Customer Reviews

Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World

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This is Richard Heinberg's second book on the oil depletion problem, his first was THE PARTY'S OVER, you probably should read that book before this one, to get an overview of the enormous problem facing us in the near future. In this latest volume Heinberg writes much more about the underlying politics of the depletion scenario, and it is'nt a pretty one. At one time, when it was said that the war in Iraq was really about oil I did'nt believe it, or perhaps it was one of the minor side issues of the war. But Heinberg makes a case for it. After Bush declared "mission accomplished" (a laugh) his group only allowed primarily American companies, with a few allied companies, to work in Iraq. And it does'nt take much imagination to see that, as the Iraqi oil infrastructure is repaired (attempted), American oil companies will get most of the work. In a global free market economy the highest bidder would get Iraqi oil, but in a severe oil shortage Uncle Sam may declare: that since we "fixed" the system in Iraq the USA gets the oil...Iraqis are'nt stupid, they see this as a real possibility, that is perhaps one reason they sabotage oil pipelines continuously. As Heinberg writes, Bush and his followers are incompetent, with their belligerent foreign policy, but Heinberg does give Bush credit for recognizing the looming oil depletion problem on our horizon. Heinberg writes in detail of all of this, saying that instead of using the war to solve this problem we should instead be cooperating with other countries and spending the vast sums of money we are wasting on the war on alternate energy sources.

Although Heinberg believes we are already too late to prevent a collapse of our industrial way of life, he also writes that we should nevertheless begin the task of developing alternate energy sources, as they will be needed eventually, regardless of whether a collapse occurs and it's severity. Also, as Heinberg writes in detail, the neoconservatives that are now in power (the Bush administration) have informally connected to the 'religious right', making a powerful impediment to any progress to efforts to create a sustainable civilization, and that this coalition of neoconservatives with the religious right will lead us into endless resource wars and further ignite anti-American sentiments and additional terrorism against the USA and it's interests.

But the primary message here is resource depletion, especially oil. Also discussed by Heinberg is the idea of 'population overshoot', have we exceeded the carrying capacity of our planet via the production of vast amounts of food made possible by ferilizer manufactured with abundant and cheap natural gas? To me this is all very alarming, and we all should get our personal economic houses in order while we still are able to.

If the collapse of civilization as we know it is inevitable , perhaps, as Heinberg suggests, the best course for us is the preservation of books, the arts, etc., for use later in a post-collapse society. The sustainable energy program that Heinberg and many others suggest that we should pursue with utmost urgency seems unlikely to occur until the American people are faced with a severe oil shortage and massive price increases. Then the politicians will be forced to take real and responsible action. In the meantime we seem to be in a period of nearly endless resource wars with hundreds of billions of dollars each year diverted to this losing cause that indeed should be spent on alternate energy sources, better highways, and better health care, for all Americans. Considering the vast amounts we are spending in this overseas war effort, perhaps the terrorists have already won!

As a personal note, I have read a bit on the oil depletion problem, and the estimates of the date of the world oil production peak I have seen range from right now to the year 2020, a couple go out to 2034-2037, they can be dismissed rather easily, so it seems that around the year 2015 is a good average, in time we shall see. Of course, any large increase in world demand for oil could overwhelm the supply, making the peak date irrelevant.

This is a thoughtfully devised book that is about more than just oil. It reads like an elegant personalized tutorial in which the author presents the big picture, the current condition, four competing options, and a recommendation for a personal exit strategy. This book is quite literally priceless if you pay attention to the lesson.

The author puts the end of cheap oil in the larger context of other depleting resources (water, ocean fisheries, agricultural resources such as topsoil); population growth; declining food production, global climate change and ecocide; unsustainable levels of US debt; and international political instability.

The author is severely critical of all politicians in general, and brutally scornful of the neo-conservatives that have captured the Bush-Cheney-Halliburton-Exxon Administration (Enron being an invisible partner now). He actually itemizes, rather effectively (a half page for each of the following), what Bush-Cheney have done in eight years that is against the interests of the Republic. According to the author and his sources, they have 1) Stolen an election; 2) placed convicted felons and human-rights violators in positions of power; 3) facilitated 9/11, blocking its prevention, as a means of justifying the war on Iraq and a consolidation of domestic police power; 4) Lied to the American people, the UN, and other publics about Iraq, a war of choice not need; 5) Undermined international law; 5) applied indiscriminate force against civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq, killing tens if not hundreds of thousands; and 6) subverted the US Constitution.

I take the above at face value--it is less of an angry diversion from the book's theme, and more of a critical current assessment showing that in the face of these larger strategic shortfalls that face us, Bush-Cheney were exactly the WRONG way to go. I of course acknowledge that the American people chose to return them to office; hence we get the government we deserve.

Across the book the author takes great care to cite the work of others and point the reader to useful resources. On pages 94-95 he gives us the key seven needs in a powerdown scenario: 1) Stabilize human population; 2) Increase resource efficiency; 3) Shift economics from production to services (including full employment); 4) Reduce pollution; 5) Divert capital to food production (one might add, basic food production like beans, instead of frivolous food production like exotic mushrooms and out of season fruits); 6) Shift agriculture to a sustainable model; and 7) Improve the design of all hard goods to make them durable and repairable.

I am absolutely fascinated with and respectful of the author's focus on Cuba as a model for a powerdown scenario. He does a tremendous job of showing how Cuba adjusted to the US embargoes and the collapse of their Soviet sponsor by going to organic agriculture, mass transit and use of bicycles and animals for much individual transport, and so on. It is be a compelling and fascinating turn of events if the Cuban organic full employment model ultimately triumphs over the immoral profligate US model of consumer capitalism and double deficits (debt and trade). Espero, con respeto, ese dia en el qual Cuba podra declarar su exito moral y nacional.

The other model that the author recommends is the Amish model, where there is a very high reliance on human labor and smart farming without tractors or pesticides.

The author debunks hydrogen as an alternative fuel, points out that hundreds of nuclear plans could be a 50 year solution, but that we will run out of uranium in several decades, and that solar and wind power are now very viable, but will be slow to scale. He emphasizes two aspects of any plausible positive scenario: 1) it will need deliberate commitments at the community level to re-engineer entire counties toward sustainable models, with locally produced food and limited energy demands, massive conservation of water; and 2) it will require considerable government intervention--large scale government intervention.

The author ends with a retrospective on the decline and fall of the Roman and Mayan civilizations. The latter experienced population growth, then tribal fights over scarce resources, a "surprise" drought with cataclysmic impact; and finally, a political leadership engrossed in short-term objectives and unwilling to focus on strategic planning for the long-term. This sounds all too familiar.

A final note that I really admired: the author emphasizes that in the future we will need to return to the employment of "primitive" technologies that are not dependent on fuel, and that there will be a need for a new order of monks or knowledge transmitters, who can re-teach entire generations, entire populations, how to powerdown while ramping up communal agriculture and self-sufficiency.

I will end by saying very candidly that my family is going to cash out of the Northern Virginia area. We are going to sell our home, my office building, and my business, and we are going to move to a community on a robust river in the mountains where communal self-sufficiency can be achieved. This is one of several books that have had a life-altering impact on my family. I do not trust our politicians to be responsible at the federal or state level. I am therefore moving us down to a county-level of personal integrity and interaction, where honor might be assured by a combination of kinship and mutual dependency. I cannot think of a more serious means of ending my review of this book than by stating how it has directed me.

I've been following the peak oil debate for several years and generally agree with most of its proponents. Still, I've remained on the fence about exactly how to deal with it. Powerdown moved me off the fence.

I think what makes this book special is that the author frames peak oil within the context of a larger issue, namely, the problem and effects of overpopulation. By addressing peak oil in that manner, he's able to draw together other developing threats, showing their interrelationship and, by extension, offering a clearer and more comprehensive perspective on our relationship to the world.

Despite the troubling nature of the subject matter, it's an invigorating read. That's due to good writing and the author's clear explanations of the various subjects he weaves together. Primarily, though, he shows that despite the immediacy of our situation, hope remains. And even if we fail collectively, the proactive individual need not suffer as well.

Although the book's opening argument is simple and straightforward - through unchecked growth we've pushed humanity and the planet to the breaking point - it covers more than just overpopulation and resource depletion, e.g., politics, culture, economics, and ecology. We're facing breakdown in each of these areas. Peak oil is simply leading the charge.

Coming to terms with the convergence of these crises will define humanity's turning point from adolescence to maturity. Powerdown tells us how we got here and why - and most importantly, what our options are. Once we have a clear understanding of the broader issues underlying peak oil, we can see it's not just another doomsday prediction, nor is it the singular threat to our continued growth. It is an opportunity, if we allow it to be. It is the harbinger of our next evolutionary leap.

This is a followup to the earlier book, 'The Partys Over'. The basic thrust of this book is simple 'We are going to run out of power soon, very soon so what are we going to do?'

The basic facts of overpopulation, energy and resource depletion basic planet abuse and mismanagement are laid out in some detail tho there are many references back to 'The Partys over'. Although there can be arguments made about exactly when the lights are going to go out, there can be very little doubt that the lights are going to go out. Alternate fuels like methane or tar sands - even hydrogen are shown to be simply not practical or plentiful enough.

The possible scenarios for afterwards that are spelt out are not very attractive. From 'Ignorance is bliss' to 'The Power grab', there is going to be widespread misery for most as the world civilization teeters and then collapses.

But there is an air of inevitability that permeates this book. The author tries to be upbeat "Yes we can change the world" but all evidence seems to point to the contrary - that the world is blind and deaf and oblivious- that those leaders who should be preparing us for the coming diasaster are both uncaring and greedy.

Toynbee's theory about the rise and fall of past civilizations was challenge and response. Civilizations reach a point where due to varying factors the threat from outside is simply greater then the inner ability to respond - so the civilization collapses. From the Romans to the Mayas to the present day, the theory holds true.

Bush's "Pax Americana" - the power grab for control of the oil of the mideast is just a salvo in the the opening scene of our final act. Dwindling resources - energy food water fought over by an unmanageable population paint a bleak future. Our end is already whimpering the bang is in the foreseeable future.

Back in the mid-70's when I was in college, I read a book called "Small is Beautiful" by E.F Schumacher (I wrote a review of this book under my old name Gwydionoak). It introduced what my economics teacher called the "great heresy" of economics - the simple, undisputable message that infinite economic (or any other) growth is not possible within a finite system. He also warned about the catastrophic consequences of ignoring this simple fact where our fossil fuels were concerned. The professor warned me that Schumacher was a 'radical', but that history would ultimately prove him right - an amazing comment at the time from a professor at Brigham Young University, a school well known for its very conservative view of the world.

Well, current history HAS proven Shumacher right - in spades. His warnings went universally unheeded, and Richard Heinberg, along with a few other courageous writers, has taken on the utterly thankless task of telling us that the moment Schumacher warned us about is now here, that the world peak of oil production will occur (if it hasn't already) within the next 1-3 years, and that world production will decrease steadily and unalterably afterwards, with repercussions that will spread out rapidly geometrically to every aspect of the western industrial civilization we have come to take for granted.

Reading this book was, for me, like having a doctor tell me that I have cancer. No one wants to hear that bit of news, but if you are to survive cancer - or the massive world upheavals that will likely begin before this decade is over - you need to know exactly what your condition is, and what options you have. This is precisely what Heinberg attempts to do. He lays out what he considers to be the four most likely options for industrial society (and the war in Iraq proves beyond debate which path the Bush administration has already chosen) over the next few decades, and makes suggestions for those who wish to get through the turbulent times ahead. Heinberg's book is not flawless, as the author himself admits at the end:

"This is just one person's attempt to survey a vast, complex, and shifting terrain,and I have inevitably oversimplified it. The view I have offered is unavoidably partial, even though my goal has been to set aside personal predudices as much as I can."

He has accomplished his task.

This is NOT a pleasant book to read, or to think about, but there is good news - Cancer IS survivable. So are the times to come. Read the book. Go online - do a Google Search of 'Peak Oil.' Then get busy.

While Heinberg summarizes the lit. on oil depletion and fuel shortages, this book branches into imagined political outcomes--basically, the demise of liberal culture, the individual, and our civilization. (Examples: no oil, little fuel, population decline to 3.8 billion humans, etc.) He offers "rational" alternative end-games and scenarios, but his thinking predicates that human beings and societies are and can be "rational." If you accept that, then, OK, this analysis is for you.

He thinks and believes that policy makers and politicians are not paying attention, however; that is, by not paying attention, they are behaving irrationally. Well, duh. Then what is the importance of "rational" "powerdown" "life-boat" strategies?

The result? I thought this book was watered down and apocalyptic political science, with some power data interspersed. His other book, The Party's Over, was better.

Heinberg writes as friend who has the regrettable task of informing us our way of life is over. He gives a concise, readable account of why change is coming. In short, the age of cheap oil is soon to end and viable substitutes (if they are to appear at all) are decades away. We are now at the point, or we will soon be at the point, where supply cannot keep up with demand. Demand is rising (thanks in part to the industrialization of China and India) and supply is at its peak. This new reality will have disastrous consequences for our economic, political and social institutions. "It literally changes everything."

The magnitude of the impending disaster is a function of population buildup (6.4 billion, well beyond the carrying capacity of the earth), resource depletion, declining per-capita food production, global climate change, and economic and political instability. "Taken together, they constitute the most severe challenge our species has ever faced. They represent not merely a likely culmination of human history; in their ongoing and potential environmental impacts, they also may collectively signal one of the most momentous events in all of geological time."

Alarmist nonsense? The sky is falling? Some say so. The energy well is bottomless, some say. For Heinberg the writing is on the wall and it is past time to respond. He lays out four possible responses: 1) Resource wars, 2) Global self-limitation, 3) Denial, 4) Small-scale sustainable communities. Option one is the destructive path our current political leaders are pursuing. Option two will simply marginalize self-limiters unless there is global cooperation (tragedy of the commons). Option three is a non-starter. "Our real problem is that we are trapped in a perpetual growth machine." We are degrading the long-term carrying capacity of the environment, so more cheap energy (if it could be found) would only delay, and exacerbate the inevitable. Option four is the prudent choice those who have the will to work toward a local community that can preserve our highest human values and ideals.

Heinberg is not the only one sounding the alarm, but his account is compelling, his tone is human and his writing is fluid. Powerdown is an excellent introduction to the topic of peak oil.

Author Richard Heinberg approaches his topic, the consequences of peak oil and the final stop of the cheap oil gravy train, with ecological sensibility and moral clarity. These two characteristics, coupled with a straightforward prose style, make for compelling reading, as well as for serious reflection on the hard choices that we most likely face in the near future.

Heinberg's introductory chapter recaps his earlier book, "The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies." In it, he describes a century's uncritical addiction to cheap oil and outlines the impending crises it has wrought, crises for which we must prepare and to which we will soon respond, voluntarily or otherwise.

After this brief introduction (which basically assumes the truth of the peak oil dilemma, a definite problem for those who are still unconvinced), Heinberg lays out four paths that we may take, both individually and collectively, in response to the threats of dwindling power supplies, climbing global temperatures, etc.

1. Last One Standing - In this scenario, which Heinberg glumly admits is the default scenario given our inability (or worse, unwillingness) to consider the reality of our natural constraints and our predilection for settling things militarily, the powers of the world scramble in their rush to control the world's remaining energy resources. The US misadventure in Iraq, and the current threats to Iran, are part and parcel of this "option," which, as most sane people will admit, doesn't sound like much of an option at all but is, instead, the path of least resistance. As Heinberg notes, this is "a breathtakingly alarming prospect" that may lead to "the general destruction of human civilization and most of the ecological life-support system of the planet" (p. 55). (And for those who would dismiss this speculation as merely the work of a green handwringer, he cites a Pentagon report featured in Fortune magazine that sketches the basic outlines of this kind of "option." If the top brass are seriously thinking about it, then so should we citizens.)

2. Powerdown - This scenario is all about radically reforming the human heart, so as to replace a global culture of greed and self-interest with one of collective interest, sharing, and community. Important components of this powerdown strategy include limiting the size of the human population, increasing the efficiency of our energy consumption, replacing planned obsolescence with enduring quality, and returning global agriculture from its contemporary dependence on fossil fuels to its sustainable, organic roots. Of course, these changes necessitate a change in our underlying economic principles, so that eternal growth is seen as a suicidal imperative and an ecological impossibility, which will in turn necessitate changes in our social and political organization. Because these radical changes will have to be implemented quickly, Heinberg realizes that something like Lenin's dictatorship of the proletariat will have to be formed, presumably of like-minded folks of ecological sensibility and moral clarity. Alas, this option seems to me to be a combination of wishful thinking and highly questionable forms and uses of power; as anyone with a sense of history knows, such vanguards tend not to dissolve of their own accord and folks who aim at radically transforming the human heart end up getting crucified. Nevertheless, the scenario is one we may face out of necessity rather than choice, and so it is essential to come to grips with it.

3. Waiting for the Magic Elixir - This describes the option, if it can be called that, of waiting for the technoscience and free market cavalries to deliver the solution to our problems. Because we've muddled through before, goes the argument, we will surely do so again. This option includes all the hullabaloo about the new hydrogen economy, or abiotic oil, or tar sands, or zero-point energy, etc. None of these options take factors like ERoEI into account, for example, but more problematic, they seek to tackle the problem solely from the supply-side. If we don't work on the demand-side, argues Heinberg, we will merely forestall the crises of overpopulation and overconsumption that come from living beyond our ecological means. Needless to say, Heinberg has little patience for this option, seeing in it a self-centeredness that is morally reprehensible.

4. Building Lifeboats - In this final option, Heinberg echoes Morris Berman's Twilight of American Civilization in calling for a counterculture of "new monks" who will preserve those aspects of human science and arts that are worth preserving. In short, we will need to have small communities in which traditional and primitive technologies and skills are mated to contemporary knowledge of science, politics, literature, etc. Again, this is a tall order for such a short amount of time, but at least this challenge sounds possible and interesting.

In conclusion, Heinberg argues that the world's elites will probably play up option three while tacitly working on option one. Most of the outspoken opposition, the so-called "Other Superpower" of the anti-globalization, etc. activists, will choose a variant of option two, but they are limited because of their resistance to admittedly problematic ideas, specifically those involving population control. The rest of us folks here on the ground, living our modest middle class lives in our modest single-family homes, will suffer the impact of option one (e.g., sending our children to die in oil wars, watching as formerly unmentionables like torture become acceptable again, etc.) while also being able to reduce our own consumption, to reach out and form new small-scale communities, and to increase our practices of cultural preservation. None of these options looks pretty to those of us reared in the age of opportunity, but if what Heinberg and others argue about peak oil is true, these options may be all we have.

I like the idea of this book, I like the title, and I like the first 25% or so. The rest is not good, since this book simply dies after page 54, and so overall it is a bust. Starting with lofty and worthwhile goals, it degenerates into a diatribe against Bush, then goes on to dance around the issues. The author has inserted all this Bush stuff, but then avoids answering his own questions about "powerdown". Somehow, the author got off track while writing the book. The book has gained some fame, and in retrospect I suspect largely for the author's earlier works. I am disappointed to have to give this book just 3 stars, about what it really merits.

The opening sections are strong. He presents clear, logical, and entertaining arguments about our use of oil, the decline in discoveries, increasing demand in the US and China, etc. He presents graphs of new oil discoveries versus time, etc. All clear, but not new. Almost every thinking person knows that hydrocarbon reserves are finite and demand is increasing exponentially. Demand is on a collision course with supply. Our oil-coal-gas economy cannot be sustained, and even if we had infinite supplies, it would pollute the planet, and most know that CO2 leveles are rising every year. We knew this before we picked up the book. In any case, that is okay, it sets a foundation for a possible discussion that might follow. If they author had stayed the course and written the whole book as he did in this part, we would have a beautiful 5 star effort. Someone else picking up the book, and just reading this part, might conclude that it is a great 5 star book; it is not great; it is not even good; keep reading, he loses focus.

He has six sections: one on energy sources, one called "Last One Standing" on conflicts, "Powerdown", "Magic Elixir", "Lifeboats", and "Choices".

After the first section, the author poses questions, makes many references to history, makes some dire warnings about our loss of freedoms, etc., but he never answers his own questions. They are left dangling. Instead, he goes off on tangents quoting some other author or studies, inserting those into his book sometimes in table form or in point form, some information is simply exctracted from decades old books from the early 1970s or similar such as the basic terms of the Kyoto protocol,etc., and often it is just to back up his questions, not to give an answer to the central question: what do we do to "powerdown"? Where are we going? It is all very, very, frustrating to read, and in my humble opinon mostly a waste of time after page 54.

The second section is dedicated to attacking Bush and Iraq. Like many he blames Bush and Cheney, that is okay, and they certainly are worthy of that blame, mismanagement of trade, the budget, an illegal invasion of Iraq. But what has that got to do with finite oil reserves and changing our future economy, i.e.: "powerdown" and "options"? In the final analysis not much, and Iraq is largely a distraction. With or without Iraq, we will face oil shortages, and probably sooner, not later. The war might cause small changes in timing, but in the end we need new technology and conservation.

In any case, there are few hints of what we should do or how we might solve the problems: just questions and circular and frustrating philosophical arguments. When the author talks about "powerdown", where do we power down to, i.e.: what level? Is it 1000 watts, or 500 watts, or just 100 watts per capita? Presently we use 11,000 watts on average 24-7 in the US and 5,000 Watts in Europe. How do we get "there" - the "powerdown" level, whatever that is? What do we eliminate? Agriculture? Heating? Education?Transportation? Cancer therapy? All social and government services? All electronics? Aviation? How do we look after 5 to 10 billion people, without having every continent looking like Africa?

He briefly mentions carbon tax credits, durable consumer goods, and solar villages, but these are no solutions. His other solution of fewer people and less energy consumption per capita is self evident, and we do not need the five chapters of discussion to make that point.

Compare the present book with another book The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future by Hermann Scheer, a German politician and a winner of many international honours. Sheer's arguments are also a bit flawed. He is a socialist at heart, wants to cut energy consumption for philosophical reasons and also to make it easier to rely on solar energy, and he likes to quote Karl Marx. Scheer jumps the gun in terms of anticipating technical innovation in solar, but at least he presents some clear and specific arguments, clear goals, clear energy production numbers, clear energy generating processes, with answers to questions.

Sure, the first few chapters are 5 star, but then for some unknown reason, the author lost his way. Unfortunately, the book is a bust and mostly a waste of money. I do not recommend buying.

Better books for green reading: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows - and perhaps that book or the original is a basis for the present book, The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future by Hermann Scheer, a good book by Howard C. Hayden on Solar Energy (ignore his title!), Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond, Fueling the Future: How the Battle Over Energy Is Changing Everything by Andrew Heintzman (Editor), Evan Solomon (Editor), The Solar Electric House: Energy for the Environmentally-Responsive, Energy-Independent Home by Steven J. Strong, Renewable Energy Handbook for Homeowners: The Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Making (and Selling) Your Own Power from the Sun, Wind and Water by William H. Kemp,Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons, and finally The Discovery of Global Warming by Spencer R. Weart. The last author is associated with the American Institute of Physics.
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I was impressed and educated reading Heinberg's book. He trod paths that other writers have refused to tred-particularly his final chapter where he dares to discuss the subject that even "The Movement" refuses to confront-population and the carrying capacity of the planet. As he admits, the subject is taboo because, even though it is the single most important aspect of the coming calamity, the Movement won't deal with it because of the inevitable political fallout from the religious memberbs of the progressive faction of American politics. Where is the value of democracy if subjects can not be discussed for fear that discussion will alienate certain people and therefore force them into sidesteping hugely important issues.

Heinberg deals with many issues that are not quite so confronting in this wonderful book and no, I do not think these topics have all been dealt with in other earlier books by other authors. Of course, if a person chooses to educate themselves particularly in this area of planetary collapse then perhaps much of Heinberg's writing is treading over old material. However, if a general reader has only recently begun reading in this area of planetary collapse then Heinberg's information and interpretations are eye opening.

Perhaps I am poorly read in the field of Peak Oil and its comcomitant inenevitable desatruction of capitalism as an engine of continued indusatrial progress. I have lived through a number of years of last century and nothing that Heinberg says struck a poor note with this collection of information. Everything he wrote is totally in keeping with my previous information. I do not believe that capitalism with its market economy or technology or prayer is going to stop the train that has been set in motion. How we deal with the outcome is the only question and democracy will not provide the answers we need for the same reason that The Movement will not deal with overpopulation. So yes-we are doomed to something far away from the life we are now leading.

Heinberg writes that twenty years ago the Club of Rome said the world has fifty years before the life systems of the planet are damaged beyond repair. I see nothing on the horizone to give me any hope that this prediction won't happen.