9 of 10 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Brilliant: A beacon to light the way and a compass showing the general direction of things to come, January 31, 2006
This review is from: Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World (Hardcover)
Few times does a book have such a powerful effect on me. Not coincidentally is this 2005 book by Wharton School Publishing titled "Powerful Times". The book is written by the CEO of the Global Business Network, a group self-described as a "future-oriented network and consulting firm".
Any assumptions you come to the book with will be strongly challenged, not to convince you to steer left or right, but rather to open up your mind to one clear and indisputable truth: these are changing times, and we might as well realize that, in order to be able to deal with the world we are embarked on and the world of the coming decade.
Kelly presents the reader with a deep yet easy-to-follow set of trends, most of which are represented by opposite forces pulling in different directions. Chances are you may identify yourself with one of the forces in most of the trends, yet Kelly's effectiveness lies in his ability to present all forces in a very balanced way, which allows you to open yourself to what others may be thinking.
Once all the trends have been covered, he goes into what he considers to be the three most likely scenarios to take place in the coming decade, depending on the outcome of two basic yet fundamental crossroads we are in the process of going through. He emphasizes that no single scenario should be expected to prevail in a unique way, but rather to dominate the scene, "sprinkled" with elements from the other scenarios.
Finally, he provides the reader with an extensive framework for him to assess his place and that of his company in this new world we're entering. This framework, along with a handful of additional tools and resources, is provided through the book's web site at www.PowerfulTimes.net.
I cannot do less but give the book five shining stars for shedding a brilliant light on some of today's impossibly contradictory issues, and giving us readers a tool with which to steer through the troubled waters of the coming decade.
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6 of 6 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
An Uncertain World Creates Challenges, January 4, 2006
This review is from: Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World (Hardcover)
More than 500 years ago, Niccolo Machiavelli, Florence's Second Chancellor, was asked to investigate why Pandolfo Petrucci, the Lord of nearby Siena, was so inconsistent in his behavior. Machiavelli was impressed by his explanation.
"Wishing to make as few mistakes as possible, I conduct my government day by day and arrange my affairs hour by hour, because the times are more powerful than our brains."
His response resonates today. The world changes at what seems to be an unprecedented rate. Each shift and rift creates profound anxiety and deep confusion. Yet the worlds systems, be they financial, technological, social, cultural or political, continue to evolve and develop at an accelerating pace.
Eamonn Kelly, the CEO of the strategy consultancy Global Business Network, offers seven "dynamic tensions that he believes will reshape human life in the coming decades. They are:
* Prosperity and Decline
* Power and Vulnerability
* Intangible and Physical
* Clarity and Craziness
* Acceleration and Pushback
* People and Planet
* Secular and Sacred.
The "either/or" thinking that worked in the past, he postulates, is no longer effective. The ability to think in terms of "both/and" will be valuable to discerning in the future what is occurring around us.
"The test of a first-rate intelligence," wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald in words that could not ring truer today "is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function."
Many of us fail the first part. We cannot hold two opposing ideas. If Kelly's thesis is correct, this is an ability we will have to quickly acquire if we are to make sense of an increasingly complex and confusing world.
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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Finding Clarity (and Growth) in an Age of Transformation, November 21, 2005
This review is from: Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World (Hardcover)
The world has always been uncertain. But, says Eamonn Kelly, not like this.
Technological, financial, social, economic, cultural, and political systems are accelerating towards ever-greater complexity and interdependence. The changes we see are profoundly paradoxical: as humans, we seek patterns, but our simplifications obscure more than they clarify, and our "either/or" mindsets risk catastrophe. No single actor - no person, institution, ideology, marketplace, religion, region, or nation - is powerful enough to control the future. Meanwhile, deep, fundamental dynamics may be unraveling much of what we've taken for granted since the Enlightenment dawned some 400 years ago.
In his new book, Kelly aims to help leaders make sense of this extraordinary moment in history and safely navigate its shoals. That's no small goal. But Kelly brings a powerful tool to bear: the scenario planning approach GBN has used to help hundreds of companies and governments manage the future.
Scenarios organize perceptions about the future into stories that are easy to understand and work with. They make it easier to consider alternate futures and reflect diverse perspectives. By recognizing the potential for sharp discontinuities, they encourage decision makers to consider the unthinkable - invaluable in an era when the unthinkable is occurring with frightening regularity.
To frame his scenarios, Kelly identifies seven "dynamic tensions": paradoxical forces he sees reshaping the world. For instance, the secular worldview continues to spread, largely driven by "rational" business practices. But, of course, fundamentalism is also resurging - from the madrasahs of Pakistan to the megachurches of Texas and California. Progress in computing, biotech, and nanotech is accelerating: these fields are becoming "mutually catalytic" and promising to transform human beings at the most fundamental levels. Meanwhile, the "pushback" grows, creating surprising alliances. (Will Bill Joy's views on nanotech converge with George Bush's views on stem cell research?)
From a geopolitical standpoint, while the U.S. is well-positioned to retain military dominance, it faces frightening new vulnerabilities, both perceived and real. Meanwhile, writes Kelly, overall global prosperity appears to be widening. But 21 countries lost ground in the 1990s - and, even in the developed world, millions feel more vulnerable than they have in generations.
Some of Kelly's dynamic tensions are less familiar, but also vitally important. For example, while value will continue to migrate towards the intangible - services, experiences, relationships - improving physical infrastructure will take on ever-greater urgency. The world is growing more transparent, thanks to a deepening web of computers, networks, sensors, and surveillance systems. However, "conspiracy theories and falsehoods will travel the world instantaneously," and the technologies of transparency will also promote more sophisticated theft and fraud.
Meanwhile, beneath it all, arguably the greatest dynamic tension of all: the troubled relationship between humans and their planet - a relationship complicated by massive migrations, demographic shifts, and the intertwined issues of energy and climate.
For some, successfully navigating these tensions may seem unlikely, if not impossible. However, Kelly's reasonably optimistic. He sees especially significant progress in two key areas: "how we relate - the realm of governance - and how we create - the realm of innovation."
Top-down, "Taylorist" organizations are being supplanted (or at least supplemented) by structures that are more fluid, self-organizing, decentralized, and collaborative. These new structures may be capable of handling change with far greater suppleness and resiliency. In Kelly's view, the move from organizational "citadels" to "webs" - while not inexorable - is currently moving more rapidly than many decision makers recognize.
Notwithstanding the Bush administration's unilateralist instincts, Kelly also envisions the gradual emergence of de facto "global governance." Not sinister black helicopters or overweening centralized bureaucracies, but the organic result of "experimentation across a diverse range of processes, approaches, policies, actions, and actors that are overlapping and interlocking in a complex and evolving system." That's important progress, believes Kelly. But "piecemeal" global governance won't self-optimize: to tackle and avoid systemic crises, leaders will need to work together far more consciously and proactively.
Down at "street level," Kelly uncovers some surprising innovations in local governance. In British Columbia, 160 randomly selected citizens have recommended important changes in the province's electoral processes. In Zeguo, China, the local Communist Party secretary offered detailed briefings about several proposed municipal projects to 257 citizens, then polled them on which projects should proceed. In Brazil, Guatemala, and Mexico, enlightened local governments are experimenting with new ways to involve citizens year-round, not just on election day.
Meanwhile, notes Kelly, we'll increasingly look beyond large Western corporations and institutions for tomorrow's most important innovations: those that improve sustainability, extend learning, and address the unmet needs of 4 billion people. Many of them will come from "places finding their power... those parts of the world that are ready to `come of age' as creators, to be exporters as well as importers of breakthroughs."
Kelly scenarios posit major shifts in economic power; even New American Century envisions China achieving unprecedented success, albeit by Western rules. In fact, the emergence of new regions is a theme that recurs repeatedly throughout Powerful Times. Observes Kelly: "Some of our most basic assumptions about the rules of the global economic game will increasingly come under attack in the coming decade."
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