The Power of Logical Thinking: Easy Lessons in the Art of Reasoning...and Hard Facts About Its Absence in Our Lives [Paperback]

Marilyn vos Savant (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: April 15, 1997

America has become a society devoid of understanding of the power of logic and numbers. All too often, we rely on our intuition or on empty statistics to formulate opinions about ourselves and our world. As a result of inadequate schooling in the art of reasoning, we have become a people unable to make truly logical decisions, intimidated by numbers, and too passive to reverse this disturbing trend. The Power of Logical Thinking addresses these concerns, illustrating how you can reason better, how numbers are used against you, and how your vote may be affected. Marilyn vos Savant writes, "We can't trust out intuitions, our statisticians, or our politicians. The 1992 presidential campaign is a case in point. Numbers were used, abused, and misused by the candidates as never before in the history of our country. Voters were easily manipulated, setting a precedent for years to come. Will it happen again? Or will we be more prepared for future elections?" Part One of The Power of Logical Thinking explains the most provocative of the counterintuitive problems that Marilyn vos Savant has encountered in recent years, such as the now classic "Monty Hall Dilemma," the improbability of winning the lottery, and much more. Part Two shows how statistics have quietly become a tool of persuasion instead of education. In addition to exploring puzzles and paradoxes, these sections explains the underlying reasoning to help you answer questions such as which surgery should you choose? what are your odds of having breast cancer? do drug-testing and AIDS-testing give you yes/no answers? In Part Three, vos Savant illustrates how our votes are affected, with examples of selective logic, specious reasoning, and outright sophistry collected from the campaigns of Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Ross Perot.

Editorial Reviews

From Library Journal

Savant, the Parade magazine columnist known for having the highest recorded I.Q., has written an interesting analysis of the use and misuse of statistics. Using the style of earlier books such as I've Forgotten Everything I Learned in School (LJ 1/94), she covers mathematical reasoning that seems illogical at first glance but can be explained rationally. She also presents at length (covered further in a long appendix) the controversy that has become known as the "Monty Hall dilemma" and discusses financial twists on logic and misused statistics to convey information or benefit a political candidate. (President Clinton takes the brunt of criticism in this section.) Recommended for libraries where Savant's earlier writings have been popular.?Marguerite Mroz, Baltimore Cty. P.L., Towson, Md.
Copyright 1996 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From Booklist

Fellow English majors, arise! This book is for those of us whose brains stalled when faced with the threat of "word problems" in math class. Vos Savant shows us how even the most well educated can be semiliterate in the arts of reasoning and problem solving. She illustrates how easily we are duped by "counter-intuitive" problems whose solutions run against the grain of instinct. In part 1, vos Savant analyzes examples of these problems, including the famous "Monty Hall Dilemma" that initiated a deluge of mail from irate mathematicians after she posed it in her Sunday column. Part 2 unveils how easy it is to misunderstand mean-spirited statistics. This section also contains fascinatingly thorough descriptions of every conceivable verbal fallacy--a tour de force to delight the number-impaired. Part 3 is an eye-opening analysis of the ways politicians use statistics, "selective logic," and faulty reasoning to sway our votes. Vos Savant's clear, logical approach to convoluted problems is a tonic for anyone who feels queasy around economics, statistics, word problems, or politicians. Patricia Hassler

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Product Details

• Paperback: 228 pages
• Publisher: St. Martin's Griffin (April 15, 1997)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0312156278
• ISBN-13: 978-0312156275
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6.1 x 0.6 inches
• Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (17 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #639,861 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

29 of 30 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars the lady with the high IQ, January 23, 2008

By 

Michael R. Chernick "statman31147" (Holland PA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Power of Logical Thinking: Easy Lessons in the Art of Reasoning...and Hard Facts About Its Absence in Our Lives (Hardcover)

Marilyn Vos Savant is known for her provocative articles in Parade Magazine and also gets publicity for her high IQ (a little too much publicity). But what really made her world famous was the reaction to her solution to a reader's question about a probability problem. Her answer was simple and direct but received the wrath and scorn of many mathematicians that thought she had blundered. This problem is now called the Monty Hall problem and discussion of it can be found in statistical journals and introductory textbooks. I use it in my elementary statistics classes to arouse the interest of my students.
This book is about the way that most people make decisions in their daily lives without logical thinking. Counterintuitive problems like the Monty Hall problem bring this home. Marilyn had confidence in her answer and stuck to her guns when many argued against her using only their degree credentials as support of their position.

Personally, I participated in the debate. When I read her article and saw my fellow mathematicians and statisticians condemning her, I wrote to her with an argument in her defense. Alas, she got so many letters that mine did not appear in her column. She seemed to delight in publishing more of the nasty critical letters than the ones in her defense. I guess she felt capable of defending herself inspite of her lack of an advanced degree in mathematics or statistics.

At this point I think she is milking it a bit as the same problem or a slight variation of it continues to show up in her column from time to time.

This book has a wonderful theme and it is played out in three parts, 1. how our mind plays tricks on us, 2. how numbers and statistics can mislead and 3. how politicians exploit our innocence. Many of the examples are not original and this terrritory, especially topic number 2., has been well covered by Huff and others dating back to 1954. But the coverage of US Presidential campaign of 1992 with all its distortions of economic data is new , interesting and thought provoking. That section alone is worth the price of the book.

Personally I bought it more for the detailed account of the history of the Monty Hall problem in her column and the even more interesting appendix "The Monty Hall Dilemma: To Switch or not Switch" by Donald Granberg. In addition to providing a rigorous account of the mathematical assumptions that lead to Marilyn's solution as the correct one, Granberg did survey research to try to understand how people solve such problems and why they stick to erroneous solutions inspite of the excellent counter-arguments.

25 of 27 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Enjoyable read and introduction to logic and fallacies, December 15, 2001

By 

Harold McFarland (Florida) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Power of Logical Thinking: Easy Lessons in the Art of Reasoning...and Hard Facts About Its Absence in Our Lives (Paperback)

After a basic introduction to some logical fallacies such as the statistical implications of some drug tests, this book moves to the now famous Monty Hall problem. This seemed like a simple problem on the surface. On a game show you are given the choice of three doors behind one of which is a fabulous prize. You pick one and afterwards the host turns around one of the wrong door. Then he offers you to keep the door you originally chose or to change doors. Do you stay or change? This simple problem caused a great deal of controversy and numerous letters after Marilyn Vos Savant stated that it would be better to switch. Her explanation is here as well and letters from various scholars as to why she was wrong. Turns out, she was right.
With that background to catch your interest (and it does so very well) she then moves on to other topics and how statistics can be used to support just about any position. Of particular fascination are the ways in which our intuition leads us to one conclusion but logic and mathematics prove that conclusion to be wrong. As a good example, she covers politics and how the political engine uses our intuitional errors and statistics to prove both sides right!
I will have to say that she does a good job of explaining the problems and conclusions in a style that even someone who does not understand mathematics very well can still comprehend. There are several other books that cover similar topics and if you like this one then you might also try them. I loved Innumeracy and found it fascinating to read through.

12 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Excellent, although not cohesive, intro to statistics, August 10, 1998

By 

Robert L. Miller "avid reader" (Irvine, California, USA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Power of Logical Thinking: Easy Lessons in the Art of Reasoning...and Hard Facts About Its Absence in Our Lives (Hardcover)

This is really two books, one about the "Monty Hall" problem, and another one all about politics, campaign promises, and other ways the popular press gets it wrong. Is there a tie between the two? Yes. This could have been an excellent tome on how our emotions and our "wants" and our intuition often leads us astray, and how advertising, entertainment, and politics capitalizes on that. But somehow there is little connection between the two. I didn't find Vos Savant's ego to be the main theme of this book, in fact, she downplays herself many times. But other books, by authors like Sagan, Randi, Shick, Dawkins, and Shermer, cover this ground better.