involving the period of January 1996 through December of 2004 author Steve Klein presents a crucial part of the handicapping picture. For me, the book provided a reawakening and clearer focus of some of my handicapping skills that had become underused over the course of time. Steve's work dwarfs another previous computer study "Winning at the Races", by William Quirin, Ph.D., William and Morrow, 1979. Steve's "Power of Early Speed is a must read for any serious horse bettor. I highly recommend it with 5 Stars.

The Klein speed points are excellent in showing which horses will have the early lead.I have only used it one day at the track, and the first time I used it in an exacta, the 3 horses I had selected, came in 1-2-3. The charts are great in showing at what tracks, distances,to use it for. I feel that it will help me alot in making me a better handicapper.

It is a shame that the vast databanks of information held by Daily Racing Form and Equibase have not been gleaned and explored like Klein has done here. This is a study of 1,671,627 starters and the effect of early speed in racing. It is the first of its kind, to my knowledge.

What Klein provides is not the Rosetta Stone of racing, but rather an affirmation of what critics will say we already knew--early speed is the universal bias in racing. But Klein goes further. He doesn't just prove up early speed's influence, he provides a solid (if in-artful) way of determining how a race will shape up by the first call. His surprisingly simple formula makes the Quirin Speed Point obsolete.

I highly recommend this book to horseplayers, especially those advanced enough to understand the significance of the scale of Klein's study. Any expert horseplayer that can put aside the arrogance of his close-minded commitment to his own hunches, rules, and opinions can undoubtedly benefit from this treatise and avoid the inevitable award of stubborn inflexibility--a slow, grinding loss at the track.

The statistics in this book overwhelmingly establish what should have been known by any horseplayer worth a two dollar bet--find the speed in a race and you are length away from the winner.

The disappointing part of the book is Klein's anecdotal evidence. Klein, like all prior authors of books on handicapping, relies on self-serving anecdotes to prove some of his hypotheses. I do not know why he has chosen to do this considering the volumes of hard-and-fast empirical evidence that he has at his fingertips to make his point. For instance, in his chapter on what speed horses to avoid, he fails to support his argument with any quantitative evidence, but rather relies on a few past races. Why, Mr. Klein? The rest of the book is based on the performances of over a million thoroughbred starts. Why revert to the woefully-inadequate method of proving your point by referring to a solitary (and therefore impenetrable) isolated event in racing? I would have preferred Klein had just admitted that his statistics do not tell us which speed horses to avoid, rather than attempt to tackle the question without any credible data.

Klein's endeavor here was long overdue, and I hope he, or others at DRF, will decide to use this scientific and statistical method for dealing with the other elements of handicapping--speed, class, track biases, angles, and conditions.

Steve Klein authored a good one. He is a believer in early speed and now I am, too! His work, The Power of Early Speed, is one you should have in your library. It is appropriate for both the casual weekend player and for the more ambitious handicapper who plays one or more tracks each day.

The book starts with the history behind his idea to write a book-- Steve had early success with early speed while growing up in California. The history moves to the present: Steve works for the Daily Racing Form and covers Kentucky racing. He pondered whether early speed was something that was universal. He decided to use the vast DRF database and used 1,671,627 horses to find out. I'll ruin the ending of the story for you -- it does!

He includes charts that show the profitability of early speed at the different odds levels and at different track conditions. Same with the different distances carded by each track. He includes additional data of track specific trainer and jockeys success vs. early speed. These charts alone could be used favorably by the casual player. Finding and recorded early speed track biases and how to handicap early speed via Klein speed points rounds out the volume.

The lone complaint I have is that the font size should be larger. It was difficult for me to read the charts and past performances. I ended up using a magnifying glass. I recommend that when the second printing takes place that the past performances and charts be enlarged.

I've been playing and reading handicapping books for close to 50 years. Steve's book is one I strongly recommend. It has helped my game; it will help yours.

Steve Klein, The Power of Early Speed (DRF Press, 2005)

There are a whole lot of handicapping books on the market. Few of them contribute anything new to the genre. The Power of Early Speed may be one of the books that does, though I plan to give it a lot of testing before I start making that claim with any force.

Steve Klein here gives us a new method for calculating early speed points. Despite the book's rather considerable (for a handicapping tome) bulk, that's the long and short of it; much of the book's three hundred-odd pages is taken up with lists of tracks, trainers, and jockeys to refine the original early speed points calculation. As you could probably compress the actual information in this book into an eight-page pamphlet, you have to ask yourself if it's really worth the cover price. My answer, for the moment: it depends. If Klein's early speed points turn out to be the best handicapping tool since the Beyer Speed Figures (and the promise is certainly there), I guarantee you this book will be worth its weight in gold many times over. Otherwise, you'll end up having paid for a curious collector's item, like those horrid William Baumann books you want to forget you ever even read. It's hard to tell simply from the book; Klein has not yet recognized the value of a technique many handicappers have adopted since William Scott first popularized it: showing when your system loses along with when it wins. If you read this book without a critical eye, you're likely to think Klein has uncovered the secret to your own personal banking industry. Hopefully, you'll come to your senses before you go broke.

It is possible, however, that Klein has provided us with a valuable handicapping tool, and that is an intriguing proposition. I'll be testing the numbers out over the next few months. ***

The data presented is great. The format is easy to use. Well worth having in your library.
Sadly, the method presented to find the early leader only works about 40% of the time. To make the data work as a positive roi factor it would need to work about 80% of the time.
At least it set the wheels in motion for more study's of finding the early leader,
Jerry Hill

In the month and a half since I read my copy of The Power of Early Speed, I've gone on the best run of my handicapping life-- nearly +$3000 on $5 win and $2 exacta wagers. I'm regularly identifying 8-1 and higher longshots that my normal handicapping would have ignored.

The basic principle is this: Horses on the lead at the first call of dirt races win roughly 20% of the time yet yield a positive return on investment. This holds true across all class levels and at every track in North America, based on a 9 year, 200K race sample.

Klein shows you how to identify horses likely to take the lead with a Speed Point formula that's useful, but that isn't necessary to calculate all the time, if you keep in mind running position at the first call, field size (it's more impressive when you make the lead or are close to the pace in a larger field) and race distance (horses entered today in longer races have a greater chance of making the lead).

In addition, Klein points you towards trainers whose horses tend to go to the front more often-- especially good when you're in a 1st off claim or 1st with trainer situation. He also details which riders like to gun from the gate at each track-- and sometimes certain riders gun at one track while holding back at others. For instance, Edgar Prado is much more likely to head for the front at Awueduct while being more patient at Belmont.

Details like that give you a great edge at the windows.

Handicappers and writers have long talked about the importance of early speed, but now Klein brings a massive research project to the table to show exactly how powerful this factor is. Most handicapping books bring select examples or limited samples of a few hundred races results to the table, but Klein calls on the Daily Racing Form database to inclued over 1.6 million starters. He then details by track, condition, and class to provide more insight into return on investment for each. The idea isn't revolutionary, but the data that backs up his ideas leave no doubt as to the "Power of Early Speed." Klein's speed points appear on the surface to be better than Quirin's technique that he developed 20+ years ago.

I wish Klein had given his point technique somewhat of a test run and provided results of his test. It's easy to look back and talk about return on investment for early leads after the race is run, but I would like some proof of how effective the Klein points are at identifying leaders because that is what will produce results.

I've been handicapping for quite some time and find the author, Steve Klein, unable to come up with anything new on the subject of handicapping. It's a shame. I buy pretty much any new handicapping book that comes down the pipe in the hope of finding even ONE nugget, but all I found here were previously turned over stones.

Quirn has already written on the same thing. I think we all know early speed is important (at least my 12-year old does).

I guess if I had to find a plus (and believe me it took awhile) was Klein's speed points, however, I found it impossible to relate how these points relate to the leaders at the first call. This is probably because the DRF book failed to contain any tests or verifications of the author's work. Incidentally, I found that fact (no verification) quite odd given that the book seemed to be made up of 50% charts.

If you are looking for a book that is an overlay, this isn't it. Just another tome coming out of the DRF puppy mill.

I will say it LOOKS nice next to the other DRF books if you are collecting.